Nature Doesn’t Yield Her Secrets Easily Mark Battle (Bowdoin College) Michael Bender (Princeton) Ralph Keeling (Scripps Institute of Oceanography) Pieter.

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Presentation transcript:

Nature Doesn’t Yield Her Secrets Easily Mark Battle (Bowdoin College) Michael Bender (Princeton) Ralph Keeling (Scripps Institute of Oceanography) Pieter Tans (NOAA/CMDL) Jesse Bastide, Carrie Simonds, Blake Sturtevant, Becca Perry EdFest Rochester 8/7/2004 Funding from: NSF, EPA, NOAA GCRP, BP-Amoco, Bowdoin College

Organizing Principle: 1 topic superficially

Organizing Principle: 1 topic superficially Many topics with vanishing content

: PhD in HEP experiment : Post Doc. at URI-GSO (Oceanography) : Research Scientist at Princeton (Geosciences) ? : Asst. Prof. Bowdoin College (Physics) My tortuous path

Where does anthropogenic CO 2 end up?

Measurements of O 2 and CO 2  O2 = Land biota + Industry  CO2 = Land biota + Industry + Ocean

Measurements of O 2 and CO 2 real time collections

The Princeton cooperative flask sampling network

Ships of opportunity

Automated sample collection systems

O 2 /N 2 changes are small  O 2 /N 2 per meg  (O 2 /N 2sa – O 2 /N 2st )/(O 2 /N 2st ) x per meg = % 1 GtC from FF  3.2 per meg  O2/N2

1991 – 1997 Land sink = 1.4 ± 0.8 GtC/yr Ocean sink = 2.0 ± 0.6 GtC/yr Battle et al. Science 2000 ( )

Measurements of O 2 and CO 2 real time collections average land/ocean carbon partition 1991  present

Measurements of O 2 and CO 2  O2 = Land biota + Industry  CO2 = Land biota + Industry + Ocean

Measurements of O 2 and CO 2  O2 = Land biota + Industry  CO2 = Land biota + Industry + Ocean

Measurements of O 2 and CO 2  O2 = Land biota + Industry  CO2 = Land biota + Industry + Ocean

Determining the O 2 :CO 2 stoichiometry for the land biota

Measurements of O 2 and CO 2 real time collections air archives average land/ocean carbon partition 1991  present measure land O 2 :CO 2 stoichiometry

Firn (snowpack) as an air archive Ice Surface Firn ~120m

Influences of firn air composition Overlying atmosphere (Fick’s laws)

Influences of firn air composition Overlying atmosphere (Fick’s laws) Selective exclusion at bubble close-off (Knudsen regime) Gravitational settling (barometric equation) Thermal fractionation (kinetic theory) Wind pumping/bulk flow (Bernard convection?)

The forward problem… 1.Posit an atmospheric history 2.Use the history to drive the model forward in time 3.Compare model predictions with observations

The inverse problem… 1.Start with a set of observations 2.What atmospheric history led to those data?

The mechanistic inverse problem… 1.Start with a set of observations 2.What atmospheric history led to those data? Trial history  (land sink) +  (fossil source)+  (exclusion flux) Battle et al., Nature 1996 ( ) Land sink: 0.4 ± 0.4 GtC/yr for

The phenomenological inverse problem… 1.Start with a set of observations 2.What atmospheric history led to those data? Trial history  f  t  Montzka et al., Geophys. Res. Lett., In press

Measurements of O 2 and CO 2 real time collections air archives average land/ocean carbon partition 1991  present average land/ocean carbon partition 1977  1985 histories of other species ~1900  present measure land O 2 :CO 2 stoichiometry

Full circle… Bowdoin teaching: Physics of the Environment (Physics 81): Spring '02, ‘05 Introductory Physics I (Physics 103): Fall, '02 Introductory Physics II (Physics 104): Spring '01, Fall '01 E & M Laboratory (Physics 223L): Fall ‘04 Statistical Mechanics (Physics 229): Spring '00, '01, '02, '03, ‘05 Acoustics (Physics 250): Fall '00 Physical Oceanography (Physics 255): Fall '00, '02 Atmospheric Physics (Physics 256): Fall '01, Fall ‘04 Physics of Particles and Nuclei (Physics 280): Spring '03