Agricultural Economics Macroeconomic Situation and Outlook Fall 2003 Craig Infanger Larry Jones.

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Presentation transcript:

Agricultural Economics Macroeconomic Situation and Outlook Fall 2003 Craig Infanger Larry Jones

Agricultural Economics UK Center for Business and Economics Research “The U.S. economy appears to have come out of the 2001 recession in solid but not great shape … the economy will continue to grow in 2003 … but the current pace of recovery is fragile.” Kentucky Annual Economic Report 2003

Agricultural Economics

U.S. Economic Growth Annual Change in Gross Domestic Product forecast Percent

Agricultural Economics U.S. Economic Growth Quarterly Change in Gross Domestic Product Percent

Agricultural Economics Contributions to Economic Growth, 2002 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Percent, annual

Agricultural Economics Consumer Price Index All Items and Energy Source: BLS

Agricultural Economics Interest Rate Trends, Source: Federal Reserve Bank Percent

Agricultural Economics Unemployment Rates U.S. and Kentucky Monthly Rates Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor % Civilian Labor Force

Agricultural Economics Jobs are a big issue in the coming election.

Agricultural Economics Number of Jobs in U.S. Manufacturing and Service Sectors, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; 2003 = July estimate millions Lowest level since before WWII

Agricultural Economics Monthly Net Change is U.S. Employment, (thousands of nonfarm jobs) Recession ends Source: Dept of Labor

Agricultural Economics Monthly Net Change is U.S. Employment, (thousands of nonfarm jobs) Source: Dept of Labor ,000 jobs per month

Agricultural Economics U.S. International Trade Balance Source: Dept of Commerce Billion$

Agricultural Economics U.S. Agricultural Trade Balance Billion$, FY *projected Source: USDA, ERS

Agricultural Economics Trade Weighted Dollar Index Trade Weighted Exchange Index v. 26 Trading Partners Source: Federal Reserve Bank 10% decline since early = 100

Agricultural Economics Macroeconomic Consequences for the Kentucky Economy UK CBER forecast for “steady recovery” for KY economy with 3.2% growth in ‘03 and 3.9% in ‘04 Unemployment maxing out at 6.1% in 2003 with decline to 5.5% in 2004 Recession + tax cuts = state revenues on a permanently lower growth path (structural deficit) State budget deficit of $275 million + Medicaid deficit of $175 = $475 million (5% of state budget)

Agricultural Economics Actual and Projected Federal Budget Surplus and Deficits, Source: OMB and CBO, 2003 Billions $

Agricultural Economics Kentucky Net Farm Income

Agricultural Economics USDA Farm Program Payments

Agricultural Economics Kentucky Farm Balance Sheet

Agricultural Economics Macroeconomic Outlook Summary Modest economic growth for U.S. and KY Historically low interest rates and inflation Jobless recovery with relatively high unemployment for a growing economy Trade deficit = serious drag on economic growth Enormous Federal budget deficit and serious State structural budget deficit Higher net farm income + USDA payments + Rising land values = Strong farm balance sheet Growth in ag exports but disappearing trade surplus