Understanding Magnetic Eruptions on the Sun and their Interplanetary Consequences A Solar and Heliospheric Research grant funded by the DoD MURI program.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Heliospheric Computations Dusan Odstrcil University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/Space Environment Center Solar MURI Team Meeting, Berkeley CA, December.

Advertisements

The Relationship Between CMEs and Post-eruption Arcades Peter T. Gallagher, Chia-Hsien Lin, Claire Raftery, Ryan O. Milligan.

Estimating the magnetic energy in solar magnetic configurations Stéphane Régnier Reconnection seminar on Thursday 15 December 2005.

Energy and Helicity Budget of Four Solar Flares and Associated Magnetic Clouds. Maria D. Kazachenko, Richard C. Canfield, Dana Longcope, Jiong Qiu Montana.

CME/Flare Mechanisms Solar “minimum” event this January For use to VSE must be able to predict CME/flare Spiro K. Antiochos Naval Research Laboratory.

Magnetic Reconnection Across the HCS Mark Moldwin UM and Megan Cartwright UC-Berkeley Isradynamics April 2010 With thanks to Mark Linton at NRL Linton.

Strength of Coronal Mass Ejection- driven Shocks Near the Sun and Its Importance in Predicting Solar Energetic Particle Events Chenglong Shen 1, Yuming.

STEREO AND SPACE WEATHER Variable conditions in space that can have adverse effects on human life and society Space Weather: Variable conditions in space.

What can helicity redistribution in solar eruptions tell us about reconnection in these events? by Brian Welsch, JSPS Fellow (Short-Term ), Space Sciences.

ICME properties and their Solar cycle dependence Yan Li and Janet Luhmann UC Berkeley.

Chip Manchester 1, Fang Fang 1, Bart van der Holst 1, Bill Abbett 2 (1)University of Michigan (2)University of California Berkeley Study of Flux Emergence:

Simulations of Emerging Magnetic Flux in Active Regions W. P. Abbett Space Sciences Laboratory University of California, Berkeley.

Heliospheric MHD Modeling of the May 12, 1997 Event MURI Meeting, UCB/SSL, Berkeley, CA, March 1-3, 2004 Dusan Odstrcil University of Colorado/CIRES &

A General Cone Model Approach to Heliospheric CMEs and SEP Modeling Magnetogram-based quiet corona and solar wind model The SEPs are modeled as a passive.

M3 Session AIA/HMI Science Meeting D-1 : M3-Magnetic Field Data Products Data Product Development Session Chairs: R. Larsen/Y. Liu Status: [draft]

MSU Team: R. C. Canfield, D. W. Longcope, P. C. H. Martens, S. Régnier Evolution on the photosphere: magnetic and velocity fields 3D coronal magnetic fields.

Coupled Models for the Emergence of Magnetic Flux into the Solar Corona W. P. Abbett UC Berkeley SSL G. H. Fisher, Y. Fan, S. A. Ledvina, Y. Li, and D.

Synoptic maps and applications Yan Li Space Sciences Laboratory University of California, Berkeley, CA HMI team meeting, Jan 27, 2005, Stanford.

Modeling Active Region Magnetic Fields on the Sun W.P. Abbett Space Sciences Laboratory University of California, Berkeley.

Tucson MURI SEP Workshop March 2003 Janet Luhmann and the Solar CISM Modeling Team Solar and Interplanetary Modeling.

Incorporating Vector Magnetic Field Measurements into MHD models of the Solar Atmosphere W.P. Abbett Space Sciences Laboratory, UC Berkeley and B.T. Welsch,

Understanding Magnetic Eruptions on the Sun and their Interplanetary Consequences A Solar and Heliospheric Research grant funded by the DoD MURI program.

Prediction of Central Axis Direction of Magnetic Clouds Xuepu Zhao and Yang Liu Stanford University The West Pacific Geophysics Meeting, Beijing, China.

Discussion Summary: Group B –Solar Active Regions And Their Production of Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections Discussion Leaders: George Fisher Hugh Hudson.

Center for Space Environment Modeling Ward Manchester University of Michigan Yuhong Fan High Altitude Observatory SHINE July.

Coronal Mass Ejections: Models and Their Observational Basis (P.F. Chen Living Rev. Solar Phys.) 张英智中国科学院空间科学与应用研究中心空间天气学国家重点实验室.

The May 1,1998 and May 12, 1997 MURI events George H. Fisher UC Berkeley.

Understanding Magnetic Eruptions on the Sun and their Interplanetary Consequences A Solar and Heliospheric Research grant funded by the DoD MURI program.

Understanding Magnetic Eruptions on the Sun and their Interplanetary Consequences A Solar and Heliospheric Research grant funded by the DoD MURI program.

When will disruptive CMEs impact Earth? Coronagraph observations alone aren’t enough to make the forecast for the most geoeffective halo CMEs. In 2002,

February 26, 2007 KIPAC Workshop on Magnetism Modeling/Inferring Coronal And Heliospheric Field From Photospheric Magnetic Field Yang Liu – Stanford University.

