The Delphi Technique: A Tool For Long Range Travel and Tourism Planning Chapter 39 Research Methodologies

Why Study the Future? If measured by the time between events, time is actually speeding up To cope with the accelerated rate of time, one needs to plan to meet anticipated change Tourism planning and management require looking to the future for events that are likely to influence current decisions, as well as to evaluate future impacts of current decisions Futurism can make a significant contribution to solving tourism planning and management challenges in the next decade and beyond

The Uncertainty Barrier There is a period of time, perhaps three years, beyond which the ability to understand and suggest future events become extremely hazy and uncertain Some uncertainty barriers: There are few experts to call on in gauging future political compromises or in assessing public sentiment Growing world interdependence and intercommunication have grossly complicated the models and the number of parameters involved in the study of future tourism business environment

Future Methodologies Trend extrapolation: The most common way to make projections is to extrapolate historical experience or past trends These techniques are based on the restrictive assumption that casual relationships that have produced past trends will continue to operate in the future However, it is reasonably certain that the future will be nothing like the past

Future Methodologies cont… Scenarios: A scenario is simply a series of events intertwined to form a concept of the future It awakens one to the potential problems that might accompany a proposed action It can help people to decide whether they want to do something and how to do it

Future Methodologies cont… Analytical models: They are based on mathematical relationships between relevant elements that are thought to produce or influence the outcome of the process of interest Theses models are flexible so that the relationships between modeled elements and the absolute levels of elements themselves can be changed for estimating the effect on the performance of a system

Future Methodologies cont… Expert opinion: “Consultants” that make forecasts based on their own special insights and knowledge Their counsel helps one to understand what may be encountered in the future and how the future can be dealt with

The Delphi Technique Description: It is a method used to systematically combine expert knowledge and opinion to arrive at an informed group consensus about the likely occurrence of future events It is based on the assumption that although the future is uncertain, the probabilities can be approximated by individuals who are able to make informed judgments about future contingencies. It is intended to provide a general perspective on the future rather than a sharp picture

Delphi Technique cont.. It encourages individual input by maintaining anonymity among those who take part in the process It replaces direct open debate with a series of questionnaires sent to a selected panel of experts The results are then summarized graphically to show the interquartile range of predictions

Critique This technique has been subjected to much criticism: They say it is difficult to get the experts to stay on a Delphi panel for an extended period of time The study director can have an effect depending on the way in which the statements are phrased can easily lead to misinterpretation This technique usually treats events as independent of one another Although based on many restrictive assumptions, the Delphi technique is useful where decisions have to be made quickly with limited knowledge.

Conclusion Travel and Tourism planning and management require looking into the future for events that are likely to influence current decisions. The rapid change that underlies the future tourism and related travel activities is frequently attributed to advancing technology If planners and managers are to cope, they must focus on the future and plan to meet it through today’s program decisions