DYNAMICS OF POLITICAL TRANSFORMATION

TYPES OF POLITICAL REGIME Democracy –Oligarchic –Co-optative –Liberal (elections with citizen rights) –Illiberal (elections w/o citizen rights) Authoritarianism –Traditional (“man on horseback”) –One-party rule –Bureaucratic (B-A regimes) –Revolutionary

CHANGE OVER TIME Oligarchic Rule and Top-down Reform (1880s-1920s) –Military strongmen –“Oligarchic democracy” –Co-optative democracy Populism and Dictatorship (1930s-1970s) –Co-optative democracy –Populist alliances/corporatist states –Women and politics –A democratic surge [1940s-70s] –Bureaucratic-authoritarian regimes

CHANGE OVER TIME [cont.] The Revolutionary Path (1950s-1980s) –“plantation societies” –Cuba, Nicaragua—and others? A Renewal of Democracies (1980s-present) –“unsolvable problems” –pressure from below –ending of Cold War –absence of ideology Rise of the “new left”? (1998-present) –Politics of protest/use of ballot box –Chávez v. Lula –prospects?

SOCIAL STRUCTURE Upper Class: –Urban (industrialists, bankers) –Rural (landowners) Middle Class: –Urban (merchants, lawyers, etc.) –Rural (small farmers) Popular/Lower Class: –Urban (workers) –Rural (peasants, campesinos) National Institutions: –State (including military) –Church External Sector: –Economic (investors, merchants) –Political (foreign governments)

KEY QUESTIONS What social groups are present? Or missing? What kinds of coalitions are in play? On what basis? What are the lines of social conflict? Vertical or horizontal? Social class or race/ethnicity? Who has political power? How inclusive is the system? Who is denied access?

COMPARING CASES (i) Mexico: Revolution of dominant-party system Central America and Caribbean: plantation society, U.S. influence, dictatorship and protest Cuba: plantation society, socialist revolution, resistance to United States Question A: Compare Mexican and Cuban revolutions Question B: Trace colonial legacies in Mexico and Cuba Question C: Why not more revolution ferment in CA + Caribbean? Given strong resemblance to Cuba?

COMPARING CASES (ii) Argentina –No peasantry (!) –Alliance: landowners + foreigners + state = oligarchic democracy (1880s-1916), co-optative democracy ( ) –Working class + industrialists = multi-class populist coalition, Peronist regime (1930s-1950s) –Class conflict, repression and bureaucratic-authoritarian regime (1960s-1980s) –Resumption of democracy (1983-present)

COMPARING CASES (iii) Chile –Peasantry (plus rural proletariat) –Upper class: agriculture + finance/industry + mining, allied with foreign investors (1890s-1950s) –Radical politics and horizontal class alliances: workers + peasants vs. landed + industry (1930s-60s) –Salvador Allende government ( ) –Volatility in middle-class support (1960s-70s) –Bureaucratic-authoritarian regime ( ) –Restoration of democracy 1990