Data Assimilation in the NCEO (National Centre for Earth Observation) Peter Jan van Leeuwen Data-Assimilation Research Centre DARC University of Reading.

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Presentation transcript:

Data Assimilation in the NCEO (National Centre for Earth Observation) Peter Jan van Leeuwen Data-Assimilation Research Centre DARC University of Reading

NCEO Structure EO for climate diagnosis and prediction (Integrating Theme) Global carbon cycle Atmospheric composition Dynamic Earth and geo-hazards Cryosphere and polar oceans Data assimilation and treatment of uncertainty (Cross Cutting Theme) Training Capability and knowledge exchange Wider NERC supported EO programme Hazardous weather and water resources EO informatics (Underpinning Theme)

What is data assimilation? Solution is pdf! NO INVERSION !!! Bayes theorem:

High-resolution weather prediction Met Office system / 1.5km (c) MeteoFrance

The Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation System Assimilation of FAPAR and atm. CO 2 flask data to optimise parameter values (and uncertainties) of a process-based terrestrial ecosystem model (BETHY). (Scholze et al., Bristol)

Posterior uncertainties on parameters Relative Error Reduction 1–  opt /  prior

Net C fluxes and their uncertainties Long term mean fluxes to atmosphere (gC/m 2 /year) and uncertainties

Forests and climate change Science 320, 1444 (2008); Gordon B. Bonan, et al. Forests and Climate Change

INTRO » CONTEXT » DATA ASSIMILATION » SCALING ISSUES » SOLUTION Scales of Flux Observations Global 1000x1000 km 100x100 km 10x10 km 1x1 km 100x100 m 10x10 m 1x1 m ≤10x10 cm ≤Second Minute Hour Day Month Year ≥Decade CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O SF 6 CO H Rn

Rank histogram truth vs. particles 1000 dimensional system