Complex System of Systems (CSoS): Fitness Landscapes and Acquisition Incentives Barry Boehm, USC Symposium on Complex Systems Engineering January 11-12, 2007 © USC- CSSE

2 Outline  Role of Fitness Landscapes in Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) –S. Kauffman, At Home in the Universe, Oxford University Press, 1995  CSoS Acquisition Challenges –B. Boehm, “Some Future Trends and Implications for Systems and Software Engineering Processes”, Systems Engineering 9(1), 2006, pp  A Candidate Three-Agent Acquisition Fitness Landscape –D. Reifer and B. Boehm, “Providing Incentives for Spiral Development: An Award Fee Plan”, Defense Acquisition Review 13(1), 2006, pp

3 Role of Fitness Landscapes in CAS  Incentive structures for local behavior  Induce global behavior via adaptation to change Fitness Landscape UniformRandom Survival- Related Global Result GridlockChaosEdge of Chaos Acronym (Metaphor) OWHITS (Ostriches with Heads in the Sand) TRAW (Turkeys Running Around Wild) NOSUFAS (No One-Size- Uniformly-Fits-All Solutions CSoS Acquisition Example MIL-STD-1521B Waterfall, Fixed Price, Build-to-Spec Recursive Acquisition Reform, Total Systems Performance Responsibility Candidate for Discussion: 3-Agent Model

4 CSoS Acquisition Challenges CSoS Objective Candidate Solution ExampleChallenges Avoid Obsolescence Plan-Driven Rapid Development 4-Hour HouseInflexible Adapt to Rapid Change Agile Methods Extreme Programming Unscalable; Buggy Releases Assure Resilience Independent V&VFormal MethodsExpensive

5 Candidate Approach: 3-Agent Model Agent ObjectiveAgent Approach Fitness Landscape/ Incentive Criteria* Build Current Increment Rapid, Stable, Schedule-As- Independent Variable (SAIV), Build to Specs and Plans Meet Milestones/Exercise SAIV; Deliver on Time; Collaboration with Other Agents Assure Resilience Integrated, Independent Verification and Validation Priority-Weighted Identification of Risks and Concerns; Collaboration with Other Agents Prepare for Build of Next Increment Observe, Orient, Decide on Proof-Carrying Rebaselined Specs and Plans Risk/Opportunity Management; Rebaseline Proof Thoroughness; Collaboration with Other Agents * Evaluated by Independent Experts