The Contribution of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones to the Warm Season Rainfall Climatology of the Southwest US Kristen L. Corbosiero (UCLA) Michael.

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Presentation transcript:

The Contribution of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones to the Warm Season Rainfall Climatology of the Southwest US Kristen L. Corbosiero (UCLA) Michael Dickinson (AEF) and Lance Bosart (SUNY Albany)

Motivation: Easterly waves and tropical cyclones (TCs) of the eastern North Pacific initiate Gulf of California moisture surges that account for a significant portion of summer rainfall in the southwest US The eastern North Pacific is the most active basin for tropical cyclone development per unit area, per unit time (length of the TC season) Nora 1997Lester 1992

Motivation: Do tropical cyclones ever reach the southwest US? Englehart and Douglas (2001) examined TC rainfall in western Mexico and found 3-4 storms per year affect the region bringing as much as 60% of the summer rainfall Extend the study of Englehart and Douglas (2001) north into the southwest US Henriette 2007Marie 1984

Data and Methdology: National Hurricane Center (NHC) Best Track data set to find all storms that crossed 25˚N between June 16 th and October 15 th 1958 to 2003 Climate Prediction Center’s daily (12 UTC-12 UTC), gridded (.25˚ x.25˚) Unified Precipitation Dataset (UPD) ( European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting re-analysis (ERA40; 1.125˚ resolution) Examined maps of rainfall and 700 hPa heights and relative vorticity to determine on which days, if any, rainfall associated with a tropical cyclone fell over the southwest US

TS10 H11 H10 Diana Claudia Jen-Kath Emily Kirsten Katrina Hyacinth Pauline Norma Olivia Hyacinth Joanne Kathleen Liza Doreen Glenda Heather Olivia Manuel Marie Norbert Newton Raymond Lester Hilary Ismael Fausto Nora Isis Hilary Ignacio Marty National Hurricane Center Best Track 35 TCs that affected the SW US

Number of days with at least one active Eastern Pacific TC Number of days rainfall associated with an Eastern Pacific TC fell in the southwest US

Average Daily Precipitation Southwest US (31°-40°N, 104°-118°W)

NHC Best Track All Eastern Pacific TCs Return rate of a TC of any intensity to the southwest US

Average September Eastern Pacific SSTs, hPa vertical wind shear, & hPa layer averaged winds

NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Mean and standardized anomaly, 500 hPa heights Day T-5

NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Mean and standardized anomaly, 500 hPa heights Day T-4

NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Mean and standardized anomaly, 500 hPa heights Day T-3

NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Mean and standardized anomaly, 500 hPa heights Day T-2

NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Mean and standardized anomaly, 500 hPa heights Day T-1

NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Mean and standardized anomaly, 500 hPa heights Day T

NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Mean and standardized anomaly, 500 hPa heights Day T+1

NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Mean and standardized anomaly, 500 hPa heights Day T+2

NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Mean and standardized anomaly, 500 hPa heights Day T+3

NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Mean and standardized anomaly, 500 hPa heights Day T+4

NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Mean and standardized anomaly, 500 hPa heights Day T+5

Hurricane Kathleen 1976 Storm contribution to warm season rainfall (%) Storm total precipitation (mm)

DT pressure (hPa), DT winds, & 700 hPa vorticity 00 UTC 11 September 1976 Kathleen

Hurricane Lester 1992 Storm contribution to warm season rainfall (%) Storm total precipitation (mm)

DT pressure (hPa), DT winds, & 700 hPa vorticity 00 UTC 24 August 1992 Lester

Tropical Storm Claudia 1962 Storm contribution to warm season rainfall (%) Storm total precipitation (mm)

DT pressure (hPa), DT winds, & 700 hPa vorticity 06 UTC 25 September 1962 Claudia

Average percentage of the warm season precipitation associated with Eastern Pacific TCs

Southwest US Warm Season Standardized Rainfall Anomalies

Southwest US Warm Season Standardized Rainfall and NINO3 Anomalies

Summary: 35 Eastern Pacific TCs brought significant rainfall to the southwest US between 1958 and 2003 On average, 10-15% of the summer rainfall is contributed by TCs, increasing from east to west across Arizona Two main tracks for TCs into the monsoon region: 1) south to north path into CA and NV, and 2) southwest-northeast “recurvature” track through AZ, NM and CO Lester 1992Isis 1998

NHC Best Tracks (black) ERA hPa vorticity tracks (colors) 14 long lived east Pacific TCs