“College Major and Preferences: The Case of Religion” + “Education and Values: Family, Careers and Society” Miles Kimball Colter Mitchell Arland Thornton Linda Young-DeMarco University of Michigan All authors contributed substantially to this paper, and names are listed alphabetically to reflect the substantial contribution of each. Paper available at

Higher education is associated with attitudes towards  Individual achievement  Marriage and intergenerational relationships  Divorce, cohabitation, and childbearing  Careers, fulfillment, and community service  Religion

Focus of Research  Causal Relationships College Major Values

Focus of Research  Causal Relationships College Major Values

Focus of Research  Reciprocal Causal Relationships College Major Values

Theory  Three Streams of Thought: Science Developmentalism Postmodernism

Science  Alternative authority structure  Alternative view of life and purpose God not necessary for explaining life Humans related to animals Mind=Brain (neurological explanations of spiritual experience) Little room in Physics for an immortal soul separate from the body.

Developmentalism  Narrative of progress: Individual over family Materialism Equality and Freedom

Postmodernism  Rejection of absolute or universal standards  Epistemological doubt  Social and political power determines what counts as true and right.

College Major MajorSciencePostmodernismDevelopmentalism All Majors+++ Humanities++ Social Science ++ Natural Science ++

Two Fundamental Hypotheses  Hypotheses 1: College major will influence values concerning family, careers, and society  Hypothesis 2: Values will influence the choice of college major

College Major Major Family Career Society Humanities--+ Social Science--+ Natural Science-??

Monitoring the Future  High school seniors in the United States  The baseline interview takes place during senior year (Time 0)  Time 1 is one or two years after high school  Time 3 is five or six years after high school

How Important Is … (4pt scale)  Family Having a good marriage and family life Being able to give my children better opportunities than I've had Living close to parents and relatives  Career Being successful in my line of work Having lots of money Being able to find steady work  Society Working to correct social and economic inequalities Making a contribution to society Finding purpose and meaning in my life

College Major Categories  Natural Science  Social Science  Humanities  Other/Undecided  No College  “Trades” (clerical, vocational/technical, business, education, and engineering)

Controls  Year of initial survey ( )  Region  Gender  Parental education  Political preferences and beliefs  Religion

Analyses College Major Values

Figure 1 Measurement and Structural Effects Model of Personal Values

Equations  Substantive equations  Measurement equations

Table 3 Predicting Time 3 Attitude from Time 1 Attitude and College Major at Time 1 LISREL Models (Z – ratios in parentheses) N=4173

Analyses  Values College Major College major stability Choosing a new college major

Table 4 Predicting the Stability of Time1 College Majors Through Time3 for the Time1 Attitude (Z-Ratios in Parentheses) N=4173

Table 5 Multinomial Logistic Regressions Predicting the Time3 College Major from the Time1 Attitude for Individuals in College at Time1 Who Indicated a Change in College Major by Time3 (Trades is the Omitted Category) (Z-ratios in Parentheses) (N=888)

Summary and Conclusions  College major changes values  Values affect college major choice  Strong causal nexus between values and major life decisions

Table 3 Predicting Time 3 Religiosity from Time 1 Religiosity and College Major at Time 1 LISREL Models (Z – ratios in parentheses)

Table 4 Predicting the Stability of Time1 College Majors Through Time3 for the Time1 Religiosity (Z-Ratios in Parentheses)

Table 5 Multinomial Logistic Regressions Predicting the Time3 College Major from the Time1 Religiosity for Individuals in College at Time1 Who Indicated a Change in College Major by Time3 (Trades is the Omitted Category) (Z-ratios in Parentheses)

Multipliers: Can these effects explain social change?  Many of these ideas affect everyone, regardless of major (or not attending college)—estimates of differences in effects are a lower bound on the overall size of the effects.  These are the effects after diminishing returns Effects bigger in the past when the ideas were newer Effects bigger in other countries where newer  The total social effects are cumulative over time  Colleges train the cultural elites (e.g., news and entertainment elites).

Is this Economics as well as Sociology?  “Values” = Views about what people should do.  What people think they should do has a big effect on what they actually do. Thus, people’s views about what should be done are an important preference parameter. (Akerlof)  Religion clearly influences values in this sense and a great deal of evidence shows it affects choices. Thus it affects preferences.

3 Origin Questions What determines:  The available technology?  The structure of strategic interactions?  Preferences?

Where do preferences come from?  Genes  Culture From parents From others

Implications of Evolution for Social Theory  In steady state, it is as if each replicating entity has a utility function it is maximizing Organisms Humans Animals Plants Design Plans Genes Ideas (Dawkin’s “Memes”) Groups Quantitatively, group selection requires equilibrium within the group.  Out of steady state, track population dynamics.

Explaining Trends in Religiosity  More religious people have more children  Thus, in terms of transmission of religiosity from parents to children, there is selection pressure toward greater religiosity.  The only way religiosity will not trend upwards is if there is some other influence pulling religiosity down. Simple regression to the mean? Influence of schooling? Influence of the media?