International symposium on Employment and skills forecasting - Warwick – 29/09/2011 Rationale and uses: lessons from French PMQ (Prospective des métiers et des qualifications) projects Tristan Klein

2 International symposium on Employment and skills forecasting - Warwick – 29/09/2011 Origins of the projects

3 International symposium on Employment and skills forecasting - Warwick – 29/09/2011 A development of employment and training forecasting for 30 years Works at national level from ministry of Education ( ) and Commissioner of Plan – CAS (since mid 1990’s) Observatories of occupations and skills created by professional sectors (cross sector collective agreement 2003, 2009) Regional studies on occupations and skills (regional observatories) and anticipation of economic change works

4 International symposium on Employment and skills forecasting - Warwick – 29/09/2011 History of PMQ projects  1984 : first exercise of employment and skills forecasting in the ministry of education (made by BIPE)  1991 : Freyssinet’s report suggested studies by the prime minister office with the partnership of social partners at sector level  1997, 2000, 2003 : three waves of forecasting in the Commissioner of Plan (CGP) requested by the Prime minister  2002 : Avenir des Métiers a report at the 2010 term made by CGP and Dares (PMQ II)  : Les métiers en 2015, report published by CAS and DARES (PMQ III), in coordination with the project of ministry of education  : new exercise Les métiers en 2020 at the request of the Prime minister (PMQ IV) based on a road map written by the secretary of state for the prospective

5 International symposium on Employment and skills forecasting - Warwick – 29/09/2011 Several stakes due to labour market failures Optimizing the supply of training and increase the capacity of anticipation, analysis and evaluation of the vocational training system Promote better information for pupils, students and applicants for vocational training in a logic of Guidance throughout life Streamline the labor market and limit the pressure on recruitment Identify sectors and occupations, dormant, emerging or in tension Anticipate economic changes, both regional and sectoral

6 International symposium on Employment and skills forecasting - Warwick – 29/09/2011 The same goals since the beginning To Enrich the strategic thinking of the State, social partners, economic operators (including occupational sectors) and public debate on vocational training, labor market fluidity... To Enjoy the regional exercises, including regional development plans of professional training (PRDFP) and the definition of training maps To Respond to questions from users of the orientation: parents, pupils, students in the educational sphere, but also job seekers and employees

7 International symposium on Employment and skills forecasting - Warwick – 29/09/2011 The current project (PMQ IV)

8 International symposium on Employment and skills forecasting - Warwick – 29/09/2011 Macroeconomic scenario diagnostic métier et rapport Labour force forecasts INSEE CAS with Erasme - Nemesis CAS with COR General scheme of joint projections Occupations diagnosis and report CAS and DARES CAS DARES Sector scenario Occupations and skills forecasts Confrontation with the occupational observatories industries Departures at retirement forecasts Effects of the 2010 reform on Retirement forecasts INSEE Youth professional integration forecasts CAS School leavers forecasts CAS with DEPP and DGESIP

9 International symposium on Employment and skills forecasting - Warwick – 29/09/2011 Occupations and skills forecasts The FAP (‘familles professionnelles’) classification –A French classification, combination of statistical (PCS) and public employment service (ROME) classifications Forecasting in the 87 FAP level A specific approach for non market sector (health, education, civil servant…) A discussion with industries based on forecasts by industries observatories A mid-term horizon (8-10 years) : 2020

10 International symposium on Employment and skills forecasting - Warwick – 29/09/2011 Scenarios building CAS with Erasme team CAS “Sustainable growth” Scenario Baseline “Crisis” Scenario Macro Module Module Macro-sectoral Dares Module Sectors Occupations Results GDP, labour productivity and unemployment in 2020 Employment by sectors in 2020 Employment by occupations in 2020 Scope of the scenarios

11 International symposium on Employment and skills forecasting - Warwick – 29/09/2011 Organization of the project A 3 years project due to INSEE forecasts on labour force (planned in October 2010) A team of 4 people (almost full time) with 10 people in support (partial) Many actors involved : Technical Committee (CAS, Dares, INSEE, DG Trésor, DEPP, Pôle emploi, COR, OREF…) Strategic Committee (Social partners, regional authorities, education and employment general directorate CAS

12 International symposium on Employment and skills forecasting - Warwick – 29/09/2011 Problems and pitfalls

13 International symposium on Employment and skills forecasting - Warwick – 29/09/2011 Problems Data despite the big role of national institute of statistics –The French labour force survey changed and loses in quality to analyse occupations and occupational mobility The recent trend breaks, especially labour productivity The qualitative change in employment –The lack of studies on occupations and skills in France, especially by economists The political constraints and the lack of knowledge in economics in debates on labour market

14 International symposium on Employment and skills forecasting - Warwick – 29/09/2011 Pitfalls The economic situation during the building of forecasts –For PMQ III, forecasts were made in 2000, the highest peak for job creations within all the twentieth century in France  Hypotheses were very optimistic and the report was critized –For the current, the Crisis… Matching employment (i.e. labour demand) and school to work transitions (i.e. labour supply) –In our approach, we confront the results of two forecasts made in parallel. 50% of youths who have access to employment in their first 3 years are in an occupation different than their training specialization

15 International symposium on Employment and skills forecasting - Warwick – 29/09/2011 Uses and lessons

16 International symposium on Employment and skills forecasting - Warwick – 29/09/2011 A plurality of applications Results and analysis influences regional and sector forecasting exercises The common diagnosis for social partners and public administrations that are in charge of employment policies A tool for decision makers in education institutions A tool for orientation public service We play an important role in communication about the results and analysis

17 International symposium on Employment and skills forecasting - Warwick – 29/09/2011 Lessons Qualitative analysis and key messages are as important as quantitative results A modeling that insist on potential job creations and replacement of departures at retirement A report which provided an update on developments in occupations and skills A report with results, analysis and some discussions of employment and training public policies