Brian Voigt NR385 – Ecological Economics Spatial economics and location theory – implications for modeling environmental impacts of future development patterns Brian Voigt NR385 – Ecological Economics Brian Voigt NR385 – Ecological Economics evolution of urban form over time and the factors influencing change from small villages to metropolitan regions focus on residential location, but this inherently includes a discussion of industrial location’s influence on employment and utilization of natural rsources

Early City Development? Agricultural surplus technological innovation: irrigation, plow The defensive city fortified storage facility The religious city worship on a grander scale scale economies in the provision of religion early cities were able to form as a result of agricultural surplus early technological innovation brought about the domestication of grains, farm equipment, irrigation Between 1953 and 1993, agricultural employment fell by more than 67% the number of farms decreased by more than 58% average farm size increased by more than 95% defensive city storage of surplus food for distribution made for lucrative targets economies of scale for food storage employees of storage facility live near job, and small city forms employees exchanged services for piece of agricultural surplus religious city first cities developed as a result of large-scale religion (Lewis Mumford, 1961) earth gods replaced by celestial gods large temples at central locations replaced home-based worship role of the military cities both encouraged and protected against aggressive behavior safety in numbers

A Brief History of Location Theory David Ricardo (1772 – 1823) theory of differential rent based on variation in fertility J-H von Thünen (1738 - 1850) model based on a central market place with varying land uses radiating outward Walter Christaller (1893 – 1969) theory of central place defined by hexagonal pattern based on top-down approach August Lösch (1906 – 1945) bottom up approach modeled after Christaller William Alonso (1933 – 1999) model of demand for land as a function of distance from CBD locus of opportunities v indifference surface early theory was most applicable to agrarian society ricardo variation in fertility caused farmers to bid up price of most fertile land, benefiting the landowner influence on marx’s writings on adversarial class relations

von Thünen’s Isolated State von Thunen The Isolated State published in 1826 based on the central market place incorporated location, distance, and the cost of transportation of goods durability of goods profitability, based on price assumptions the central market place (the “Isolated State”) is self sufficient with no external influences, the market price for a good is the same for all producers unoccupied land surrounds the central market place, the landscape is homogenous, as are the factors of production for agriculture (soil, climate, etc), the yield per unit per acre is the same everywhere major transportation routes do not exist on the left land uses denoted by concentric rings slope of line is the cost of transport distance on the x-axis profit or price of good on the y-axis on the right resulting land use pattern

A Brief History of Location Theory David Ricardo (1772 – 1823) theory of differential rent based on variation in fertility J-H von Thünen (1738 - 1850) model based on a central market place with varying land uses radiating outward Walter Christaller (1893 – 1969) theory of central place defined by functions of cities hexagonal pattern based on top-down approach August Lösch (1906 – 1945) bottom up approach modeled after Christaller William Alonso (1933 – 1999) model of demand for land as a function of distance from CBD locus of opportunities v indifference surface incorporated transportation changed geometry and assumed interaction between varying levels of urban form

Christaller & Lösch Villages at vertices Town = City = Conurbation = Christaller assumed larger served smaller, while Losch accounted for possibility that smaller could serve larger Losch’s model minimizes both transportation and production costs to explain the location of centers, the distance between centers, the amount of goods or services produced, and the patterns of trade regional functions performed at the conurbation and distributed throughout region not a central function if production relied on material from outside the area distance between centers correspond to maximum practical travel distance from outlying area to the market array of larger hexagons can then be placed on top of the smaller set to denote the service areas of the next size order (square root of three) assumptions heterogeneous production homogenous area of location economies of scale in production exogenous transport cost and supply center location

A Brief History of Location Theory David Ricardo (1772 – 1823) theory of differential rent based on variation in fertility J-H von Thünen (1738 - 1850) model based on a central market place with varying land uses radiating outward Walter Christaller (1893 – 1969) theory of central place defined by hexagonal pattern based on top-down approach August Lösch (1906 – 1945) bottom up approach modeled after Christaller William Alonso (1933 – 1999) Location and Land Use (1964) model of demand for land as a function of distance from CBD locus of opportunities v indifference surface monocentric city model adapted from von Thunen locus of opportunities representation of all the opportunities open to a consumer at a particular income level indifference surface set of combinations of land quantity, composite good and distance to the CBD such that any combination is equally satisfying to the individual a steeper bid-rent function for commercial activity results in the central location of employment

Evolution Of Urban Form Topographic constraints Ports and waterways (1840s) Walking city 2 mile radius = 1 hr walk from edge to center (pre-1850s) Transportation options Horse drawn and electric trolley – expanded ring to 5 miles around city, linear development, empty space b/t trolley lines (1850s – 1900) Cars and buses – expanded ring to 10 mile, fill in between trolley lines, primarily auto dependent (1930s) Decentralization of the central city Redefining the American dream – post-WWII development of the 1940s Suburban, ex-urban, and edge cities Sprawling development edge cities formed at the nodes of central transportation routes

City Statistics 1950: 70% of population lived in cities 2000: 60% of population lived in suburbs Of the 157 urbanized areas in 1950 69 million people and 12,715 sq miles Same 157 urbanized areas in 2000 155 million people and 52,388 sq miles Net result 2.25 x population 4.12 x land area expansion of city size due to population growth, transportation alternatives, flight from central cities, cost of land in suburban areas, relocation of job opportunities, increasing need for large parking accommodations sprawling, low-density development with increased reliance on automobiles

