1 “Projects run on requirements, resources and risks” - Augmenting the ‘iron triangle’ to keep an eye on critical success factors during a project Steve Armstrong (Open University)

2 Subjects  Models and modelling  Critical success factors  Stakeholders

3 Starting point  Taking a systems view in order to explore the relationships between the factors and actors that have an influence on the course of action as the project plan is realized  But, watch out for the ‘shifting sands’ of project working  reframing a requirement can make it forcibly relevant to a new set of stakeholders  a significant event can cause stakeholders to switch roles and this is likely to change their requirements

4 Models  A model is a way of expressing a particular view of an identifiable system of some kind  So, models are  a way of understanding the problems involved  an aid to communication among those involved, especially when a deliverable is being investigated  a component of the methods used in a given activity, such as the financial modelling done to test the feasibility of a proposal

5 Interactions between stakeholders  Conflict as a source of problems  when a stakeholder perceives that his or her interests are being opposed or negatively affected by another  So many expectations  “What do you expect to achieve …”  profound influence on project evaluation

6 The sources of conflict have implications for the management of risk  Incompatible goals  Different values and beliefs  Task interdependence  Scarce resources  Ambiguous rules  Communication problems

7 Some influences on satisfaction project outcomes satisfaction cultural and social values personal values expectations

8 Two distinct perspectives on project success  Success criteria  related to the What? question, which include both qualitative and quantitative measures  Critical success factors (CSFs)  related to the How? question, which are to be found in the project and its environment

9 Some examples of success criteria  The facility is produced to specification within budget and on time  The project achieves its business purpose and meets its defined objectives and quality thresholds so as to be profitable for the owner  The project team is happy during the project and with its outcome  Users are happy during the project and with its outcome  The project is profitable for the contractors  The project satisfies the needs of stakeholders

10 The ‘top five’ CSFs  Support from senior management  Clear, realistic objectives  Strong/detailed plan kept up to date  Good communication/feedback  User/client involvement ‘top five’ (out of 27) after a review of 63 publications

11 The ‘bottom five’ CSFs  Correct choice/past experience of project management methods/tools  Environmental influences  (learning from) past experiences  Project size/level of complexity/number of people involved/duration  (appreciating) different viewpoints ‘bottom five’ (out of 27) after a review of 63 publications

12 Criticisms of the CSF approach  the inter-relationships between CSFs are at least as important as the individual ones  the CSF approach ignores the potential for a factor to have varying levels of importance (and relevance) at different times during the project

13 The Formal Systems Model (FSM)  is a framing device to deliver the benefits of using CSFs  whilst, at the same time, taking into account their inter-relationships and dynamics our interpretation has changed  the sense of uniqueness with regard to projects indicates that each CSF will affect projects in different ways  for example, a business case might contain a prioritised list of critical success factors to reflect the context in which the proposed project will take place

14 The Formal Systems Model (FSM)

15 Classifying CSFs using project attributes within the FSM  Goals and objectives  Clear realistic objectives (2)  Strong Business case/ sound basis for project (9)  Performance monitoring  Effective monitoring/control (16)  Planned close down/review/acceptance of possible failure (20)

16 Classifying CSFs using project attributes within the FSM (contd.)  Decision makers  Support from senior management (1)  Strong/detailed plan kept up to date (3)  Competent project manager (8)  Good leadership (11)  Realistic schedule (13)  Correct choice/past experience of project management methods/tools (23)

17 Classifying CSFs using project attributes within the FSM (contd.)  Transformations  Skilled/suitable qualified/ sufficient staff/team (6)  Communication  Good communication/feedback (4)  Environment  Organisational adaptation/culture/structure (18)  Political stability (22)  Environmental influences (24)  (learning from) past experiences (25)

18 Classifying CSFs using project attributes within the FSM (contd.)  Boundaries  Project size/level of complexity/number of people involved/duration (26)  Resources  Sufficient/well allocated resources (10)  Proven/familiar technology (12)  Adequate budget (17)  Good performance by suppliers/contractors/consultants (19)  Training provision (21)

19 Classifying CSFs using project attributes within the FSM (contd.)  Continuity  Risks addressed/assessed/managed (14)  General  User/client/ involvement (5)  Effective change management (7)  Project sponsor/champion (15)  (appreciating) different viewpoints (27)

20 The project context  The sense of uniqueness with regard to projects indicates that each of the above factors will affect projects in different ways.  A business case should contain a prioritised list of critical success factors to reflect the context in which the proposed project will take place.  For each critical success factor, it may be possible to identify a qualitative or quantitative measure that can be monitored during the project.  Any variation beyond a given threshold for a particular critical success factors can be interpreted as placing the project at risk.

21 Using influence diagrams  Modelling the main structural features of an issue and the important relationships that exist among them  Each one is a snapshot of a situation in order to identify the factors and actors that have a direct influence on a central issue of interest  e.g. it is possible to identify obstacles to the implementation of a new policy or strategy  Influence diagrams are very rich in the information that they can capture  e.g. they can be used to gain an understanding of stakeholders’ attitudes

22 Some of the factors and actors concerned with a project’s success

23 Using multiple cause diagrams  A multiple cause diagram can be used to identify and tackle the causes of a complex problem in a systemic way  often derived from influence diagrams  They are used to explore why a given event happened or why a certain class of events tends to occur  The phrases used in a multiple cause diagram relate to a state  such as a ‘flat battery’,  or an event  such as ‘battery goes flat’

24 The normal starting point  What is the state or event to be explained?  The answer becomes the focal point of the diagram  e.g. a lack of support form senior management is detected  Then, you can work outwards and backwards through the chains of causal connections to identify the relevant sequences and/or loops

25 Alternatively  You might begin by assuming that a particular project had failed  Then, consider changes in state for the CSFs  lack of user involvement  lack of resources  unrealistic expectations  incomplete requirements  lack of planning  insufficient training

26 Investigating user dissatisfaction

27 Multiple cause diagrams are not intended to predict behaviour  But, they may be used to construct a list of factors to bear in mind when investigating comparable circumstances in the future  part of a ‘regular health check’  i.e. a component in the analysis of risk  In practice, some further annotation may be required when there is insufficient evidence to denote a causal connection  e.g. an arrow might be associated with other phrases like: ‘contributes to’, ‘is followed by’ or ‘enables’

28 Summary  An understanding of the issues relating to a project’s requirements, resources and risks is the basis for a successful implementation of a plan to meet the time, cost and quality criteria  Modelling is a way of thinking about things and ideas in the ‘real world’  “Modelling and testing are fundamental aspects of quality management.” (APM BoK 2006, p.62)  Modelling may have a role in the lessons learnt from a project  Would keeping a repository of such information promote a more reflective practitioner?