SADC Course in Statistics Climate variability and climate change Module B1, Session 7

To put your footer here go to View > Header and Footer 2 Learning Objectives Explain why climate issues are included in this statistics course Relate climate change and climate variability to risk assessment and productivity in agriculture Understand the data requirements for a climate change problem concerning planting dates Interpret a graph of planting dates to begin to assess the evidence for climate change Explain their role, if any, in the climate debate

To put your footer here go to View > Header and Footer 3 Contents 1.Session outline 2.The case for including climatic examples video, transcript and discussion 3.Climate variability and agriculture video, transcript and discussion 4.Class discussion reviewing the interviews 5.Group work DFID fact sheet on the importance of climate issues Zambia case study What role can you play 6.Review

To put your footer here go to View > Header and Footer 4 Activity 2 – why include climatic examples? Climate variability affects many sectors of the National Statistical system including health and agriculture Climatic “shocks” are a major issue in preventing families climbing out of poverty Climate change is a global issue which could hit Africa hard And studying variability is what statistics is all about!

To put your footer here go to View > Header and Footer 5 Activity 3: Climate and rainfed agriculture Africa depends on rainfed agriculture and will continue to do so It is a risky business and farmers are risk averse partly because they don’t know the risks But they could If the climatic data were analysed appropriately Then they could take advantage of the average and good years better than they are able to do now The video tells the story!

To put your footer here go to View > Header and Footer 6 Activity 4: Class discussion (10 min) What are the key points to take away from these interviews? What do these messages mean for development projects and studies? Do you agree with them? What can studies into climate, past and present, inform us on?

To put your footer here go to View > Header and Footer 7 Activity 5: Group work Divide into groups of 4 Within your group divide into pairs Each pair looks at one of the two remaining resources 1.International - DFID factsheet 2.Local - Zambia study on climate change Report on your study to the others in your group picking out 4 or 5 key points as part of your explanation Then in the group discuss your views on climate variability and change

To put your footer here go to View > Header and Footer 8 Responding to the risks of climate change Fact sheet by DFID DFID = UK Department for International Development Are different approaches to poverty eradication necessary? Reducing the vulnerability of the poor to current climate variability is the starting point for adaptation to climate change What are the priorities for Africa? see the DFID fact sheet

To put your footer here go to View > Header and Footer 9 Climate change in Southern Zambia Farmers are migrating North Claiming their farming problems are due to climate change A local NGO – CFU Conservation Farming Unit Agrees there are problems of climate variability But is not convinced that climate change Has affected these rainfall-related risks So they wanted a study of the rainfall data to check on the evidence for climate change and calculate the risks

To put your footer here go to View > Header and Footer 10 One result from the Zambia study The daily rainfall data were needed for this analysis

To put your footer here go to View > Header and Footer 11 Explain to your group From your case study Explain to the others in your group Partly by giving 4 or 5 key points Then have a general group discussion Do you agree with the inclusion of climatic examples in this course The DFID fact sheet says that climate variability and climate change is so important that new approaches are needed What do you think?

To put your footer here go to View > Header and Footer 12 What could climate issues mean for you? Is climate variability and climate change just for your government or for the West or for the Met Service Or does it affect everyone? If so and if variability is so important which is something statisticians study What should you do? What could you do “You” could be yourself, or your organisation

To put your footer here go to View > Header and Footer 13 The next session continues the climatic theme by looking at solar energy, particularly solar cooking