Tsunami Hazard Mitigation in Oregon Update on FY08-09 Accomplishments NTHMP Annual Meeting Pasadena, California January 27, 2010 Robert C. Witter Oregon.

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Presentation transcript:

Tsunami Hazard Mitigation in Oregon Update on FY08-09 Accomplishments NTHMP Annual Meeting Pasadena, California January 27, 2010 Robert C. Witter Oregon Department of Geology Althea Turner Oregon Emergency Management

Jack Ohman, 1991, The Oregonian New research by Chris Goldfinger places the probability of the next Cascadia earthquake at about 80% by 2059 January 27, 2010Oregon FY08-09 Accomplishments

State of Oregon FY08 NTHMP Grant Overview Total award: $253,910 FY08 Objectives 1.Initiate tsunami hazard assessment in Bandon, Oregon. 2.Promote tsunami risk mitigation and preparedness. 3.Support NWS TsunamiReady program. January 27, 2010Oregon FY08-09 Accomplishments

FY08 Objective 1: Bandon Tsunami Hazard Assessment Tasks Accomplished (1a) Cascadia earthquake source model completed. (1b) Tsunami deposits data compiled for Bandon area. (1c) Unstructured computational grid generated; Over 50 test simulations completed at Bradley Lake; Final inundation runs (30) planned for March (1d) Project management ongoing; Contributed to NTHMP partnership; Cochair, NTHMP Mapping & Modeling Subcommittee; Preparation of GIS database and final report, spring- summer January 27, 2010Oregon FY08-09 Accomplishments

FY08 Objective 1: Bandon Tsunami Hazard Assessment Issues –Scheduling conflicts among science team delayed development of earthquake source model. –Incorporating new lidar data into computational grid proved more time consuming than expected. Fixes –No cost one-year extension granted. January 27, 2010Oregon FY08-09 Accomplishments

FY08 Objective 2: Promote Tsunami Preparedness Tasks Accomplished (2a) Attended over 15 outreach and education events; Informed ODOT on earthquake and tsunami hazards. (2b) Posted interactive tsunami evacuation maps online; Helped Cannon Beach install evacuation map signs. (2c) Carried out first annual Tsunami Road Show. (2d) Provided technical assistance to Pacific Peril exercise. (2e) Produced 8-min Oregon tsunami preparedness video in partnership with USGS. January 27, 2010Oregon FY08-09 Accomplishments

FY08 Objective 2: Promote Tsunami Preparedness Issues –NTHMP Subcommittee co-chairs requested clarification on subtasks 2b – 2e. –All subtasks were not explicitly described in FY08 proposal, which led to confusion. –Subtasks 2b – 2e contribute to overall outcomes targeted by Objective 2 and support task 2a. –Worked with Oregon Tsunami Advisory Council to develop FY Oregon Tsunami Outreach Program. January 27, 2010Oregon FY08-09 Accomplishments

FY08 Objective 3: TsunamiReady Support Tasks Accomplished (3a) Design for Lincoln City blue-lens strobe warning signals complete; installation planned for Jan. 2010; Lincoln City renewed TsunamiReady designation. (3b) Procured 326 tsunami signs for Tillamook County, Lincoln City, Yachats, and Coos Bay (complete). Issues – No cost one-year extension granted to complete both projects. January 27, 2010Oregon FY08-09 Accomplishments

State of Oregon FY09 NTHMP Grant Overview Total award: $710,992 FY09 Objectives 1.Complete new generation of tsunami inundation maps for Oregon. 2.Empower public to prepare for tsunamis and build communities resilient to a broad spectrum of coastal hazards. 3.Build a sustainable, community-based outreach and education program that supports TsunamiReady. January 27, 2010Oregon FY08-09 Accomplishments

FY09 Objective 1: New Tsunami Inundation Maps Progress on Tasks (1.1.1) Bandon tsunami simulations underway; (1.1.2) Compilation of geologic evidence for prehistoric tsunamis in Bandon area complete; (1.1.3) Project management ongoing; GIS database and final report planned for spring-summer (1.2.1) Tsunami deposits data compiled for southern OR; (1.2.2) Field checking planned for summer 2010; (1.2.3) Supporting NGDC and CA with development of tsunami deposits database. January 27, 2010Oregon FY08-09 Accomplishments

FY09 Objective 1: New Tsunami Inundation Maps Progress Continued (1.3) Tsunami simulations for southern Oregon coast; (1.3.1) DEM development ongoing; generation of computational grid(s) planned for April-May 2010; (1.3.2) Selected southern Oregon tsunami simulations planned June-July 2010; (1.3.3) Preparation of GIS database and final report planned for fall January 27, 2010Oregon FY08-09 Accomplishments

