Unit 12 University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Risk Assessment: Riskit Analysis Graph CSEM04: Risk and Opportunities of Systems Change in Organisations Prof. Helen M Edwards

Unit 12 University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Overview Riskit Analysis Graph Background Riskit Analysis Graph Components General Examples Software Systems Examples –A Riskit Analysis Graph for a Systems Change Case Study –A student generated graph

Unit 12 University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Riskit Analysis Graph Background This technique belongs to the Riskit method Riskit was designed to manage risk during systems development. –However, there is nothing in it that restricts its use to such a perspective. Kontio, J (1997) The Riskit Method for Software Risk Management, version 1.00, CS-TR-3782, Computer Science Technical Reports. University of Maryland. –Available from

Unit 12 University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Risk Analysis Graph (example from the Riskit Manual)

Unit 12 University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Riskit Analysis Graph Components The overall risk being evaluated An event that may occur as a result of the risk happening A possible action that can be taken in response to the event happening The resultant costs to the organisation on taking a specific action Consequences can be either deterministic (known): full arrow. Or stochastic (probabilistic) : dashed arrow An o utcome (can be omitted) shows the situation in a project after the risk event has occurred but before any corrective action is taken. Outcome

Unit 12 University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO General Example of Riskit Analysis Graph Components Risk Factor: a high cholesterol diet Risk Event: a doctor's diagnosis of a patient’s heart problem Risk Outcome: a diagnosed heart disease exists Risk Reaction: treatment of heart problem Risk Effect: hospital stay Utility Loss*: loss of time, expenses: in this case emotional upset and disruption to normal life. SWAP TO RAG EXAMPLE SLIDES *net effect of “pain” felt by individuals

Unit 12 University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Risk Factor: living near a fault line of earth's plates Risk Event: an earthquake Risk Outcome: some buildings/roads destroyed Risk Reaction: reconstruction of infrastructure Risk Effect: cost of reconstruction Utility Loss*: loss of time, expenses –for one individual minimal - since personal losses low and covered by insurance, –for another catastrophic - since home destroyed and without insurance. General Example of Riskit Analysis Graph Components *net effect of “pain” felt by individuals

Unit 12 University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Software Systems Example Risk Factor: inexperience of personnel Risk Event: a system crashes Risk Outcome: system out of operation for up to 8 hours Risk Reaction: systems operational after delay, back up data restored Risk Effect: added cost Utility Loss: perceived harm experienced by stakeholders: in this case minimal since only small data entry per day and data backed up daily

Unit 12 University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Software Systems Example Risk Factor: use of new development methods Risk Event: key personnel leave Risk Outcome: personnel and competence shortage Risk Reaction: recruiting initiated, staff reassigned Risk Effect: two month delay Utility Loss: perceived harm experienced by stakeholders: in this case catastrophic since software delay results in client imposing financial penalty.

Unit 12 University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Effect Set Project behind schedule:10 months budget overrun by £10,000 Reaction Do nothing Allocate more resource Utility Loss Delaying other projects (significant problem) Unable to process all potential orders - lost business (catastrophic) Effect Set Project behind schedule: 2 weeks budget overrun £25,000 Utility Loss Reduced budget available for planned projects resulting in delay to some non- critical projects (minor problem) A Riskit Analysis Graph for a Systems Change Case Study Factor Lack of IT specialist Factor Lack of staff training Event Project costs underestimated. Outcome Project behind schedule, exceeding budgets Factor Lack of IT specialist

Unit 12 University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO A Riskit Analysis Graph for a Systems Change Case Study (part 1) Factor Lack of IT specialist Factor Lack of staff training Event Project costs underestimated. Outcome Project behind schedule, exceeding budgets Factor Lack of IT specialist Reaction Do nothing Allocate more resource

Unit 12 University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Effect Set Project behind schedule:10 months budget overrun by £10,000 Reaction Do nothing Allocate more resource Utility Loss Delaying other projects (significant problem) Unable to process all potential orders - lost business (catastrophic) Effect Set Project behind schedule: 2 weeks budget overrun £25,000 Utility Loss Reduced budget available for planned projects resulting in delay to some non-critical projects (minor problem) A Riskit Analysis Graph for a Systems Change Case Study (part 2)

Unit 12 University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO A student generated graph