Research Goal To improve the understanding, simulation and prediction of Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation (Monsoon ISO and MJO) Diagnostics (Satellite,

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Presentation transcript:

Research Goal To improve the understanding, simulation and prediction of Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation (Monsoon ISO and MJO) Diagnostics (Satellite, SINTEX_F, etc.) Vertical structure SST-feedback-to-ISO Modeling (IPRC_HcGCM: ECHAM-IOM) Air-sea interaction ISO predictability Prediction (IPRC_HcGCM: ECHAM-IOM) ENSO, seasonal ISO, MJO Xiouhua (Joshua) Fu Associate Researcher Theme3, IPRC

Satellite Data Reveal Ocean-feedback to Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillation (MISO) Fu et al. (2006) NASA Aqua/AIRS North Averaged over (85 o E-95 o E): Bay of Bengal Surface Dry layer (AIRS) Boundary-layer Moisture Preconditioning (AIRS) Positive SST (TMI) Surface Convergence (QuikSCAT) Positive rainfall associated with MISO (TRMM) (Oct. 2002)

Forecasting MJO Rainfall with IPRC_HcGCM Jan. 01,1993 Feb.10,1993 OBS Forecast Fu and Wang et al. (2007) (40-days) Maritime Continent TOGA-COARE MJO

OBS Vitart et al. (2007) Jan. 01,1993 Feb. 01,1993 Forecasting MJO VP-200hPa with ECMWF Operational Seasonal Forecast System Forecasts (20-days) Maritime Continent TOGA-COARE MJO

Forecasting Monsoon ISO Rainfall with IPRC_HcGCM Boreal-summer Rainfall over (65 o E-120 o E) OBSForecast (30-days) June 2006

 “Dynamics and moist-thermodynamics of the boreal-summer intraseasonal oscillation”, NSF, Jun 2007-May 2010, $526,836. (PI: B. Wang, Co-PI: X. Fu)  “Application of satellite data to improve the simulation and prediction of tropical intraseasonal oscillation (TISO)”, NASA, Jun 2004-May 2008, $272,333. (PI: X. Fu, Co-PIs: B. Wang, X. Xie)  “Development of an integrated dataset of subseasonal-to- seasonal rainfall forecasts for the Pacific Islands”, NOAA /PRIDE, Jun 2006-May 2008, $99,000. (PIs: N. Colasacco and X. Fu) Research Projects (PI and Co-PI)

Intra-Seasonal Oscillation WCRP-COPES ( )

IPRC Hybrid coupled GCM (IPRC_HcGCM)  Atmospheric component: ECHAM-4 T30L19 AGCM (Roeckner et al. 1996)  Ocean component: Wang-Li-Fu intermediate upper ocean model (0.5 o x0.5 o ) (Wang et al. 1995; Fu and Wang 2001)  Wang, Li, and Chang (1995): upper-ocean thermodynamics  McCreary and Yu (1992): upper-ocean dynamics  Jin (1997) : mean and ENSO (intermediate fully coupled model)  Zebiak and Cane (1987): ENSO (intermediate anomaly coupled model)  Fully coupling without heat flux correction  Coupling region: Tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans (30 o S-30 o N)  Coupling interval: Once per day

Summer Rainfall, SST, and ENSO OBS Model OBS Model MISO: Fu et al. 2003; Fu and Wang 2004a,b

ECHAM-4: 30 days IPRC-HcGCM: 42 days ACC MISO Predictability Measured by ACC (Tier-1) Fu et al. (2007)