Re-thinking the IPCC radiative forcing bar chart: The sector based paradigm Nadine Unger NASA GISS Columbia University.

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Presentation transcript:

Re-thinking the IPCC radiative forcing bar chart: The sector based paradigm Nadine Unger NASA GISS Columbia University

RADIATIVE FORCING OF CLIMATE BETWEEN [IPCC, 2007] PROBLEMS: 1. No information about human activities driving the RF 2. Obscures interactions between SLS 3. SLS RF depends on location of emissions (unlike for CO 2 )

NASA GISS EARTH SYSTEM MODELE: G-PUCCINI

RADIATIVE FORCING BY ECONOMIC SECTOR (20 YR) [Unger et al., 2009]

RADIATIVE FORCING BY ECONOMIC SECTOR (100 YR) [Unger et al., 2009]

RADIATIVE FORCING IMPACTS OF CONVERSION TO PHEV FLEET 50% reduction in on-road emissions; 20% penalty in power generation emissions Net non-CO 2 RF dominates CO 2 RF for 20- and 100-year time horizons! Assessment of technology change impacts must include climate effects of SLS [Unger et al., Atmos. Env., 2009]

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Tami Bond (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign) Surabi Menon (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory) James Wang (Environmental Defense) Drew Shindell (NASA GISS)

RADIATIVE FORCING FROM AVIATION SECTOR EMISSIONS Substantial cooling through aerosol direct RF Ozone RF overestimated when aerosol effects not considered Ice nuclei/cirrus effects? - Future work