The 4th International Conference on Population Geographies The Chinese University of Hong Kong Topic ： Effects of Budgetary Policies on Population Migration ―A complexity approach Author & presenter : Min-shen Hsueh Author : Prof. Shih-Kung Lai Room :2A ELB-LT1 AM11:30-11:50 Date: July 11, 2007

Research structure 1. Introduction 2. Purpose & motivation of research 3. Methodology & design of research 4. Analysis of research 5. Result of research 6. Conclusions

Purpose & motivation of Research Does population migration tested after the model of power law with 1. Educational budget 2. Economic development budget 3. Community welfare budget 4. Community environmental protection budget Could find or enforce agglomeration and decentralization of population ？

Issues of Research 1. Does public policy used will be affected on the self-organization of population migration ？ 2. Does the phenomenon of power law on population migration was affected by public policies ？ 3. Does the independent character of power law be affected by human activity ？

complexity theory A new approach to science that studies how relationships between parts give rise to the collective behaviors of a system and how the elements interacts and forms relationships with its environment. 1.Emergence 2.Nonlinearity 3.Interacting agents 4.Increasing returns 5.Self-organization(chaos, order, and complexity) 6.Power law

Power Law A power law is any polynomial relationship that exhibits the property of scale invariance. Power law with a particular scaling exponent is equivalent up to constant factors, its behavior is what produces the linear relationship when both logarithms are taken of both f(x) and x, and the straight-line on the log-log plot is often called the signature of a power law.

Power Law Scale as bigger or smaller was contrasted with its own numbers, but form linearity after double logarithm. (example as city) P r =P 1 *r -q, P r ： scale of person of the r rank city, r ： rank (means slope), r square and P 1 ： scale of person of the first rank city, q ： Zipf force (means r square and usually equal 1) agglomeration (usually take absolute value); r square means self- organization’s degree. Slope means agglomeration (usually take absolute value); r square means self- organization’s degree.

Slope as agglomerations or disseminations agglomeration; less steep, less agglomeration. More steep, more agglomeration; less steep, less agglomeration.

Affected of economic development budget-Taipei county

Affected of community protection budget-Xinzu county

Self-organization Self-organization is a process where the organization (constraint, redundancy) of a system spontaneously increases, i.e. without this increase being controlled by the environment or an encompassing or otherwise external system. 1.Activity of whole system ; 2.Many sub-systems in the whole system ； 3.Internal logic behavior of each sub-systems ； 4.Emergence of structure was not arise inherent among locations differences but from internal logic behavior of the system. 5. Example: Critical Mass (bicycle), herd behaviors, groupthink

Research methodology 1.Number of analysis of Regions ： 22counties/cities’s budget. 2.Number of analysis of Time ： 15time items’ budget.

Methodology & design of research Research of design-1 ․ Targets ： Education, Economic development, Community welfare, Community environmental protection budget & population of each county/city in Taiwan. ․ Data （ amount ） be counterweigh ： 1.four budgets be managed with counterweigh ； 2.total add the value of four budgets after counterweigh.

Research of design-2 1.Keeping order as big from small to the value of general average ； 2.22counties, and 15time series of budget with ordering rank array. （ rank as order of number of each item; size as distribution of 4 budgets ） 3.Double Logarithm to both of Rank and size, coefficient of agglomeration of population slope and R-square （ as evidence of power law ） were taken.

Analysis of research-1 1 、 affected of educational budget ： agglomeration （ 1 ） population agglomeration coefficient （ as slope ）： agglomeration strongly. ․ Regions ： it could affected the population agglomeration strongly. ․ Time ： be formed polarization on population （ 2 ） self organization coefficient (as R-square) ․ Region ： can not find high evidence of self organization effect. ․ Time ： could not find the relationships of self organization effect.

Analysis of research-2 2 、 affected of economic development budget ： agglomeration （ 1 ） population agglomeration coefficient （ as slope ）： agglomeration strongest among these four. ․ regions ： it could affected the population agglomeration strongest among these four. ․ Time ： could not find more agglomeration strongly. （ 2 ） self organization coefficient (as R-square) ․ regions ： could not find self organization effect. ․ Time ： also could not find self organization effect neither.

Analysis of research -3 3 、 affected of community welfare ： agglomeration （ 1 ） population agglomeration coefficient （ as slope ）： agglomeration strongest as economic development budget’s effect. ․ Regions ： could affected the population agglomeration strongest as economic development budget’s effect. agglomeration strongest too. ․ Time ： also find it affected the population agglomeration strongest too. （ 2 ） self organization coefficient (as R-square) ․ Regions ： no self organization effect. ․ Time ： it was show self organization effect stronger than others.

Analysis of research -4 4 、 affected of community protection budget: agglomeration （ 1 ） population agglomeration coefficient （ as slope ） agglomeration stronger a little. ․ Regions ： it could affected the population agglomeration stronger a little. agglomeration stronger. ․ Time ： it could not affect the population agglomeration stronger. （ 2 ） self organization coefficient (as R-square) ․ Regions ： could not find high self organization effect. ․ Time ： it has more self organization effect as community welfare’s effect.

Result -1 1.power law & self organization situations were working itself on the regions with time passing, they do not affect by man made ； they are not affected such as educational budget has upper than the limited, we can not find power law was stop working.

Result-2 2.Man made as budget could not stop the power law working, and self-organization situations of natural matters were doing itself automatically. 3.Budgetary policies such as educational budget may push population agglomerations move strongly, but just on contemporary.

conclusions Public policies were men made as limitation as educational budget, under the test of time series, which its power law （ population agglomeration ） and self-organization degree were affected lower and less than other three none limitation budgets effect.

1991 年 ―2005 年各區域及各年度（無預算分配）人口異動趨勢之 slope 及 R2 數值表（ slope 取絕對值 ― 以下同）

1991 年 ―2005 年台灣省各區域及時間預算分配人口異動趨 勢之 slope 及 R2 數值表

1991―2005 各年度預算分配人口異動趨勢之 slope 及 R2 數值表

Ending Thank you very much