Section 1.2 Suppose A 1, A 2,..., A k, are k events. The k events are called mutually exclusive if The k events are called mutually exhaustive if A i 

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Theoretical Probability
Advertisements

Lecture 13 Elements of Probability CSCI – 1900 Mathematics for Computer Science Fall 2014 Bill Pine.
1. Probability of an Outcome 2. Experimental Probability 3. Fundamental Properties of Probabilities 4. Addition Principle 5. Inclusion-Exclusion Principle.
Rare Events, Probability and Sample Size. Rare Events An event E is rare if its probability is very small, that is, if Pr{E} ≈ 0. Rare events require.
Copyright © 2006 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Pearson Addison-Wesley Slide
0 0 Review Probability Axioms –Non-negativity P(A)≥0 –Additivity P(A U B) =P(A)+ P(B), if A and B are disjoint. –Normalization P(Ω)=1 Independence of two.
Probability Sample Space Diagrams.
Copyright © Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 8.6 Probability.
8.7 Probability. Ex 1 Find the sample space for each of the following. One coin is tossed. Two coins are tossed. Three coins are tossed.
Section 7.4 (partially). Section Summary Expected Value Linearity of Expectations Independent Random Variables.
Section 1.5 Events A and B are called independent events if and only if P(A  B) = P(A) P(B)  P(A) = P(A | B)  P(B) = P(B | A) Events A, B, and C are.
Mutually Exclusive and Inclusive Events
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY and INDEPENDENCE In many experiments we have partial information about the outcome, when we use this info the sample space becomes.
Math 310 Section 7.1 Probability. What is a probability? Def. In common usage, the word "probability" is used to mean the chance that a particular event.
Conditional Probability and Independence Section 3.6.
The Practice of Statistics, Fourth Edition.
Conditional Probability
Probability and Statistics Dr. Saeid Moloudzadeh Axioms of Probability/ Basic Theorems 1 Contents Descriptive Statistics Axioms of Probability.
Sets, Combinatorics, Probability, and Number Theory Mathematical Structures for Computer Science Chapter 3 Copyright © 2006 W.H. Freeman & Co.MSCS SlidesProbability.
12.4 Probability of Compound Events
STAT 211 – 019 Dan Piett West Virginia University Lecture 3.
Chapter 1:Independent and Dependent Events
Basic Probability Rules Let’s Keep it Simple. A Probability Event An event is one possible outcome or a set of outcomes of a random phenomenon. For example,
Probability Probability is the measure of how likely an event is. An event is one or more outcomes of an experiment. An outcome is the result of a single.
Chapter 7 Probability. 7.1 The Nature of Probability.
1.4 Equally Likely Outcomes. The outcomes of a sample space are called equally likely if all of them have the same chance of occurrence. It is very difficult.
Copyright © Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 8.6 Probability.
Mutually Exclusive and Inclusive Events
Slide 5-1 Chapter 5 Probability and Random Variables.
Copyright © Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. Elementary Probability Theory 5.
Probability and Simulation Rules in Probability. Probability Rules 1. Any probability is a number between 0 and 1 0 ≤ P[A] ≤ 1 0 ≤ P[A] ≤ 1 2. The sum.
Probability Prof. Richard Beigel Math C067 September 27, 2006.
EXAMPLE 1 Find the probability of A or B
Lesson 8.7 Page #1-29 (ODD), 33, 35, 41, 43, 47, 49, (ODD) Pick up the handout on the table.
Probability Basics Section Starter Roll two dice and record the sum shown. Repeat until you have done 20 rolls. Write a list of all the possible.
Section 7.2.  Mutually Exclusive: pulling a jack or queen card from the deck P(a U b) = P(a) + P(b) In general, Reminder  U means union means intersection.
Sixth lecture Concepts of Probabilities. Random Experiment Can be repeated (theoretically) an infinite number of times Has a well-defined set of possible.
How likely is it that…..?. The Law of Large Numbers says that the more times you repeat an experiment the closer the relative frequency of an event will.
Probability Rules In the following sections, we will transition from looking at the probability of one event to the probability of multiple events (compound.
Do Now. Introduction to Probability Objective: find the probability of an event Homework: Probability Worksheet.
METHODS OF ASSIGNING PROBABILITY. The Uniform Probability Model.
9-7Independent and Dependent Events 9-7 Independent and Dependent Events (pg ) Indicator: D7.
Probabilities of Disjoint and Overlapping Events notes.
§2 Frequency and probability 2.1The definitions and properties of frequency and properties.
Week 21 Rules of Probability for all Corollary: The probability of the union of any two events A and B is Proof: … If then, Proof:
Warm Up: Quick Write Which is more likely, flipping exactly 3 heads in 10 coin flips or flipping exactly 4 heads in 5 coin flips ?
Probability and Simulation The Study of Randomness.
Chapter 7 Sets & Probability Section 7.3 Introduction to Probability.
When a normal, unbiased, 6-sided die is thrown, the numbers 1 to 6 are possible. These are the ONLY ‘events’ possible. This means these are EXHAUSTIVE.
Theoretical Probability
Random Variables Lecture Lecturer : FATEN AL-HUSSAIN.
PROBABILITY 1. Basic Terminology 2 Probability 3  Probability is the numerical measure of the likelihood that an event will occur  The probability.
6.2 – Probability Models It is often important and necessary to provide a mathematical description or model for randomness.
2-6 Probability Theoretical & Experimental. Probability – how likely it is that something will happen – Has a range from 0 – 1 – 0 means it definitely.
Counting and Probability. Imagine tossing two coins and observing whether 0, 1, or 2 heads are obtained. Below are the results after 50 tosses Tossing.
Discrete Math Section 16.1 Find the sample space and probability of multiple events The probability of an event is determined empirically if it is based.
Adding Probabilities 12-5
Mathematics Department
Lesson 10.4 Probability of Disjoint and Overlapping Events
Subtopic : 10.1 Events and Probability
Statistics 300: Introduction to Probability and Statistics
Probability Part 2.
Copyright © 1998, Triola, Elementary Statistics Addison Wesley Longman
Mutually Exclusive and Inclusive Events
Probability.
7.1 Experiments, Sample Spaces, & Events
Warm-Up #10 Wednesday 2/24 Find the probability of randomly picking a 3 from a deck of cards, followed by face card, with replacement. Dependent or independent?
Mutually Exclusive and Inclusive Events
A random experiment gives rise to possible outcomes, but any particular outcome is uncertain – “random”. For example, tossing a coin… we know H or T will.
Presentation transcript:

