Hans von Storch, Frauke Feser, Ralf Weisse and Matthias Zahn Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Center, Germany and KlimaCampus, U of Hamburg, Germany Reconstruction of regional climate and climate change in past decades: CoastDat

A set of model data of recent, ongoing and possible future coastal climate (h indcasts , reconstructions and scenarios for the future, e.g., ) Based on experiences and activities in a number of national and international projects (e.g. WASA, HIPOCAS, STOWASUS, PRUDENCE) Presently contains atmospheric and oceanographic parameter (e.g. near-surface winds, pressure, temperature and humidity; upper air meteorological data such as geopotential height, cloud cover, temperature and humidity; oceanographic data such as sea states (wave heights, periods, directions, spectra) or water levels (tides and surges) and depth averaged currents, ocean temperatures) Covers different geographical regions (presently mainly the North Sea and parts of the Northeast Atlantic; other areas such as the Baltic Sea, subarctic regions or E-Asia are to be included) contact: Ralf Weisse What is coastDat?

Overview a) Construction of CoastDat b) Validation of CoastDat c) Applications

Downscaling cascade. run with NCEP,

global model Well resolved Insufficiently resolved Spatial scales variance

Well resolved Insufficiently resolved Spatial scales variance regional model Added value

Concept of Dynamical Downscaling RCM Physiographic detail 3-d vector of state Known large scale state projection of full state on large- scale scale Large-scale (spectral) nudging

simulated Extreme wind speeds over sea – simulated and recorded

Hourly data, 50 km grid,

Annual mean winter high waters Cuxhaven red – reconstruction, black – observations Interannual Variability Water Levels (Weisse and Plüß 2006)

Applications 1.N European Storm Climate and related issues (incl. industrial applications) 2.Polar Lows in the North Atlantic 3.Polar Lows in North Pacific 4.Typhoons in E Asia 5. Pathways of gasoline lead pollution

wind waves Changing significant wave height, ,75, 90, 95, 99 and 99.9%iles of significant wave heights (m) and linear trends

Some applications of coastDat - Ship design - Problem:. RoRo liners operating on fixed routes. Operation time critical - Idea:. Optimization of velocity profile taking environmental conditions into account (e.g. water depth, wave height, wave angle) - Example:. 200 m RoRo liner Zeebrügge-Immingham. Compared to conventional approach delayed in 7% of time; only in 0.5% more than 30 min. Reduced operation costs (200 TEUR/year due to reduced fuel consumption) Source: Flensburger Schiffbau Gesellschaft

Climate simulations with CLM ( ~50km) for Polar Lows Zahn, M., and H. von Storch, 2008: A longterm climatology of North Atlantic Polar Lows. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L22702, doi: /2008GL For scenarios, see poster: Future projections of North Atlantic polar low frequency

North Atlantic Polar Lows

Flow and deposition of substances Many anthropogenic substances released into the environment are transported over long distances and are deposited all over Europe and the rest of the world. Long term and spatially representative measurements unavailable. Alternative: use of circulation and precipitation from long-term weather reconstruction to model fate of substances. Lead deposition in Europe von Storch, H., M. Costa-Cabral, C. Hagner, F. Feser, J. Pacyna, E. Pacyna, and S.Kolb, 2003: Four decades of gasoline lead emissions and control policies in Europe: A retrospective assessment, The Science of the Total Environment (STOTEN) 311,

Emissions Lead in Europe, 1975 Depositions

model estimate

Weisse, R., H. von Storch, U. Callies, A. Chrastansky, F. Feser, I. Grabemann, H. Günther, A. Plüss, T. Stoye, J. Tellkamp, J. Winterfeldt and K. Woth, 2009: Regional meteo-marine reanalyses and climate change projections: Results for Northern Europe and potentials for coastal and offshore applications. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 90: (open access)