DOPPLER DOPPLER A Space Weather Doppler Imager Mission Concept Exploration Science Objectives What are the most relevant observational signatures of flare,

Merging of coronal and heliospheric numerical two-dimensional MHD models D. Odstrcil, et al., J. Geophys. Res., 107, 年 10 月 14 日太陽雑誌会 ( 速報.

Identifying Interplanetary Shock Parameters in Heliospheric MHD Simulation Results S. A. Ledvina 1, D. Odstrcil 2 and J. G. Luhmann 1 1.Space Sciences.

Space Weather Forecast With HMI Magnetograms: Proposed data products Yang Liu, J. T. Hoeksema, and HMI Team.

The Effect of Sub-surface Fields on the Dynamic Evolution of a Model Corona Goals :  To predict the onset of a CME based upon reliable measurements of.

Photospheric Sources of Very Fast (>1100km/s) Coronal Mass Ejections Recent studies show that only very fast CMEs (> 1100 km/s) are capable of producing.

Coronal and Heliospheric Modeling of the May 12, 1997 MURI Event MURI Project Review, NASA/GSFC, MD, August 5-6, 2003 Dusan Odstrcil University of Colorado/CIRES.

The “cone model” was originally developed by Zhao et al. ~10 (?) years ago in order to interpret the times of arrival of ICME ejecta following SOHO LASCO.

UCB MURI Team Introduction An overview of ongoing work to understand a well observed, eruptive active region, along with closely related studies…..

2002 May 1MURI VMG mini-workshop1` Solar MURI Vector Magnetogram Mini-Workshop Using Vector Magnetograms in Theoretical Models: Plan of Action.

MHD Modeling of the Large Scale Solar Corona & Progress Toward Coupling with the Heliospheric Model.

Solar Source and Magnetic Cloud Yang Liu – Stanford University

Luhmann1 An NSF Science and Technology Center led by Boston University, involving solar partners at SAIC, U of Colorado, BU, HAO, Stanford, NRL, AFRL,

The May 1997 and May 1998 MURI events George H. Fisher UC Berkeley.

New Coupled Models of Emerging Magnetic Flux in Active Regions W. P. Abbett, S. A. Ledvina, and G.H. Fisher.

Thomas Zurbuchen University of Michigan The Structure and Sources of the Solar Wind during the Solar Cycle.

Living in a Star Sarah Gibson High Altitude Observatory / NCAR.

1Yang Liu/Magnetic FieldHMI Science – 1 May 2003 Magnetic Field Goals – magnetic field & eruptive events Yang Liu Stanford University.

Outline of WG 2 Sessions: Interplanetary Phenomena Working Group Leaders: Ian Richardson and Ilia Roussev.

Solar Drivers of Space Weather Steven Hill NOAA/SEC June 14, 2007 Research Experience for Undergraduates.

New STEREO/SECCHI Processing for Heliospheric Transients David F. Webb ISR, Boston College, MA, USA New England Space Science Consortium.

1 Introduction: Onset of solar flares and coronal mass ejections Yokoyama, T. Dept. Earth & Planetary Science, University of Tokyo Isobe, H. Univ. Tokyo.

1 University of California, San Diego, U.S.A., 2 NASA - Goddard Space Flight Center, U.S.A., 3 George Mason University, U.S.A., 4 Naval Research Laboratory,

CSI 769 Fall 2009 Jie Zhang Solar and Heliospheric Physics.

Synoptic Network Workshop (HAO/NCAR, April 2013) Space Weather and Synoptic Observations V J Pizzo – NOAA/SWPC.

A Numerical Study of the Breakout Model for Coronal Mass Ejection Initiation P. MacNeice, S.K. Antiochos, A. Phillips, D.S. Spicer, C.R. DeVore, and K.

Heliospheric Simulations of the SHINE Campaign Events SHINE Workshop, Big Sky, MT, June 27 – July 2, 2004 Dusan Odstrcil 1,2 1 University of Colorado/CIRES,

1 Test Particle Simulations of Solar Energetic Particle Propagation for Space Weather Mike Marsh, S. Dalla, J. Kelly & T. Laitinen University of Central.

30 April 2009 Space Weather Workshop 2009 The Challenge of Predicting the Ionosphere: Recent results from CISM. W. Jeffrey Hughes Center for Integrated.

Driving 3D-MHD codes Using the UCSD Tomography

Unprecedented NASA solar data on precursors piece together part of the story on solar flare evolution The 2017 total solar eclipse provided an opportunity.

Y. C.-M. Liu, M. Opher, O. Cohen P.C.Liewer and T.I.Gombosi

ST23-D2-PM2-P-013 The UCSD Kinematic Global Solar Wind Boundary for use in ENLIL 3D-MHD Forecasting Bernard JACKSON1#+, Hsiu-Shan YU1, Paul HICK1, Andrew.

