IVY TECH IN 2025: Reaching the Goal Robert E. Hoke Independent Consultant IVY TECH IN 2025: Reaching the Goal Robert E. Hoke Independent Consultant Page 1

Outline of Presentation  Recap of the Big Goal  Historical Trends on Associate Degree Awarded  Projecting Future Degrees Awarded Based on Past Trends  Internal and External Factors that Will Affect Growth  Next Steps  Questions from the Floor Page 2

Recap of Big Goal  60% of Adults will have earned a degree by  In 2008, 33.4% of Indiana adults ages held at least a two-year degree.  If current trends continue, by 2025 an estimated 44.4% of the adult population in Indiana will hold an associate degree or higher.  There will be a gap of 15.6% between projected number of adults with degrees and the goal of 60% of the adult population.  Gap = approximately 514,000 adults in Indiana in 2025 without a degree. (MHEC) Page 3

Page 4 “By increasing production by 6,454 associate and bachelor’s degrees each year between now and 2025 – an annual increase of 6.3% – Indiana will reach the Big Goal.” Lumina Foundation “A Stronger Nation Through Higher Education”

How many additional Ivy Tech associate degrees will be needed to reach the state goal?  75% of those 6,454 annual additional degrees need to be associate degrees. (State of Indiana)  Assumption that Ivy Tech will award all of those 4,840 additional associate degrees.  62,926 additional degrees beyond current projections between now and Page 5

HISTORICAL TRENDS RELATED TO IVY TECH ASSOCIATE DEGREES Page 6

Number of Ivy Tech Associate Degrees Grew by 322% between 1991/92 and 2010/11 Page 7 1,887 Associate Degrees (91-92) 3,150 Associate Degrees (01-02) 7,969 Associate Degrees (10-11)

Associate Degrees Awarded by Ivy Tech by Year Page 8

Number of Associate Degrees Award by Year Page 9

Year to Year Percentage Growth Rate in Associate Degrees Page 10

Which Historical Trend is Best Predictor of Future Degrees? Annual Growth Rate 91/92 to 10/11: 6.46% (19 years) 96/97 to 10/11: 7.50% (15 years) 01/02 to 10/11: 10.59% (10 years) 06/07 to 10/11: 10.34% (5 years) 09/10 to 10/11: 20.29% (1 year) Page 11

Projection of Growth Based on Historical Trends Page 12

Projection of Growth Based on Annual Growth Since Page % Annual Growth Rate

Projection of Growth Based on Annual Growth Since Page % Annual Growth Rate

Projection of Growth Based on Annual Growth Since Page % Annual Growth Rate

Projection of Growth Based on Annual Growth Since Page % Annual Growth Rate

Projection of Growth Based on Annual Growth Since Page 17

Projection of Growth Based on Historical Trends Page 18

Calculating the Gap Annual Growth Rate Number of Associate Degrees Produced Degrees Produced with Annual State Growth of 3.90 % Projected Need for Additional Degrees Number of Degrees Needed to Meet Goal Surplus or GAP %212,452178,72162,926241,647-29, %228,471178,72162,926241,647-13, %285,685178,72162,926241,64744, %280,457178,72162,926241,64738, %608,488178,72162,926241,647366,841 Page 19

Implications for Goal Setting and Strategies  Historic year-to-year growth has not been straight-line linear, e.g. two years of high growth followed by modest growth. Benchmarking intermediate goals will be important to deal with potential fluctuation in growth rates.  Circumstances and strategies that lead to tremendous recent growth may not be suitable for replication on an annual basis. The plan to reach the goal needs to include short-term strategies that provide almost immediate gains in degree attainment along with long-term strategies that will provide lasting momentum.  External forces such as migration, changes in social security and other retirement plans, and government policies may cause changes in the number of degrees required to reach 60% of the population. Ivy Tech needs to consider in advance how to address external pressure to increase internal targets and benchmarks. Page 20

EXTERNAL FACTORS TO CONSIDER Page 21 Photo Credit: United Way of Central Indiana and Trinity Wesleyan Child Care Ministry

Adult Population With Some College (Lumina) Page 22

Projection of High School Graduates by Race/Ethnicity Page 23 Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity, 1992 to 2022.

Percentage of Population with at least 2-Year Degree (2008) Page 24 Source: Midwestern Higher Education Compact

Increased Diversity in the Last Decade in Children Page 25 Change in Child Population Under 18 by Race and Ethnicity,

Greater Diversity Among Children than Adults Page 26 Share of Indiana Population by Age Group, Race, and Ethnicity 2010

What’s Next?  What projected growth rate is the “right fit” for Ivy Tech?  What additional information is needed in order to make a logical projection for future growth?  What are the internal and external constraints that will affect Ivy Tech’s ability to grow at that rate?  Unpack the needed additional degrees by region and campus. What are the local conditions that need to be taken into account when developing goals for each region?  What strategies should be engaged?  What impact will other education institutions who offer associate degrees have on Ivy Tech’s ability to reach its goal?  Is Ivy Tech producing enough degrees in “high-growth” fields to meet the state’s current and future demands? Page 27

Potential Strategies and Benchmarks Categories  Enrollment  How can Ivy Tech best increase enrollment that will lead to an increased number of degrees awarded?  Persistence  What are some key strategies to increasing the number of students who stay on course to completing their degree?  Certificate Attainment  How can Ivy Tech develop a strategy around certificate attainment that leads to more degrees awarded? Page 28

QUESTIONS Page 29

Page 30 Contact Information: Robert E. Hoke Independent Consultant