Risk Kate, Maria, Patrick Environmental Politics January 14 th 2004

Dealing with Risk Why the Public and the Experts Disagree on Environmental Issues 1996

Howard Margolis Social Theory, particularly the underpinnings of individual choice and judgment, which shape aggregate social outcomes. Professor in the Irving B. Harris Graduate School of Public Policy Studies at the University of Chicago

Expert/Public Conflicts Expert are Worried, Public is not. Expert are Worried, Public is not. Experts are not worried, but Public is. Experts are not worried, but Public is. Why? Why?

Intuition Experts & Public operate on different thought patterns

Responding to Stimuli Lab narrow/artificial context of experiments & expected fatalities Detached Normal Learned behavior throughout lifetime Contextual Social Cultural backdrop on how we perceive the world Contextual

More on Intuition All vulnerable to illusion All vulnerable to illusion Contextual cues necessary for comprehension Contextual cues necessary for comprehension Missing a variable that might be important or might not be focused on patterns Missing a variable that might be important or might not be focused on patterns

Theories to explain Conflict Ideology Ideology Trust Trust Rival Rationalities Rival Rationalities

Ideology Entrepreneurial: rely on market forces, minimal regulation (efficiency, autonomy) Entrepreneurial: rely on market forces, minimal regulation (efficiency, autonomy) Egalitarian: favor consensus, even distribution of resources (fairness) Egalitarian: favor consensus, even distribution of resources (fairness) Hierarchical: elite acting for good of community Hierarchical: elite acting for good of community

Egalitarian Most Complex Most Complex Naturally believes Hierarchies Perverse Naturally believes Hierarchies Perverse Example: Nuclear Power controlled by elite Example: Nuclear Power controlled by elite Further Split along Left-wing/Right-wing lines Further Split along Left-wing/Right-wing lines Divides expert judgment Divides expert judgment Polarizes public Polarizes public Why Public Splits Why Public Splits

Trust Distrust causes disbelief Distrust causes disbelief Disbelief causes distrust Disbelief causes distrust Both are motivated by fear of higher order manipulation or honest mistake Both are motivated by fear of higher order manipulation or honest mistake

Rival Rationalities What the expert sees as risk is not the same as what the public sees What the expert sees as risk is not the same as what the public sees Rationalizes but doesn’t explain Rationalizes but doesn’t explain There may not be any right or wrong perceptions There may not be any right or wrong perceptions Public is most concerned with “dread” Public is most concerned with “dread”

Four Points to the Habits of Mind Until an intuition is challenged it does not occur to us that it might be wrong. Until an intuition is challenged it does not occur to us that it might be wrong. When it is challenged we are more likely to get angry than willing to change our mind. When it is challenged we are more likely to get angry than willing to change our mind. Logic alone is rarely effective. Logic alone is rarely effective. You are not conscious of what prompts an intuition, until it no longer makes sense to you. You are not conscious of what prompts an intuition, until it no longer makes sense to you.

Poker Chip Scenario 3 chips, blue/blue, red/red, & red/blue. Without looking take out one chip and lay it on the table.

The Risk Matrix Risk is a major factor in cognitive intuition Risk is a major factor in cognitive intuition Risks are seen in terms of opportunity Risks are seen in terms of opportunity Fungibility: balancing Risk and Opportunity to one’s advantage Fungibility: balancing Risk and Opportunity to one’s advantage Opportunity No Opportunity DangerFungibility Better safe than Sorry No Danger Waste not Want Not Indifference

Relationship between Probabilites Subjective vs. Objective Probability Threshold effect (example: car insurance)

What affects a person’s attention toward involved risks? Individual Experiences Individual Experiences Concerns Prompted by Others Concerns Prompted by Others Framing of the Situation Framing of the Situation Independent or Polarized Independent or Polarized

Characteristics affecting Intution Benefits Benefits Accidents Accidents Voluntarity Voluntarity Familiarity Familiarity Controllability Controllability Understanding Understanding

Sources of Intuition Direct Experience Direct Experience Social Experience Social Experience Unfamiliar Experience (logically weak while cognitively strong) Unfamiliar Experience (logically weak while cognitively strong)

Examples Closing of New York Schools Contaminates Colorado and Idaho Washington Genetic Engineering compared to Nuclear Waste

Criteria which Constitute Risk Expert opinion Facts Facts Testing Testing Empirical Data Empirical Data Statistical Frequency of Events Statistical Frequency of Events Public Opinion Intuition Fear Voluntarity

Overly Cautious and Pessimistic Policies Inaccuracy of Extrapolating effects of low doses over long time from high doses Inaccuracy of Extrapolating effects of low doses over long time from high doses Ignoring Possible benefit from low doses Ignoring Possible benefit from low doses Any risk (however small) outweighs any cost (however large) Any risk (however small) outweighs any cost (however large)

People are upset when human lives are given dollar values Every day people decide between life and money

Example: Pollution cleanup There seem to be unlimited resources There seem to be unlimited resources It seems proper to clean up as much as possible It seems proper to clean up as much as possible There is a finite amount of resources (money comes from ALL taxpayers) There is a finite amount of resources (money comes from ALL taxpayers) Most of the toxins can be eliminated cheaply All of the toxins can only be eliminated with a LOT of effort

The Government Squanders the taxpayers money Cost efficiency seems callous Cost efficiency seems callous More cleanup means less risk & more jobs More cleanup means less risk & more jobs Strong support for stringent standard that ultimately fail Strong support for stringent standard that ultimately fail No individual is present to represent ALL taxpayers No individual is present to represent ALL taxpayers

We did not enjoy this book. “This book drove me to foul language.” –Patrick