1 Keck NGAO Proposal: Management Overview Presenter: P. Wizinowich SSC Meeting June 21, 2006

2 Presentation Sequence Development ProcessDevelopment Process NGAO ProjectNGAO Project Schedule, WBS, BudgetSchedule, WBS, Budget System Design PhaseSystem Design Phase Deliverables, Plan, Schedule, BudgetDeliverables, Plan, Schedule, Budget Management status & next stepsManagement status & next steps

3 WMKO Development Process We are here Next step

4 NGAO Project: Milestones YearMonthMilestone 06July System design phase starts 07June 1 st major funding secured 07Sept System Design Review 08Dec Preliminary Design Review 10Mar Detailed Design Review 12Mar AO & LGS facility pre-ship reviews 12Dec NGS 1 st light 13Jun LGS 1 st light 13Dec Shared-risk science begins This is only a first-cut timeline

5 NGAO Project: Top-level WBS PW

6 NGAO Project: AO Budget AO Cost Estimate = $35M  $10M Estimation approach 1: Comparison to other systemsEstimation approach 1: Comparison to other systems Gemini-S MCAO - $18M in 03 dollars.Gemini-S MCAO - $18M in 03 dollars. Add $7M for 2 additional lasers + 4% inflation  $29MAdd $7M for 2 additional lasers + 4% inflation  $29M Gemini-S GPI - $19M + $6M reserveGemini-S GPI - $19M + $6M reserve Add $15M for LGS & subtract $5M for instrument  $35MAdd $15M for LGS & subtract $5M for instrument  $35M TMT NFIRAOS - $25 for AO & $24M for LGSTMT NFIRAOS - $25 for AO & $24M for LGS Subtract $10M for simpler system  $39MSubtract $10M for simpler system  $39M Estimation approach 2: Bottoms-up cost estimateEstimation approach 2: Bottoms-up cost estimate Estimation methods agree

7 NGAO Project: Instrument Budget Cost Estimate = $20M  $4M for 1 st three instrumentsCost Estimate = $20M  $4M for 1 st three instruments InstrumentROM Cost Anchor Near-IR Imager $3M G-S NIR imager ~ $3.5M + 1 vs 4 H2-RG Visible Imager $3M LRIS-R upgrade ~ $1.5M; camera/filters $1M; SW $0.5M Deployable NIR IFU $14M TMT IRMOS ~$42M for 10 IFU + AO; ~$1.6M/IFU for 6 Near-IR IFU $7M OSIRIS ~$5.5M + new detector Visible IFU $4.5M OSIRIS without full cryo, 4x4K deep depletion CCD, slicer Thermal NIR Imager $3M Similar to NIR, smaller but more expensive detector

8 System Design: Objectives Establish design approach that meets the scientific & user requirementsEstablish design approach that meets the scientific & user requirements Establish discipline integrated engineering plan for the proposed designEstablish discipline integrated engineering plan for the proposed design Understand technical risks, trade-offs, performance estimates, cost to completionUnderstand technical risks, trade-offs, performance estimates, cost to completion Key deliverablesKey deliverables Systems Requirements DocumentSystems Requirements Document System Design ManualSystem Design Manual Systems Engineering Management PlanSystems Engineering Management Plan Systems Design ReportSystems Design Report

9 System Design: Project Schedule Plan based on delivery of 4 key documents Plan includes schedule & person-hours

10 System Design: Project Schedule System requirements need science team effort Budget includes 3 graduate students & 1 postdocBudget includes 3 graduate students & 1 postdoc

11 System Design: Project Schedule System design will utilize expertise & resources at CIT, UC & WMKO

12 System Design: Project Schedule System Engineering Management Plan

13 SD: Risk Assessment & Management Detailed risk assessment spreadsheet producedDetailed risk assessment spreadsheet produced ~40 items identified during initial point design development~40 items identified during initial point design development Severity & probability of each item indicated along with risk mitigation planSeverity & probability of each item indicated along with risk mitigation plan During system design each risk area will be further addressed as either part of the planned trade studies &/or as part of risk assessmentDuring system design each risk area will be further addressed as either part of the planned trade studies &/or as part of risk assessment Risk management process includes balancing scientific & technical performance, cost & scheduleRisk management process includes balancing scientific & technical performance, cost & schedule

14 System Design: Budget Cost Estimate = $980k Basis:Basis: hrs or 6.4 FTE eng/scientist * $120k/yr = $770k12400 hrs or 6.4 FTE eng/scientist * $120k/yr = $770k 5500 hrs for 3 grad students + postdoc = $150k5500 hrs for 3 grad students + postdoc = $150k $40k for travel + $20k for procurements$40k for travel + $20k for procurements Only 3% of total NGAO budget  system design phase budget may be lowOnly 3% of total NGAO budget  system design phase budget may be low Believe we have properly identified path forward & have a clear idea of how to proceedBelieve we have properly identified path forward & have a clear idea of how to proceed A more detailed estimate will be prepared as individuals identified & next level of detail added to planA more detailed estimate will be prepared as individuals identified & next level of detail added to plan

15 Management Status Observatory Directors plan to define the NGAO management structureObservatory Directors plan to define the NGAO management structure More detailed NGAO system design phase planning awaits management structure resolutionMore detailed NGAO system design phase planning awaits management structure resolution NGAO ready to become a real projectNGAO ready to become a real project

16 NGAO Project: Next Steps NGAO is ready to become a real project: Ready to begin system design phaseReady to begin system design phase The project needs the following key personnel:The project needs the following key personnel: Principal InvestigatorPrincipal Investigator Project Scientist + Science TeamProject Scientist + Science Team Project ManagerProject Manager Systems EngineerSystems Engineer NGAO Project Scientist & science team lead development & iteration of science requirementsNGAO Project Scientist & science team lead development & iteration of science requirements Volunteer model unsustainableVolunteer model unsustainable Need to take advantage of expertise & resources at CIT, UC & WMKO in system designNeed to take advantage of expertise & resources at CIT, UC & WMKO in system design Form NGAO Science Advisory Committee to provide high level science guidanceForm NGAO Science Advisory Committee to provide high level science guidance