H E A L T H C A R E F O R E C A S T C O N F E R E N C E, U N I V E R S I T Y O F C A L I F O R N I A, I R V I N E, C A, F E B R U A R Y 1 9, Jim Glassman, When fear rules …

H E A L T H C A R E F O R E C A S T C O N F E R E N C E, U N I V E R S I T Y O F C A L I F O R N I A, I R V I N E, C A, F E B R U A R Y 1 9, Jim Glassman, Reality check … it’s bad, but don’t get crazy Misery Index = GDP gap + inflation (percentage points) Sources: US Department of Commerce; NBER Macroeconomic Database

H E A L T H C A R E F O R E C A S T C O N F E R E N C E, U N I V E R S I T Y O F C A L I F O R N I A, I R V I N E, C A, F E B R U A R Y 1 9, Jim Glassman, Three storms …

H E A L T H C A R E F O R E C A S T C O N F E R E N C E, U N I V E R S I T Y O F C A L I F O R N I A, I R V I N E, C A, F E B R U A R Y 1 9, Jim Glassman, First things first, find the common thread … Real GDP in selected regions (percent change from four quarters earlier) Source: JPMorgan Chase & Co.

H E A L T H C A R E F O R E C A S T C O N F E R E N C E, U N I V E R S I T Y O F C A L I F O R N I A, I R V I N E, C A, F E B R U A R Y 1 9, Jim Glassman, (1) Petroleum convulsion …

H E A L T H C A R E F O R E C A S T C O N F E R E N C E, U N I V E R S I T Y O F C A L I F O R N I A, I R V I N E, C A, F E B R U A R Y 1 9, Jim Glassman, The future’s energy hungry … the future, not the now Global oil demand (millions of barrels daily) Petroleum, WTI (dollars per barrel) Source: American Petroleum Institute

H E A L T H C A R E F O R E C A S T C O N F E R E N C E, U N I V E R S I T Y O F C A L I F O R N I A, I R V I N E, C A, F E B R U A R Y 1 9, Jim Glassman, Energy … once a headwind, now a tailwind … for many Contribution to real GDP growth (contribution to percent change from four quarters earlier) Sources: US Department of Commerce; JPMorgan Chase &Co.

H E A L T H C A R E F O R E C A S T C O N F E R E N C E, U N I V E R S I T Y O F C A L I F O R N I A, I R V I N E, C A, F E B R U A R Y 1 9, Jim Glassman, (2) The housing debacle

H E A L T H C A R E F O R E C A S T C O N F E R E N C E, U N I V E R S I T Y O F C A L I F O R N I A, I R V I N E, C A, F E B R U A R Y 1 9, Jim Glassman, Ground Zero … inflated valuations are history Nominal income per household and house prices (ratio to 1970 Q1 level) Sources: Standard & Poor’s; US Department of Commerce

H E A L T H C A R E F O R E C A S T C O N F E R E N C E, U N I V E R S I T Y O F C A L I F O R N I A, I R V I N E, C A, F E B R U A R Y 1 9, Jim Glassman, Here too, a headwind is slowly dying down Contribution of new home building to real GDP growth (percentage points over the past four quarters) Source: US Department of Commerce

H E A L T H C A R E F O R E C A S T C O N F E R E N C E, U N I V E R S I T Y O F C A L I F O R N I A, I R V I N E, C A, F E B R U A R Y 1 9, Jim Glassman, (3) Fear … easy to inflame, hard to tame

H E A L T H C A R E F O R E C A S T C O N F E R E N C E, U N I V E R S I T Y O F C A L I F O R N I A, I R V I N E, C A, F E B R U A R Y 1 9, Jim Glassman, All the things that did this … Market value of all publicly traded stocks (Wilshire 5000 index) Source: Dow Jones

H E A L T H C A R E F O R E C A S T C O N F E R E N C E, U N I V E R S I T Y O F C A L I F O R N I A, I R V I N E, C A, F E B R U A R Y 1 9, Jim Glassman, … turned the lights out last fall US real GDP (percent change from four quarters earlier) Source: NBER recession bars; US Department of Commerce; various academic sources

