NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap 1 H1A: Understand How Solar Disturbances Propagate to Earth Phase , Understand our Home in Space Density, temperature and magnetic field structure of solar wind & CMEs within the first 30 Rs Coronagraph/heliospheric imager, radio- burst measurements of shock speed & strength from Sun to Earth Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Use all available density, temperature and magnetic field info from the Sun to the magnetopause to model Sun-to- Earth CME evolution Implementation Phase 1: Required Understanding Radial Evolution of 3D CME structure Coronal and IP Drag force CME –CME & CME-solar wind coupling Radial evolution of shock standoff distance & geometry Radial profiles of CME velocity from Sun to Earth Correspondence between near-Sun and near-Earth CME substructures True angular extent of CMEs and shocks ACE, Cluster, SoHO, Wind -CME & shock parameters, near-Earth SW/IMF SIRA -- Image particle acceleration site in shocks STEREO imaging and in situ CME observations from Sun to Earth, 3D CME structure Theory Program Develop theory of particle acceleration by CME-driven shocks Simultaneous imaging & in situ CME observations In situ field & particle measurements of CME structure at several radial locations INNER HELIOSPHERIC SENTINELS CME radial evolution STP Program LWS mission Existing Assets Enabling LWS/TR&T MHD models of CME propagation & comparison with observations. Model fast CMEs SDO Solar Source of CMEs LWS Program Contributing Potential ExplorerEnabling Solar Probe near-Sun CME structure Flagship mission Enabling MMS Near-Earth SW/IMF STP ProgramContributing 1 L1 Monitor, coronagraph - solar wind conditions NASA or Other Agencies

NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap 2 H1B: Identify how space weather effects are produced in geospace Phase , Understand our Home in Space Continuous solar and upstream solar wind measurements Inner magnetosphere in situ and remote sensing measurements Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Coupled global geospace modeling tools Implementation Phase 1: Targeted Understanding Coupling between near-Earth particles and fields Low and midlatitude electrodynamics Heavy ion influence on magnetospheri c processes Hemispheric I- T asymmetries Relative importance of internal and external drivers Ionosphere- thermosphere cross scale coupling Influence from above and below on the upper atmosphere Magnetic coupling and energy release (reconnection) ACE, Cluster, IMAGE, FAST, Polar, TIMED Modeling Advancements: Geospace General Circulation Model Theory Program: IT coupling, RB physics, reconnection Rocket Campaigns: IT coupling, MI coupling Coordinated/simultaneous ionosphere- thermosphere measurements Multipoint measurements near a reconnection site Radial alignment of magnetotail measurements Radiation belts: local or diffusive source? Data assimilation in geospace modeling Multipoint measurements in connected regions of geospace Substorm Onsets (nominally via Auroral imaging) Existing Assets GEC, MMS STP ProgramEnabling ITSP+ITImager, RBSP SDO LWS ProgramEnabling STEREO provides quantitative link between in situ and remote sensing of CMEs STP ProgramContributing AIM, CNOFS, THEMIS, TWINS ITM Waves, SECEP EnablingExplorer Program L1 Monitor, ORBITALS, RAVENS PartnershipsContributing 2

NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap 3 H1C: Identify the impacts of solar variability on Earth’s atmosphere Phase , Understand our Home in Space Global density, composition, temperature, and winds: surface km? over a solar cycle Spectral, spatial, and temporal variation of photon and energetic particle inputs over a solar cycle Enabling Capabilities & Measurements First principles data-assimilating models for predicting atmospheric structure and composition and their response to varying energy inputs Implementation Phase 1: Required Understanding Composition changes resulting from solar energy deposition Temporal, spectral, and spatial variability of solar energetic particle inputs Temporal and spectral variability of solar ionizing and dissociating irradiance Effect of solar variability on Neutral & plasma dynamics, structure, & circulation Tidal, planetary, and gravity wave generation, modulation, and coupling Parameterizations of turbulence and wave effects in GCMs Horizontal and vertical energy and constituent transport Radiative cooling in response to variable energy deposition IMAGE, TIMED - changes in mesospheric temperature / thermospheric density Model Development: Whole Atmosphere GCM Theory Program: Wave interactions and Coupling Climate change mechanisms Rocket Campaigns: Energy inputs, Atm. coupling Energy redistribution by tides, gravity and planetary waves and turbulence Global imaging of the ITM AIM - Polar mesospheric clouds CNOFS - changes in thermsopheric densities Explorer Program Existing Assets ITSP + ITImaging, GEC LWS ProgramEnabling SDO UV input into system LWS ProgramContributing Enabling Do impacts of solar variability affect all layers of the atmosphere? Long term calibrated observations of changes in different atmospheric layers 3 DMSP, L1 Monitor, NPOESS PartnershipsEnabling ITMWaves, SECEP Enabling Candidate Explorers Distinguish and identify the coupling between anthropogenic and natural mechanisms

NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap 4 H1D: Discover How Space Plasmas and Planetary Environments Interact Phase , Understand our Home in Space Constellations of satellites in complementary orbits to resolve space-time ambiguities and enable predictive models Simultaneous 3D plasma and neutral drift measurements Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Tomographic and occultation studies to quantify large-scale motions of plasmas and neutrals Implementation Phase 1: Required Understanding Energy flow between plasma and neutrals Morphology of ionospheric current systems Effects of planetary magnetic field geometry on energy and momentum transfer Tidal, planetary, and gravity wave generation,modulation, and coupling. Plasma & neutral dynamics, structure, circulation, & instabilities Variability of energetic particle precipitation patterns Roles of varying atmospheric chemistry on heat, momentum, and energy transfer between atmospheric regions. ITM Waves To understand sources of ionospheric structure, and responses to geomagnetic storms and gravity waves Model Development To include assimilation for nowcasting and forecasting Theory Program To include cross-scale coupling processes, and effects at the upper and lower boundaries of the atmosphere of the Earth and Mars Rocket Campaigns To provide high resolution, coordinated sampling of key mesospheric and thermospheric regions Measurements of 3D particle distribution functions from thermal to tens of MeV Empirical and first-principles models for cause and effect based prediction CNOFS, IMAGE, TIMED, AIM, SDO Existing Assets ITSP+ITImager To understand sources of ionospheric structure, and responses to geomagnetic storms, EUV radiation LWS ProgramEnabling Contributing Potential Explorer Measure composition, temperature and winds of planetary upper atmospheres GEC To understand the energy exchange processes in the current layer at the top of the atmosphere STP ProgramEnabling Mars Aeronomy, MSL, MTO Mars L1 Monitor Contributing Partnerships 4 L1 Monitor PartnershipsContributing Solar Wind Interactions

Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Implementation Phase 2: Targeted Understanding Coronal vector magnetic field evolution and subsurface field evolution UV Spectroscopic determination of Pre/Post-shock density, speed, compression; ion/electron velocity distributions, charge states, abundances; Alfven speed, magnetic field, reconnection rates in CME shocks, flares, current sheets Visible light Coronagraph/ Polarimeter for electron density structure and evolution CME magnetic field evolution behind the disk Near-Sun in situ measurements of charged particle distribution, composition, waves & fields; neutrons, hard X-rays & gamma rays On-Disk UV/EUV Spectrographic imaging for flow velocities, energy release signatures; Disk Magnetograph for magnetic field topology and evolution Buildup of energy & helicity in coronal magnetic fields CME magnetic field orientation Relationship between eruptive filaments, active regions, CMEs, and SEPs Evolution of global solar magnetic field Relationship between CME shocks, flare/ CME current sheets and Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) Relationship between global field and solar disturbances SDO for global magnetic field and active region measurements, ITSP, RBSP Solar Probe for near-Sun in situ observations SIRA to characterize CME shocks DOPPLER to identify disk signatures of CME, flare, SEP initiation, SEPP/NE to characterize sources of CMEs RAM to identify disk signatures of CME, flare, SEP initiation, GEC impacts SHIELDS for tracking disk features behind the limb Radio burst measurements of near-Sun CME shocks Existing Assets Solar Orbiter for near-Sun in situ observations Enabling Flagship Mission Enabling LWS Enabling STP Program Contributing Contributing LWS Contributing Partnership H2A: Identify Precursors of Important Solar Disturbances Phase , Understand our Home in Space 5 Whether disturbance is geoeffective

