QUALITIES OF DEMOCRACY IN LATIN AMERICA Economic Policies and Governmental Performance

OPTIONAL PAPER 10+- pages in length Due in class on Wednesday, May 25 Topic: Anything related to course (but get clearance from TA) Approach: An analytical “think piece,” not an exhaustive research paper Define a problem, frame a question, explain evidence and sources, and answer the question you pose at the outset

READING Smith, Democracy, ch. 8 Modern Latin America, chs. 9, 11, 12

OUTLINE 1. Seeking Keys to Development 2. Declining State Capacity 3. Politics of Economic Growth The Arguments The Findings 4. Democracy and Social Welfare: Infant Mortality and School Attendance 5. Poverty and Inequality

IN SEARCH OF SOLUTIONS The Liberal Era (1880s-1920s) Import-Substitution Industrialization (1930s- 1970s) The Socialist Alternative (1950s-1980s) Neoliberalism and the Washington Consensus (1980s-present)

HYPOTHESES: THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF DEVELOPMENT H 1 : The greater the prevalence of democratic rule, the greater the provision of material benefits. H 2 : The greater the prevalence of undemocratic (authoritarian) rule, the greater the provision of material benefits. H 3 : The prevalence of democratic or undemocratic rule bears no systematic relationship to the relative provision of material benefits.

Public Spending as Share of GDP: ABC + Mexico

Patterns of GDP Growth,

Table 8-2. Electoral Regimes and GDP Growth, 1960s-2000 | _____________Electoral Regime__________ GDP | Autocracy Semi-Democracy Democracy Growth (%) (%) (%) Low | | Med-Low | Med-High | High | | N | | 734

Table 8-4. Electoral Regimes and Infant Mortality, 1960s-1990s Infant | _____________Electoral Regime______________ Mortality | Autocracy Semi-DemocracyDemocracy (%) (%) (%) High | | Medium-High | Medium-Low | Low | | Total | | N

Table 8-7. Electoral Regimes and Primary School Enrollment, 1980s-1990s Primary | _____________Electoral Regime______________ School | Autocracy Semi-DemocracyDemocracy Enrollment (%) (%) (%) Low | | Medium-Low | Medium-High | High | | Total | | N Note: Columns may not add up to 100 because of rounding.

FOLLOW-UP STUDY Universe=Middle income countries—55 in lower-middle, 41 in upper-middle, N=96 Time frame= Units of analysis=country-years Dependent variables= Annual GDP growth rate (%) Infant Mortality (per 1,000) Primary School Enrollment (%)

REGIONAL DETERMINANTS __Growth__ __Mortality__ __Schooling__ (1,091) (280) (370) East Asia (0, 1) Eastern Europe (0, 1) * * Central Asia (0, 1) * * Middle East (0, 1) Sub-Saharan Africa (0, 1) * * South Asia (0, 0) LatinAmerica & Caribbean (0, 1) Constant: * * * R *Significant at.05 level or better.

REGION AND DEMOCRACY __ __Growth__ __ Mortality__ __ Schooling__ (1,032) (266) (346) Latin American & Caribbean Democracy (0, 1) * * Other Democracy (0, 1) * * Nondemocracy (0, 0) Constant: * * * R *Significant at.01 level or better.

DEMOCRACY WITHIN LATIN AMERICA __Growth__ __Mortality__ __Schooling_ (240) (48) (80) Liberal (0, 1) Illiberal (0, 1) Semi (0, 1) Nondemocracy (0, 0) Constant: * * R *Significant at.05 level or better.

Patterns of Inequality, : ABC + Mexico

UPDATE: GROWTH RATES

UPDATE: POVERTY LEVELS N __%__ __(millions)__

UPDATE: INEQUALITY = rising –increasing lower-higher skilled gap –uneven effects of international trade –absence of public policies = declining (slightly) –reduced lower-higher skilled gap (due to education) –government programs (including remittances) – unclear impact of global crash –still high by world standards

ANTI-POVERTY PROGRAMS (CCTs) Goals: –Empowerment of poor, improvement of life chances –Increase of human capital –Reduction of poverty and inequality Features: –“conditional cash transfers” –social contract between state and beneficiaries –typical conditions: children’s attendance at school, of health care, nutrition –payments usually made to women (mothers), not men (traditional heads of family) –requirements for oversight (entry, exit, funding)

CASES: MEXICO AND BRAZIL Mexico: “Oportunidades” (1997- ) –5 million households –20 % of household consumption –payment to mothers –major impact on school attendance –excellent data collection –0.5% of GDP Brazil: “Bolsa Família” (2003- ) –11 million households –$14 USD per child up to 3 children (+ “basic benefit” ≈ $37) –payment through debit card –distribution > human capital formation –20% decline in inequality –0.5% GDP Elsewhere: Argentina, Colombia, Chile, Ecuador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Paraguay, Peru…

Perceptions of Poverty in Latin America, Europe and the United States Percentages (%) who believe that: The poor are poor because: “Society is Unjust” “They are Lazy” “The poor have very little chance to escape from poverty” LAC - Average Mexico Argentina Brazil Chile Peru Venezuela Uruguay Dom. Republic Colombia n.a. n.a Continental Europe United States