H E A L T H C A R E F O R E C A S T C O N F E R E N C E, U N I V E R S I T Y O F C A L I F O R N I A, I R V I N E, C A, F E B R U A R Y 1 9, Jim Glassman, In defense of policy activism …

H E A L T H C A R E F O R E C A S T C O N F E R E N C E, U N I V E R S I T Y O F C A L I F O R N I A, I R V I N E, C A, F E B R U A R Y 1 9, Jim Glassman, Three principles … 1. A stitch in time saves nine 2. The cost of an underemployed economy— the “opportunity cost”—mounts rapidly … currently running $1 trillion annually and counting 3. Lost global opportunities amplify the costs

H E A L T H C A R E F O R E C A S T C O N F E R E N C E, U N I V E R S I T Y O F C A L I F O R N I A, I R V I N E, C A, F E B R U A R Y 1 9, Jim Glassman, Three historical examples … 1. The 1930s 2. The Japanese response in the 1990s 3. The US response in the 2000s

H E A L T H C A R E F O R E C A S T C O N F E R E N C E, U N I V E R S I T Y O F C A L I F O R N I A, I R V I N E, C A, F E B R U A R Y 1 9, Jim Glassman, The absolute budget numbers … yes, horrific US fiscal budget (balance over the most recent 12 months, billions of dollars) Sources: NBER; US Department of Commerce; Congressional Budget Office

H E A L T H C A R E F O R E C A S T C O N F E R E N C E, U N I V E R S I T Y O F C A L I F O R N I A, I R V I N E, C A, F E B R U A R Y 1 9, Jim Glassman, Relative budget numbers … big but less scary US fiscal budget (balance over the most recent 12 months, % of GDP) Sources: NBER; Congressional Budget Office; JPMorgan Chase & Co.

H E A L T H C A R E F O R E C A S T C O N F E R E N C E, U N I V E R S I T Y O F C A L I F O R N I A, I R V I N E, C A, F E B R U A R Y 1 9, Jim Glassman, Bold is justified, when you can say “inflation, R.I.P.” …

H E A L T H C A R E F O R E C A S T C O N F E R E N C E, U N I V E R S I T Y O F C A L I F O R N I A, I R V I N E, C A, F E B R U A R Y 1 9, Jim Glassman, Articles of surrender conclude a long Fed battle … 10-year inflation expectations (percent) Sources: Bloomberg; Federal Reserve Board

H E A L T H C A R E F O R E C A S T C O N F E R E N C E, U N I V E R S I T Y O F C A L I F O R N I A, I R V I N E, C A, F E B R U A R Y 1 9, Jim Glassman, … and price competition will be stiff for a while Unemployment rate (percent of the labor force) Sources: NBER recession bars; US Department of Labor

H E A L T H C A R E F O R E C A S T C O N F E R E N C E, U N I V E R S I T Y O F C A L I F O R N I A, I R V I N E, C A, F E B R U A R Y 1 9, Jim Glassman, Investors get it 10-year inflation expectations (percent) Sources: Bloomberg; Federal Reserve Board

H E A L T H C A R E F O R E C A S T C O N F E R E N C E, U N I V E R S I T Y O F C A L I F O R N I A, I R V I N E, C A, F E B R U A R Y 1 9, Jim Glassman, … but fear begets opportunity

H E A L T H C A R E F O R E C A S T C O N F E R E N C E, U N I V E R S I T Y O F C A L I F O R N I A, I R V I N E, C A, F E B R U A R Y 1 9, Jim Glassman, The future exists … when we stumble, we always rebound … US GDP gap (actual less potential real GDP as a percent of potential real GDP) Source: NBER; US Department of Commerce

H E A L T H C A R E F O R E C A S T C O N F E R E N C E, U N I V E R S I T Y O F C A L I F O R N I A, I R V I N E, C A, F E B R U A R Y 1 9, Jim Glassman, … it’s why level heads say be brave when others fear Value (ratio of Wilshire 5000 to after-tax GDP profits) Wilshire 5000, profits (ratio to 1952 Q1 level) Sources: US Department of Commerce; Dow Jones

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