Introduction to Space Weather Interplanetary Transients

D. Odstrcil1,2, V.J. Pizzo2, C.N. Arge3, B.V.Jackson4, P.P. Hick4

From the Convection Zone to the Heliosphere

Corona Mass Ejection (CME) Solar Energetic Particle Events

Solar and Heliospheric Physics

Understanding the Structure and Morphology of Coronal Mass Ejections by Integrating Observations and Modeling Scene Setting Talks: Miho Janvier (IAS) &

Presentation transcript:

Understanding Magnetic Eruptions on the Sun and their Interplanetary Consequences A Solar and Heliospheric Research grant funded by the DoD MURI program George H. Fisher, PI Space Sciences Laboratory University of California, Berkeley

Goal Develop a state-of-the-art, observationally tested 3-D numerical modeling system for predicting magnetic eruptions on the Sun and the propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). Develop a state-of-the-art, observationally tested 3-D numerical modeling system for predicting magnetic eruptions on the Sun and the propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs).

Motivation The Sun drives the magnetic eruptions that initiate violent space weather events. The mechanisms that trigger and drive these eruptions are the least understood aspects of space weather. A better physical understanding of how magnetic eruptions occur on the Sun and how the disturbances propagate through the Heliosphere will surely lead to more accurate and longer range forecasts.

Approach Perform in-depth, coordinated space and ground based observations of magnetic eruptions and CME propagation Perform in-depth, coordinated space and ground based observations of magnetic eruptions and CME propagation Understand the physics of how magnetic eruptions are triggered and powered Understand the physics of how magnetic eruptions are triggered and powered Develop and test numerical models for the propagation of CMEs and the acceleration of Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) Develop and test numerical models for the propagation of CMEs and the acceleration of Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) Couple together the observationally tested models of the Sun and Heliosphere Couple together the observationally tested models of the Sun and Heliosphere

Institutions of Solar Multidisciplinary University Research Initiative Team UC Berkeley UC Berkeley Big Bear Solar Observatory (NJIT) Big Bear Solar Observatory (NJIT) Drexel University Drexel University Montana State University Montana State University Stanford University Stanford University UC San Diego UC San Diego University of Colorado University of Colorado University of Hawaii University of Hawaii University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire

Overview of Solar MURI 1.Active Region Emergence: Fisher & Abbett (UCB), LaBonte & Mickey (UH), Canfield (MSU), Liu (Stanford), Gallagher, Wang & Goode (BBSO) 2.Effects of Large Scale Field and Solar Cycle Evolution: Hoeksema, Scherrer, & Zhao (Stanford), Ledvina & Luhmann (UCB), Martens (MSU), Goode, Wang & Gallagher (BBSO) 3.Inner Corona: Forbes (UNH), MacNeice (Drexel), Abbett, Ledvina, Luhmann & Fisher (UCB), Kuhn & H. Lin (UH), Canfield & Longcope (MSU), Hoeksema, Scherrer & Zhao (Stanford) 4.Outer Corona, Solar Wind, SEPs: Odstrcil (CU), Jackson & Hick (UCSD), MacNeice (Drexel), Luhmann & R. Lin (UCB), Lee (UNH) 5.Geoeffects: Luhmann & R. Lin (UCB), Odstrcil (CU), Hoeksema & Zhao (Stanford)

New technology to measure magnetic fields in the corona Infra-red lines formed in solar corona can be used to measure magnetic fields. (H. Lin, J. Kuhn, UH)

Eruptive Flare of Aug. 5, 1999 (BBSO) Movie of Limb Observations in H  of a classic 2- ribbon flare, taken by Johns-Krull and Fisher (UCB)

Important Ingredients in the Genesis of Magnetic Eruptions Flux emergence Flux emergence Twist (helicity) Twist (helicity) Topology changes Topology changes

Flux Emergence in an Active Region Coupling between the ANMHD code describing the solar interior and ZEUS3D code for modeling the corona above an active region.

Sigmoids: The Role of Twisted Fields in Magnetic Eruptions Sigmoidal structures in the corona seem to be a precursor to magnetic eruptions

Sigmoidal Field Lines from a Twisted Emerging Active Region Coronal field lines computed with the ZEUS3D MHD code, driven at the photospheric boundary by flux emergence computed with the ANMHD code. The S- shaped field lines derive from a modestly twisted flux tube rising through the solar interior.

Changing Field Line Topology: A storm Precursor? Orientation of coronal arcade agrees with that of flux rope model fitted to WIND (ICME) observations Orientation of coronal arcade agrees with that of flux rope model fitted to WIND (ICME) observations

Two different ideas about how topology changes drive magnetic eruptions: Tether cutting Tether cutting Breakout Breakout

Simulations of Breakout Model Movie: 2 ½ d MHD simulations using AMR (MacNeice & Antiochos)

3d ICME propagation in Heliosphere of July event Movie showing Reconstructed density in Heliosphere from IPS observations by Jackson & Hick (UCSD)

Simulations of ICME propagation MHD simulations of solar disturbances propagating into the Heliosphere can be followed from tens of solar radii out to 1 AU. Shown here is a depiction of a modeled disturbance at 1 AU (Odstrcil, CU)

Conclusions The quality and quantity of Solar and Heliospheric observations now available, in conjunction with rapid increases in computing power make this the right time to develop a coupled Solar and Heliospheric model. We expect to make great progress toward our goal over the next 5 years.