Mgt 240 Lecture MS Excel: Decision Support Systems September 16, 2004

Homeworks Homework Homework Homework 2 grades posted on course web site Homework 2 grades posted on course web site Why I asked you to do this Why I asked you to do this Homework 3 due tomorrow by 5pm Homework 3 due tomorrow by 5pm Andy Grau in L050 from 7-9pm tonight Andy Grau in L050 from 7-9pm tonight No homework due next week! No homework due next week! Homework 4 has been posted Homework 4 has been posted Due by 5pm, Friday 9/30 Due by 5pm, Friday 9/30

Assigned Readings Reading questions have been posted through 9/30 Reading questions have been posted through 9/30 Don’t forget to be doing the reading with the reading questions as a guide Don’t forget to be doing the reading with the reading questions as a guide Easy to put off in the press of other pressing responsibilities but you don’t want to be in the position of not absorbing any of the reading content until exam week Easy to put off in the press of other pressing responsibilities but you don’t want to be in the position of not absorbing any of the reading content until exam week Don’t save it all until exam week! It’s too much to take in! Don’t save it all until exam week! It’s too much to take in!

Decision Support Systems

What is a DSS? A DSS is a computer-based tool, controlled by the end user, used to support and improve decision making in semi-structured and unstructured problem situations. A DSS is a computer-based tool, controlled by the end user, used to support and improve decision making in semi-structured and unstructured problem situations. The DSS helps to impose structure on the decision-making process, and helps to bring together human judgment and computerized information. The DSS helps to impose structure on the decision-making process, and helps to bring together human judgment and computerized information. The DSS supports but does not replace the role of the end user in the decision process. The DSS supports but does not replace the role of the end user in the decision process.

Decision Making Stages

Stages of the Decision Making Process: Intelligence Problems or opportunities are identified or defined Problems or opportunities are identified or defined

Intelligence Phase DSS tools Excel Excel List capabilities: Sorting, filtering List capabilities: Sorting, filtering Pivot tables Pivot tables Charting Charting Gourmet1 example Gourmet1 example Gourmet1 example Gourmet1 example Gourmet2 example Gourmet2 example Gourmet2 example Gourmet2 example

Intelligence Phase DSS Tools Xcelsius Xcelsius Xcelsius Overview Overview Overview Executive Dashboard Executive Dashboard Executive Dashboard Executive Dashboard Identify, track, trend, and correct problems as managers evaluate the health of key areas of their organization Identify, track, trend, and correct problems as managers evaluate the health of key areas of their organization Identify operational efficiencies Identify operational efficiencies Proactively identify and apply corrective measures Proactively identify and apply corrective measures

Executive Dashboard Features Dashboard Screen: The dashboard page displays the overall health of key performance indicators. Each box represents a key performance indicator (KPI) and the health for corresponding periods. The default executive dashboard shown can be unique to the individual logged in, or shared by the entire organization.

Executive Dashboard Features View Screen: The View screen gives a snapshot picture of the key performance indicator (KPI). Charts display supporting data, while text details the criteria and justification for each KPI.

Executive Dashboard Design Design Screen: The design screen allows all elements of a key performance indicator (KPI) to be customized, including sub-indicators, charts, measures, criteria, and display properties.

Executive Dashboard Data Data Entry Screen: Performance Metric data is added for each key performance indicator (KPI). From a single screen, both actual values and projections for multiple indicators or time periods are entered.

Executive Dashboard Features Visually keep track of the performance of a company’s performance Visually keep track of the performance of a company’s performance The Dashboard is divided into panels The Dashboard is divided into panels Each panel may be made up of one or more gauges Each panel may be made up of one or more gauges Each gauge display can represent several rollup periods (or quarters of a year on the screen sample.) Each gauge display can represent several rollup periods (or quarters of a year on the screen sample.) Each gauge's indicator of success (color) is determined by a calculation that uses values from one or more data points or sub-gauges Each gauge's indicator of success (color) is determined by a calculation that uses values from one or more data points or sub-gauges Each data point may be assigned expectations or projections for maximum, minimum and target values for each period (month) for the entire year. Actual data point values are added when they become available Each data point may be assigned expectations or projections for maximum, minimum and target values for each period (month) for the entire year. Actual data point values are added when they become available The key at the bottom of the screen explains the colors and defines the rollup periods The key at the bottom of the screen explains the colors and defines the rollup periods When a performance indicator indicates under performance managers can very quickly drill down to the lower level element causing the under performance in the company's performance metrics When a performance indicator indicates under performance managers can very quickly drill down to the lower level element causing the under performance in the company's performance metrics

Stages of the Decision Making Process: Design Alternative solutions to the problem or opportunity are developed Alternative solutions to the problem or opportunity are developed

Design Phase DSS Tools Excel Excel What if analysis What if analysis Data tables Data tables Scenario manager Scenario manager Inn example Inn example Inn example Inn example Meeting, Brainstorming, and Decision Making Tools for groups Meeting, Brainstorming, and Decision Making Tools for groups Meeting, Brainstorming, and Decision Making Tools for groups Meeting, Brainstorming, and Decision Making Tools for groups

Stages of the Decision Making Process: Choice Selecting a course of action Selecting a course of action Excel Excel Solver Solver Sale example Sale example Sale example Sale example Expert systems Expert systems Intended to perform at the level of a human expert in a particular domain Intended to perform at the level of a human expert in a particular domain Decision Tree Analysis Decision Tree Analysis Decision ToolPak Decision ToolPak Decision ToolPak Decision ToolPak Add-in to Excel that facilitates construction of decision trees Add-in to Excel that facilitates construction of decision trees

Common Expert System Architecture User Knowledge Engineer User Interface Inference Engine Knowledge Base User Environment Development Environment Blackboard Documented Knowledge Expert Knowledge

Decision Tree Analysis Decision tree: Diagram that models choices and uncertainties and can be extended to include multiple, sequential decisions Decision Uncertainty

Decision Tree Analysis Inputs

Decision Tree Analysis Output

Guest Speaker Professor David Hartvigsen Professor David Hartvigsen

Assigned Reading Read chapter 6 (pp , ) in text Read chapter 6 (pp , ) in text Following are questions that you should be sure you can answer based on your understanding of the text: Following are questions that you should be sure you can answer based on your understanding of the text: What happens in each of the three phases of decision making as outlined by Simon? What happens in each of the three phases of decision making as outlined by Simon? What is the difference between a programmed and nonprogrammed decision? What is the difference between a programmed and nonprogrammed decision? What are the differences between the optimization, satisficing, and heuristics approach to choosing a decision solution? What are the differences between the optimization, satisficing, and heuristics approach to choosing a decision solution? What is the difference between an ad hoc and an institutional DSS? What is the difference between an ad hoc and an institutional DSS? What are the roles of the three different components of a DSS? What are the roles of the three different components of a DSS? What is a GDSS? What is a GDSS? What are some of the characteristics of GDSS that facilitate group decision making? What are some of the characteristics of GDSS that facilitate group decision making? What are some typical features of an executive support system? What are some typical features of an executive support system?