Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Nathalie Voisin David Pierce Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering.

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Presentation transcript:

Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Nathalie Voisin David Pierce Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington September, 2004 Columbia River Basin Reservoir Storage Forecast for 2005 and an Overview of Experimental Energy Planning Tools

ColSim Reservoir Model VIC Hydrology Model Climate Forecast

Evaluation of 2004 Streamflow Forecast

Evaluation of Last Year’s ColSim Storage Forecast Obs.Sys Storage Sept 15, 2004

2005 Forecast

Numerical Nino3.4 Forecasts for Water Year 2005 Forecasted range for Jan. Nino3.4 anomaly is ~ 0.2 to 1.2 C

Historic Water Years vs January Nino 3.4 Anomalies

All Years from for which J. Nino3.4 >= 0.2 AND <=1.2

All Years from for which J. Nino3.4 >= 0.2 AND <=1.2 (Warm PDO)

2005 System Storage Climatology

All Years from for which J. Nino3.4 Anom. >= 0.2 AND <=1.2

All Years from for which J. Nino3.4 Anom. >= 0.2 AND <=1.2 (Warm PDO)

An Advance Look at Some New Experimental Forecasting Products for the Power Industry

Monthly System-Wide Energy Production Simulated by ColSim (Million MW-hr)

Peak Hourly Load (Megawatts) PNW Daily Peak Load in January Regressed from a) Population Weighted TMAX b) Binary Weekday/Weekend Index

CA Daily Peak Load in August Regressed from a) Population Weighted TMAX b) Binary Weekday/Weekend Index Peak Hourly Load (Megawatts)

January Nino3.4 Anomaly vs PNW Avg NDJF Peak Electrical Load

Experimental Energy Forecasts for the Western US In partnership with researchers at Scripps Institute of Oceanography we are in the process of producing long- range forecasts of energy demand over the western US based on long-range climate forecasts. One of potential applications of such forecasts, in conjunction with hydropower forecasts from the PNW, is improved energy transfer agreements between the PNW and CA that take into account the interannual variability of power supply and demand in the West.