“People are essentially depraved.” Would you accept this claim? Why?

Credibility Who can we believe? SOURCES What can we believe? CLAIMS And how confident can we be in what we believe?

Assessing Credibility There is no simple rule for assessing credibility. Assessing credibility requires judgment. Judgment depends on background knowledge. This sort of judgment is basically induction.

Gradations of Credibility b All-or-nothing: a false dilemma

Gradations of Credibility b All-or-nothing: a false dilemma A false dilemma presents two choices as though they were the only options, when in fact, other options exist. The factor of confidence is important in how we follow up acceptance or rejection of a claim.

Gradations of Credibility b All-or-nothing: a false dilemma b Once-and-for-always: false confidence

Gradations of Credibility b All-or-nothing: a false dilemma b Once-and-for-always: false confidence The history of an individual or an idea counts for a lot in determining credibility, but people and conditions both change. So, credibility may go up or down. And it may do so incrementally.

Gradations of Credibility b All-or-nothing: a false dilemma b Once-and-for-always: false confidence b Intuitions, feelings, and logic

Gradations of Credibility b All-or-nothing: a false dilemma b Once-and-for-always: false confidence b Intuitions, feelings, and logic It is important to use all of our resources in the determination of credibility. This means, in part, being able to differentiate what helps in focusing attention from what counts in making a decision. Intuitions and feelings generally precede logic.

Assessing content of a claim b Role of personal observation Focus of attention Preparation to distinguish features Conditions of observation Expectations, beliefs, biases

Assessing content of a claim b Role of personal observation b Role of background information Initial plausibility Novelty and conflict Extent of background information

Assessing content of a claim b Role of personal observation b Role of background information b Arguments in favor and against

Assessing content of a claim b Role of personal observation b Role of background information b Arguments in favor and against May justify high or low confidence in its truth May presuppose unstated beliefs May look to future consequences of accepting

Credibility of a source b Knowledge b Ability b Motivation Education and experience both matter Physical and mental factors may both be relevant Desires and beliefs, including prejudices may work in various ways