H2B: Quantify mechanisms & processes required for geospace forecasting Phase , Understand Our home in Space Continuous solar and upstream solar wind measurements Multi-angle remote sensing of inner magnetosphere Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Validation and improvement of global geospace modeling tools Implementation Phase 2: Targeted Understanding Near-Earth plasma loss mechanisms High latitude electrodynamics Ionospheric outflow causes and effects Hemispheric auroral asymmetries Auroral acceleration physics Role of gravity waves in I-T physics Equatorial ionosphere-atmosphere coupling Global dynamic magnetospheric topology GEC, ITSP, MMS, RBSP, ITSP, SDO, Sentinels AMS, Dayside Boundary Con. ITMW, Conjugate auroral imagers, Tropical ITM Coupler, SECEP Modeling Advancements: Validation/verification of GGCM Theory advancements: Particle acceleration, chaotic processes Rocket Campaigns: Conjugate/interhemispheric studies Multi-angle remote sensing of ionosphere-thermosphere Constellation of satellites across the magnetopause Constellation throughout the magnetotail Solar wind drivers of radiation belt dynamics Data assimilation throughout geospace Coordinated/simultaneous measurements in connected regions of geospace Conjugate auroral imaging 6 L1 Monitor, Coronagraph NASA or Other Agencies Explorer Candidates Exisiting Assets MagCon STP ProgramEnabling GEMINI ?? ProgramEnabling ?? ProgramContributing

H2C: Integrate Solar Variability Effects into Earth Climate Models (joint with Earth Science) – Phase , Understand Our Home in Space Stratosphere-troposphere coupling in polar vortex? Continuous observations of high- frequency responses of atmospheric composition to varying solar input Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Highly-resolved budgets of surface emissions of radiatively-active gases Implementation Phase 2: Required Understanding Development, persistence, and decay of stratospheric circulation anomalies Interactions among reactive species in middle atmosphere in response to solar variability Downward propagation of circulation anomalies into troposphere Upward propagation of climate variability into middle and upper atmosphere, with consequent effects on circulation and wave dynamics Variations and secular changes in stratospheric and tropospheric polar vortex SECEP, ITMWaves L1 and L2 for continuous global obs (includes SW/IMF irradiance monitor) Profiling temperature and composition Model Development: Whole Atmosphere GCM with coupled land, oceans, and chemistry Theory Programs: Radiation, Hydrology, and Life; EPP and clouds; Strat-trop coupling Accurately-calibrated planetary albedo at high spatial and spectral resolution Vertical profiling of chemical variations in the middle atmosphere Changes in surface energy budget UV effects on ecosystems Variations in clouds, temperatures, the hydrologic cycle, and winds Changes in reactive and GH gases Continued observations of the high- frequency variability of surface and tropospheric climate 7 Long term Climate Explorer Candidate Enabling Rocket Campaigns: Polar Night, Calibration/Validation, Test flights

H2D: Determine how magnetic fields, solar wind and irradiance affect the habitability of solar system bodies - Phase , Understand Our Home in Space Density, composition, temperature, and winds: surface through thermosphere for planetary bodies Spectral, spatial, and temporal variation of photon and energetic particle inputs to planetary atmospheres Enabling Capabilities & Measurements First principles data-assimilating models for planetary bodies which describe atmospheric structure and composition and their response to varying energy inputs Implementation Phase 2: Impacts of solar variability on planetary atmospheres and surfaces Quantitative drivers of the geospace environment Magnetosphere - atmosphere – surface coupling Mars Aeronomy Probe (MAP), Titan Explorer (TE), Lunar Solar Wind History Experiment Europa Mission Geospace System Response Imager (GSRI), ITM Waves Model Development: Planetary Whole Atmosphere GCM Combined disk/plasma models Theory Program: Coupling in planetary atm. Rocket Campaigns: Coupling Energy redistribution by tides, gravity and planetary waves and turbulence Explorer Candidate Partnerships Extremes of the variable radiation environments at solar system bodies Photochemistry of planetary atmospheres Targeted Understanding 8 Dust environments of planetary bodies Ionosphere / Magnetosphere Imaging Enabling MSL, Spitzer, Existing Assets Venus Aeronomy Probe (VAP), Space Physics Package Strategic mission Contributing How magnetospheres evolve Observations of near sun environment Combined debris disk and 3-d MHD models Solar Probe, RBSP Plasma physics of near-star environments

