Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs Howard J. Singer NOAA Space Environment Center NSF Workshop on Small Satellite Missions for Space Weather and Atmospheric Research George Mason University, Arlington, VA May 17, 2007

Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs2 Outline  Space Weather Satellite Observing Capabilities in Operations  Space Weather Observing Needs  NOAA’s Observing System Architecture  Conclusions Acknowledgments: Baker, Doggett, Murtagh, O’Connor, Onsager, Tayler, Viereck

Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs3 NOAA POES NOAA GOES NASA ACE ESA/NASA SOHO L1 Monitor, Measure and Specify: Data for Today’s Space Weather ACE (NASA) –Solar wind speed, density, temperature and energetic particles –Vector Magnetic field SOHO (ESA/NASA) –Solar EUV Images –Solar Corona (CMEs) GOES (NOAA) –Energetic Particles –Magnetic Field –Solar X-ray Flux –Solar EUV Flux –Solar X-Ray Images POES (NOAA) –High Energy Particles –Total Energy Deposition –Solar UV Flux Ground Sites –Magnetometers (NOAA/USGS) –Thule Riometer and Neutron monitor (USAF) –SOON Sites (USAF) –RSTN (USAF) –Telescopes and Magnetographs –Ionosondes (AF, ISES, …) –GPS (CORS)

Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs4 Utilizing Non-NOAA Observations and Data By continued awareness of, and involvement in research programs, SEC can encourage and work together with non-NOAA satellite programs to provide data for operational use. –ACE: Through an interagency partnership, NASA modified the ACE spacecraft to provide continuous real-time data – IMAGE: Through an interagency partnership, NASA modified the IMAGE spacecraft to provide continuous real-time data. – Living With A Star: Through involvement on NASA definition panels, SEC has encouraged NASA to define satellite programs that include utility to space weather forecasting and specification (Solar Dynamics Observatory, RBSP, …) – STEREO: Through interagency planning, NOAA is obtaining real-time data from a satellite beacon that is being used by operations for forecasts and warnings of impending geomagnetic storms.

Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs5 Uses of Space Weather Data  Indicators of State of the System  Input to Drive Models  Data Assimilation  Validate Model Output  Instrument Calibration/Validation  Research Estimated Planetary K index Based on Ground Magnetometers Magnetospheric Specification Model Input parameters: Kp, Dst, Vpc, PC pattern, equatorward boundary auroral precipitation, solar wind velocity and density, IMF, DMSP precip flux, sum Kp

Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs6 CISM: Huang et al. Uses of Space Weather Data: Magnetometer Data Needed for Space Weather Model Validation The geosynchronous magnetic field is used to validate models and eventually may be assimilated into models. It will be vital for models run in operations. U. Of Michigan (Gombosi et al.) U. Mich. Gombosi et al. UNH: Raeder et al. Multiple groups of MHD modelers rely on the GOES magnetic field data for validating their models.

Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs7 Major Space Weather Customer Needs ACommunication outage probability  Solar energetic particle probability  Flare probability AGround dB/dt probability AHuman radiation exposure probability ASatellite radiation exposure probability AIonospheric Total Electron Content probability

Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs8 NOAA Space Environment Center Highest Priority Operational Needs  Solar energetic particle event forecasts, including start time, end time, peak flux, time of peak flux, spectra, fluence, and probability of occurrence  Solar wind data from L1  Solar coronagraph data  Energetic electron flux prediction for International Space Station  Regional geomagnetic activity nowcasts and forecasts  Ionospheric maps of TEC and scintillation (real-time and future)  Geomagnetic indices (e.g., Ap, Kp, Dst) and probability forecasts  Solar particle degradation of polar HF radio propagation  Background solar wind prediction 2006; not priority ordered

Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs9 NOAA Space Environment Center High Priority Operational Needs  Geomagnetic activity predictions (1-7 days) based on CME observations, coronal hole observations, solar magnetic observations, and ACE/EPAM observations  Visualization of disturbances in interplanetary space (e.g. view from above the ecliptic tracking an ICME)  Geomagnetic storm end-time forecast  Real-time estimates of geomagnetic indices  Real-time quality diagnostics (verification) of all warning/watch/forecast products  Routine statistical and/or numerical guidance for all forecast quantities (e.g., climatological forecasts of flares, geomagnetic indices and probabilities, and F10.7—similar to NWS Model Output Statistics)  Improved image analysis capability (e.g., for GOES-13 SXI, STEREO, SDO)  Short-term (days) F10.7 forecasts  Short-term (days) X-ray flare forecasts  Magnetopause crossing forecasts based on L1 data  EUV index 2006; not priority ordered

Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs10 Customer Growth: Demand New Products  Increasing customer needs for space weather information drove several new products  The demand for space weather products is growing even as we approach solar minimum  The NOAA Space Environment Center website is serving more than 250,000 unique customers per month from 150 countries…in solar minimum!

Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs11 Customer Uses Economic Impacts of Space Weather The advent of new long range aircraft such as the A /600, B ER and B LR Next 6 Years: Airlines operating China-US routes go from 4 to 9 Number of weekly flights from 54 to 249 Next 12 Years: 1.8 million polar route passengers by 2019 Airlines and Space Weather Airborne Survey Data Collection: $50,000 per day Marine Seismic Data Collection: $80,000- $200,000 per day Offshore Oil Rig Operation: $300,000- $1,000,000 per day GPS Global Production Value—expected growth: $13 billion $21.5 billion $757 billion Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI) – Mar 2005 Global Positioning System Space Radiation Hazards and the Vision for Space Exploration

Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs12 Observation Requirements Process - Past Agency Level System Segment ProcessCharacteristics Limited NOAA-wide requirements collection Requirements are system-, not agency-, based One Level of Trade Studies No formal translation of requirements to product processing, distribution, archive and assimilation NWS OTHERS Trade Studies Space C3 LAUNCH GOES NWS OTHERS POES Space Trade Studies Trade Studie s Trade Studie s LAUNCH C3

Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs13 Observation Requirements Process - NewConsolidatedObservationRequirements Federal Agencies Other Federal Agencies USDA EPA NASA DHS DoD Ecosystems Climate Weather and Water Commerce and Transportation DOC/NOAA Interagency Requirements Collection Process External Requirements Collection Process Research and Academic Media and Commercial Meteorological Centers International Partners SPACE Trade Studies OCEANLANDAIR Trade Studies System F System J System H System E System N System L Federal Program/System Development Phase Federal Program/System Development Phase Program/System Deployment and Operations Phase System G System D System C Data Collection Data Distribution Product Generation User Assimilation Archive ? Platform Coverage Sensor Suite ? Platform Coverage Sensor Suite ? Platform Coverage Sensor Suite ? Platform Coverage Sensor Suite ? Platform Location Coverage Sensor Suite International Systems Other Federal Systems Commercial Systems System I Commercial Program/System Commercial Program/System Development/Deployment and Operations Phase System K System M System B System A Architecture Development Architecture Development System O Trade Studies

Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs14 NOAA Observing System Architecture (NOSA) Consolidated Observation Requirements List (CORL) Example SpWx Priority 1 Observation Requirements

Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs15 Conclusions  Described current space weather observations used in operations  Identified space weather needs that might be addressed with small satellite missions  Illustrated space weather customer growth that demonstrates a need for new observations and products  Highligted the value of selecting an NSF small satellite project that supports both research and operations  Defined the NOAA observation process that is set up to encourage working with partners and selecting the best platform to meet an observational need

Space Weather Measurements: Capabilities and Needs16 Contact Information: Howard J. Singer, Chief Science and Technology Infusion Branch NOAA Space Environment Center 325 Broadway Boulder, CO