1 Forecasting

2 Forecasters May Miss Big Events The Great Recession

3 Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti (ADSA) Business Index, Fed at Philadelphia The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions index is designed to track real business conditions at high frequency. Its underlying economic indicators (weekly initial jobless claims; monthly payroll employment, industrial production, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales; and quarterly real GDP) blend high- and low-frequency information and stock and flow data. Both the ADS index and this web page are updated as data on the index's underlying components are released.

4 Last Two years

5 Since 2000

6 Since 1960

7 Survey of Professional Forecasters

8 Probability Distribution on Annual growth

9 You can stand taller on somebody else’s shoulders

10 Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Index

11 FRED at St. Louis Fed: GDP, 1947-

12 GDP (Log Scale)

13 Change in GDP

14 Last 5 Years GDP, $ Billions

15 Change in GDP, Last 5 Years

16 Change in Disposable Personal Income, Last 5 years

17 Change in Personal Consumption Expenditures Since 1929, $ Billions

18 Change in Personal Consumption Expenditures, last 5 years

19 Civilian Unemployment Rate

20 Unemployment Rate in California, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)

21 Forecasts Livingston Survey

22 GDP Growth

23 Interest rates

24 Forecasters

25 S&P 500

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31 Duration of Unemployment, FRED

32 Duration of Unemployment

33 California California Economic Indicators

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35 Employment Growth” Month to Month Changes

36 Home Building

37 Month to month changes in Employment

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