15-day forecast skill during October-November-December Todd Mitchell Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean University of Washington.

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Presentation transcript:

15-day forecast skill during October-November-December Todd Mitchell Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean University of Washington

Examine 15-day daily NOAA “reforecasts” Every day run the forecast model out 15 days. Do this 15 times and take the mean. Do this every day since How useful are the 15-day October, November, December reforecasts for the Pacific Northwest?

Examine skill in shorter forecasts. Skill in forecast for average of days Skill in precipitable water forecasts Skill in warm, neutral, and cold ENSO Skill for phases of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation (Madden and Julian oscillation)

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