Factors of Influence on Urban Form Social factors segregation – racial, class, religious congestion Economic maximizing individual satisfaction (Alonso, 1964) cheap land and subsidized transportation costs Technological change transportation telecommunication – substitute for human interaction? Government policy Federal – highways, water & sewer State & local – land use planning Sennett Uses of Disorder, 1970 landscape is increasingly homogenous surround ourselves with others that are more similar than different congestion is why people fled the central city, yet now highways are congested, suburban streets are congested, and the general reliance on the automobile has in many ways created more problems than they have solved economic – tradeoff of more land at a cheaper price combined with increased personal transportation costs that are subsidized through government expenditure techno change transportation – has broadened the area we now know as city, and decreased the areas of unknown global commerce has changed the nature of business and affected the nature of nature telecommunication electronic cottages Toffler, 1980 federal expenditures 2001 federal highway = $26.4 billion 2001 water and sewer grants = $3.6 billion

Land Use Planning Land Use Planning Originated in the 1920s as a means to protect human health and welfare from neighboring industrial development Can we protect people from themselves? Segregation of land uses Causes and characteristics of sprawl affordable transportation, federally funded highways affordable home mortgage rates post WWII low density, non-contiguous land patterns Can we plan our way out of sprawl? Portland v Phoenix Originated in the 1920s as a means to protect human health and welfare from neighboring industrial development Can we protect people from themselves? Segregation of land uses Causes and characteristics of sprawl affordable transportation, federally funded highways affordable home mortgage rates post WWII low density, non-contiguous land patterns Can we plan our way out of sprawl? Portland v Phoenix initiated to protect population from incompatible uses increasing population calls for central planning / decision making body because the cumulative impact of individual decisions combine to influence change orders of magnitude beyond the initial scope of the decision and in many cases unbeknownst to the individual decision maker Kahn (1966) called this the tyranny of small decisions (Kahn, 1966) maximizing individual satisfaction, results in sacrifices the accommodation of the public well-being, through environmental degredation. Market failures in the form of subsidized growth have minimized the risk of development in naturally hazardous and environmentally sensitive areas impacts to ecosystem services and environmental quality segregation of land uses has increased reliance on automobile as primary mode of transport increased impervious surface, air pollution large-lot zoning results in fragmented habitat conversion of land from natural to urban form informed decision-making can lead to problem avoidance, reducing costs of mitigation, restoration, and general habitat impairment

Modeling with UrbanSim University of Washington, Dept of Urban Design and Planning www.urbansim.org Dynamic disequilibrium approach avoid oversimplification of general equilibrium conditions perfectly competitive market, products are homogenous, resources are mobile, present and future costs are known to all Actor adjustment processes occur at varying rates short: travel behavior medium: household / business location long: real estate development Simulates annual evolution of households, jobs and real estate individual-based for household and employment location grid-based real estate market Allows for hypothesis testing on specific policy alternatives or impact evaluation of scheduled events Geographic Information Systems pre-modeling: data development and organization post-modeling: data organization and visualization of output Cellular automata tessellation of cells, usually square grids establish initial conditions and transition rules between iterations recursive application of rules (Clarke, et al, 1995) self-modifying cellular automata allows rules to change via feedback mechanisms triggered by growth rate or percent land under development Agent-based representation of autonomous actors emergence of macro-scale behavior based on interaction simulation of traffic patterns, spatial location of agent captures mobility, migration and suburban development Sub-optimal nature of real estate investment durability aids in influencing price increases importance of transport network scheduled events include changes to the transportation network, new industry from Waddell, et al, 2003

UrbanSim cnt’d Model architecture Model components suite of tools that interact through a data store each component is recalculated annually exogenous inputs macroeconomic model predicts future conditions based on logistic regression analysis travel demand forecasts future travel conditions user input – changing land use policy, scheduled events Model components accessibility – normal good w/positive economic value economic transition – distribution of jobs through employment sectors demographic transition – distribution of households by type over time employment mobility – P(job moves from one location to another) household mobility – P(household moves from one place to another) employment location – P(new or relocated job, located at a particular site) household location – P(new or relocated household, located at particular site) from Waddell, et al, 2003

Applying UrbanSim to Northern VT Data Economic land value, employment Biophysical topography, soils Infrastructure roads, transit Planning & zoning land use, available housing Census population, household income, race, age Case example Chittenden, Addison and Lamoille Counties Model calibration 1990 – 2002 Model run 2000 – 2015 Coordinated research effort: habitat fragmentation northern forest research EPA grant model calibration includes analysis of What level of spatial resolution is best for analyzing and predicting locational phenomena?

Model Outputs – Land Use Change: 1980 - 1994

Conclusions Variation from early theories global market place changing technology Utility of current modeling effort model outputs inform planning process & ecosystem modeling export to GIS for spatial analysis and visualization Relevance to land use planning assess impacts of current development patterns on environmental quality test impacts of alternative land use policies improved alternative to current growth model minimize habitat fragmentation, enhance restoration, and protect species biodiversity changing technology agricultural production transportation realization of desires through “improvements” to quality of life does urban form still exist

"… we have been the most prodigal of people with land, and for years we wasted it with impunity ... no matter how much we fouled it, there was always more over the next hill, or so it seemed." William Whyte (1968), The Last Landscape