H3A/B: Provide scientific basis for continuous forecasting of conditions throughout the solar system - Phase 2025-beyond, Understand Our Home in Space Continuous solar and upstream solar wind measurements Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Robust, mature, and fast global geospace modeling tools Implementation Phase 3: Targeted Understanding Complete coverage of magnetotail Understand the system nonlinearities throughout geospace Complete coverage of inner magnetosphere Complete coverage of I-T system Existing Assets: MagCon, AMS, ITM-Waves, GEMINI, Dayside Boundary Con. New Strategic Missions: IMC, ITC New Explorer Missions: Conjugate auroral imagers, ACE replacement Modeling Advancements: Operational transition of GGCMs Theory advancements: System nonliearities and feedbacks Rocket Campaigns: Regular launches and long-duration balloons Complete coverage of dayside boundaries Mature data assimilation techniques Coordinated/simultaneous measurements in connected regions of geospace Conjugate auroral imaging Understand the system coupling throughout geospace Understand the system dynamics throughout geospace 9

H3C: Forecast Climate Change (joint with Earth Science) Phase 2025-beyond, Understand Our Home in Space Systematic and continuing model evaluation using ongoing observations Continuing global observations of the sun, geospace, and Earth’s climate Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Implementation Phase 3: 2025-beyond Required Understanding Quantitative attribution of climate variations to solar vs internal forcing Interactions of solar photons and energetic particles with atmospheric composition Propagation of solar photons throughout atmosphere and interaction with clouds and aerosol Responses of surface energy partition and emissions of radiatively-active gases Interactions among atmospheric radiation, composition, structure, hydrologic cycle, and clouds Upward propagation of climate changes via waves and mean flows Changes in spectral (e.g., UV) and directional (direct vs diffuse) characteristics of solar radiation at surface New Explorer Missions: Active atmospheric profiling for chemistry and structure Detailed characterization of changing hydrologic cycle? Model Development: Prediction of external and internal forcing and response Prediction of future climate change with well-tested coupled models that include solar interactions Whole Earth system data assimilation including life, chemistry, oceans, land, the atmosphere to 650 km Global electrodynamic circuit Solar subsurface and deep interior convective flows to understand relationship between dynamo, flows, solar cycle Solar Polar Imager TITMC, L1 Monitor (irradiance, particles) SECEP, SHIELDS AAMP Enabling Contributing New Partnership Missions: Global Alt. distribution Temperature / Composition monitor

H3D: Determine how stellar activity and plasmas affect planetary formation and evolution that govern habitability through time - Phase 2025-beyond, Understand Our Home in Space Global density, composition, temperature, and winds: surface - thermosphere for planetary bodies Observational and predictive capability for spectral, spatial, and temporal variation of photon and energetic particle inputs over short and long time scales Enabling Capabilities & Measurements Operational first principles data- assimilating models for planetary atmospheres which predict atmospheric structure and composition and their response to varying energy inputs Implementation Phase 3: Required Understanding Composition changes resulting from solar energy deposition Temporal, spectral, and spatial variability of solar energetic particle inputs Temporal and spectral variability of solar ionizing and dissociating irradiance Magnetospheric – atmospheric – surface coupling Existing Assets: ITM-Waves GSRI Model Development: Operational Planetary Whole Atmosphere GCM Theory Program: Coupling in planetary atm. Rocket Campaigns: Energy redistribution by tides, gravity and planetary waves and turbulence Explorer Candidate What determines the habitability of planets What are the impacts of solar variability on planetary atmospheres? 11 Titan Explorer (TE) Strategic missionsEnabling Evolution of Planetary systems from proto-planetary debris disks Combined debris disk and 3-d MHD models Observations of debris disks around other stars Space Interferometry Mission (SIM), Terrestrial Planet Finder (TPF), the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), Stellar Imager Model Development: Combined disk/plasma models Theory Program: Properties of dusty plasmas JPO Transfer of momentum between rotating magnetized bodies and their surrounding plasmas Observations of momentum transfer to planetary magnetospheres Observations of solar cycles on other Sun-like stars to understand relationship of rotation rate & dynamo