Section 1.2 Suppose A 1, A 2,..., A k, are k events. The k events are called mutually exclusive if The k events are called mutually exhaustive if A i  A j =  whenever i  j. A 1  A 2 ...  A k = S the outcome space. Important definitions and theorems in the text: The definition of probability. Definition P(A) = 1 – P(A / ) Theorem P(  ) = 0 Theorem If A  B, then P(A)  P(B) Theorem For each event A, P(A)  1 Theorem If A and B are any two events, then P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A  B) Theorem If A, B, and C are any three events, then P(A  B  C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) – P(A  B) – P(A  C) – P(B  C) + P(A  B  C) Theorem 1.2-6

1. (a) (b) (c) (d) Find the outcome space for each of the random variables defined, and indicate whether or not the outcomes are equally likely. The random variable X is defined to be the number of spots facing upward when a fair die is rolled once. {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}The outcomes are equally likely. The random variable X is defined to be the total number of spots facing upward when two fair dice are each rolled once. {2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12}The outcomes are not equally likely. The random variable X is defined to be the number of heads facing upward when a fair penny is tossed once. {0, 1}The outcomes are equally likely. The random variable X is defined to be the number of heads facing upward when 10 fair pennies are each tossed once. {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}The outcomes are not equally likely.

2. (a) (b) The number facing upward is observed when a fair 20-sided die is rolled once. Define following events: A 1 = the number is a perfect square = {1, 4, 9, 16} A 2 = there is no number = { } =  A 3 = the number is 9 = {9} A 4 = the number is odd = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 19} A 5 = the number is prime = {2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 17, 19} Find the outcome space for this experiment, and indicate whether or not the outcomes are equally likely. {1, 2, 3, …, 20}The outcomes are equally likely. Find P(A 1 ), which is the probability that the number is a perfect square, and find P(A 1 / ), which is the probability that the number is not a perfect square. P(A 1 ) =4/20 = 1/5P(A 1 / ) = 1  1/5 = 4/5

(c)Find P(A 2 ), which is the probability that there is no number. P(A 2 ) = P(  ) = 0 (d)Find P(A 3 ), which is the probability that the number is 9. P(A 3 ) =1/20 (e)Find P(A 4 ), which is the probability that the number is odd. P(A 4 ) =10/20 = 1/2 (f)Find P(A 5 ), which is the probability that the number is prime. P(A 5 ) =8/20 = 2/5 (g) Find P(A 1  A 5 ), which is the probability that the number is either a perfect square or a prime. P(A 1  A 5 ) = P(A 1 ) + P(A 5 ) = (h) Find P(A 4  A 5 ), which is the probability that the number is either odd or a prime. 4/20 + 8/20 = 12/20 = 3/5 P(A 4  A 5 ) =P(A 4 ) + P(A 5 )  P(A 4  A 5 ) = 10/20 + 8/20  7/20 = 11/20