How to tell the president the facts Haiganoush K. Preisler Pacific Southwest Research Station USDA Forest Service, Albany, CA 6 August, 2003 JSM – San Francisco

Whenever possible say it with pictures/figures. Complicated concepts may be conveyed using figures.

Generalized Additive Models Often data non Gaussian (e.g., logistic) Multiple regression with partial effects Relationships approximated by sum of non linear non parametric curves. Output is graphical

Effects of observed variables on probability of fire spread

Color map based on fire danger class Color map based on probability

Conclusion Different situations require different solutions Whenever possible say it with a ‘picture bite’