Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no L. Tarrason, J. E. Jonson, M. Gauss, S. Valiyaveetil, P. Wind, I. Isaksen EMEP/MSC-W Evaluation of the global EMEP model and comparisons with the OsloCTM2 model ACCENT Workshop, IIASA, Laxenburg, December 2007

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no EMEP at regional scale Horizontal resolution:Regional 50 x 50 km2 (170 x 133 cells, over Europe) Vertical resolution: 20 σ-layers (up to 100 hPa), 10 layers in PBL Off-line meteorology:3-h meteorological input from HIRLAM PS Boundary conditions:Flexible choice (modelled or climatological for O3) Currently: climatological BCs + Mace-Head ozone assimilation Emissions:EMEP estimates Vertical distribution by sector GENEMIS time factors Default VOC speciation (Middleton et al) Land use and land classes: SEI Chemical transport model development and evaluation for 25 years Trademark : support to the design of policy control options

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no Schematic structure of EMEP UNIFIED Flexible choice of grid projection, domain and resolution! Boundary, lateral and initial conditions Advection Dry and Wet Deposition Emissions UNI - ACID EMEP acidification 10 species + PPM UNI - AERO EMEP aerosol model 14 species, 4 size modes UNI - OZONE EMEP photochemistry 69 species, 170 reactions Aerosol dynamics Multimono Meteorological conditions PPM mass: 2 species SOA module

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no EMEP at national and local scale EMEP4SE EMEP4UK EMEP4HR National projects in UK, Croatia and Sweden EMEP in local scale: Allow national experts to do their own assessments of the origin of local air pollution with consistent regional boundary conditions from EMEP Unified Flexibility = Robustness

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no Extension of model domain to hemispheric scale, first step towards global model Polar stereographic, 100x100 km 2 resolution performance similar to the regional scale EMEP model slightly lower correlation with primary species due to coarser resolution (100x100 km 2 ) improved performance for ozone in Mediterranean areas and for SIA and wet deposition – due to use of ECMWF met. fields general underestimation of free tropospheric ozone levels, need for introduction of convective exchange and improved stratospheric boundary condition

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no Ozone daily mean, GAW stations, hemispheric model RyoriTsukuba MinamitorishimaYonagunijima

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no Global scale model, MSC-W Fine resolution grid: Latitude Longitude, 1º x 1º resolution Meteorological data derived from ECMWF IFS T319 (1 year: 2001) Same model as regional EMEP model, but different grid projection and input data Emissions from AEROCOM, ACCES, EDGAR/Retro, Land use MM5

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no No model is better than its input data: Global NOx (kg m -2 ) emissions

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no July NO 2 column (10 15 molec/cm 2 ) from GOME (top) and the EMEP global model (bottom).

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no Ozone EMEP stations

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no Similar problems as with the hemispheric model General underestimation of free tropospheric ozone levels need to implement convective exchange need to improve stratospheric boundary condition (increase the resolution in tropopause region)

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no Local/regional pollution in lower troposphere in summer?

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

EMEP as service model  Open access to model code and routine model results  Improved internet sites  Seminars for the EMEP model  Visit the new data sites at  Enhanced flexibility of the model by allowing  the use of different nesting techniques  to run with different meteorology  Enhanced evaluation of the model, including  satellite data, in-situ data from EANET, LIDAR data  NRT Data, contribution to GMES Fast Track Services*  Use of data assimilation techniques (*not funded by EMEP)

OsloCTM2 Meteorology: ECMWF IFS data Vertical res.: 40 layers, surface – 10 hPa (60 layers, surface – 0.1 hPa) Horizontal res.: T42, 1ºx1 º Advection: S.O.M. scheme Chemistry: tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry (incl. het. chem. and on-line J-values) Surface emissions: Retro/POET BL mixing, convective transp., lightning/aircraft emissions, dry/wet deposition, … Transport surface 2 hPa Bnd.Cond.: OSLO 2-D NCEP tropopause 20 hPa Tropospheric chemistry module: 51 components Stratospheric chemistry module: 64 components Chemistry

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no Modeled versus Observed Daily Maximum surface Ozone (ppbv) for selected European stations in Observations: black global EMEP: red OsloCTM2: blue

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no Syowa Station / Antarctica Ryori (Japan) Cape Point (S. Africa) Modeled versus Observed Daily Max surface Ozone (ppbv) for selected GAW stations in Observations: black global EMEP: red OsloCTM2: blue

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no Minamitorishima (Japan) Modeled versus Observed Daily mean CO (ppbv) at different GAW stations in Observations: black global EMEP: red OsloCTM2: blue Hohenpeissenberg (Germany)

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no Annual scatter plots for different sulfur compounds measured at European EMEP stations. Units: μg(S)m −3

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no Annual timeseries of daily SO 2 surface mixing ratio (ppbv) over selected European stations.

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no Summary and conclusions (1/2) Further evaluation of the performance of the hemispheric and global model is needed –evaluation of the effect of convection on free tropospheric ozone –need to co-operate with Asian experts on monitoring data, evaluation with regional Asian network, in particular EANET –explore possibilities of enhanced collaboration with the remote sensing communities There is a strong need to revise and validate emission data and land use information, especially over Asia, in co-operation with international experts (TFHTAP, bilateral links) Demonstrate usefulness of EMEP (and OsloCTM2) models as links between emissions and remote sensing.

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no Megacities: The CityZen project ( ) 16 partners from Europe, China, Africa (coord. met.no) Focus on four emission hot spots: - Eastern Mediterranean - BeNeLux / Ruhr area - Po Valley - Pearl River Delta Detect long-term trends from satellite observations and inverse modelling (U Bremen, CNRS). Study impact of megacity emissions on AQ and climate and vice versa. Future scenarios (IIASA). EMEP and OsloCTM2 involved together with other models dealing with local, regional and global scales. Scale-bridging.