FY09 Objective 1: New Tsunami Inundation Maps Issues –Grid resolution limits computational speed –Southern Oregon tsunami simulations delayed to summer 2010 January 27, 2010Oregon FY08-09 Accomplishments

FY09 Objective 2: Empower Public to Prepare Progress on Tasks (2.1) Produce tsunami evacuation maps for 7 coastal communities in southern Oregon (fall 2010). (2.2) Update online tsunami evacuation map (fall 2010). (2.3) Post new data to Tsunami Information Clearinghouse (fall 2010). Issues –Evacuation maps and update to online data contingent on completing southern Oregon inundation map by fall January 27, 2010Oregon FY08-09 Accomplishments

FY09 Objective 3: Sustainable, Grassroots Outreach Progress on Tasks (3.1) Identify and support Tsunami Outreach Coordinator (complete). (3.2) Help 3 communities meet TsunamiReady requirements (ongoing progress) (3.3) Contribute to Tsunami Information Clearinghouse (ongoing) (3.4) Identify 3 community organizers (February 2010) (3.5) Coordinate the 2010 Tsunami Road Show (April 2010) January 27, 2010Oregon FY08-09 Accomplishments

FY09 Objective 3: Sustainable, Grassroots Outreach Issues –Unexpected administrative workload delayed contract for Tsunami Outreach Coordinator. –Sensitivities related to selecting target communities. Fixes –Careful evaluation of target communities and upfront outreach campaign to disseminate Outreach Program information to coastal cities and counties. January 27, 2010Oregon FY08-09 Accomplishments

Oregon FY10 Project Plan TaskNTHMP Performance Metrics SupportedRequested Funds 1.1 Compile tsunami deposits data, southern Tillamook County Produce inundation maps that meet NTHMP guidelines by 2012 $36, Complete Tillamook Co. tsunami inundation map Complete inundation maps for all threatened communities in Oregon by 2013 $328,824 Total Requested for Objective 1:$365,360 January 27, 2010Oregon FY08-09 Accomplishments Objective 1: Mapping & Modeling – Aug. 1, 2010 to July 31, 2011

Oregon FY10 Project Plan TaskNTHMP Performance Metrics SupportedRequested Funds 2.1 Tsunami evacuation maps for 11 communities, Tillamook County Increase the number of tsunami evacuation maps by 10% annually $70, Update online tsunami evacuation map Increase the percentage of NTHMP products available on the web to 90% by 2012 $15, Release Tsunami Information Clearing- house (online) Increase the percentage of NTHMP products available on the web to 90% by 2012; Post 100% if tsunami evacuation maps to the NTHMP web repository by 2012 $15,098 Total Requested for Objective 2:$100,652 January 27, 2010Oregon FY08-09 Accomplishments Objective 2: Mitigation and Education – Aug. 1, 2010 to July 31, 2011

Oregon FY10 Project Plan TaskNTHMP Performance Metrics SupportedRequested Funds 3.1 Support Tsunami Outreach Coordinator Establishing more tsunami resilient communities; Promote a culture of tsunami preparedness and response. $94, Help 3 communities meet TsunamiReady guidelines Increase the number of recognized TsunamiReady communities to 105 in 2013; Annually increase local warning reception capabilities by 10%, based on the baseline established by $17, Disseminate online education information to communities Explore the feasibility of integrating tsunami information into K-12 education; Facilitate educational events. $16, Support community organizers for 3 areas Establishing more tsunami resilient communities; Promote a culture of tsunami preparedness and response. $117,720 January 27, 2010Oregon FY08-09 Accomplishments Objective 3: TsunamiReady Support

Oregon FY10 Project Plan TaskNTHMP Performance Metrics SupportedRequested Funds 3.5 Coordinate the 2011 Tsunami Road Show Establishing more tsunami resilient communities; Promote a culture of tsunami preparedness and response. $5,886 Total Requested for Objective 3:$252,722 TOTAL REQUESTED FOR FY2010:$718,733 January 27, 2010Oregon FY08-09 Accomplishments Objective 3: TsunamiReady Support (continued)

How many outreach activities in FY08? Briefed Gleneden Beach Fire District on tsunami hazards – 7/23/09 Met with Taft High School students about tsunamis – 10/6/08 Briefed Seaside School District on tsunami hazards – 10/10/08 Oregon Coast Fire Chief’s Association semi-annual meeting – 2/6/09 Taped video documentary with Oregon Field Guide – 2/25/ Briefed Rockaway City Council on tsunami hazards – 3/25/ Tsunami Road Show, 7 cities in 7 days – 4/4/09 to 4/10/09 Townhall meeting on tsunami hazards, Newport City Hall – 4/21/09 Oregon Coast Fire Chief’s Association semi-annual meeting – 7/17/09 Total outreach and public education events attended: >15