Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE) First Annual Conference November 18, 2004 Randolph W. Hall, University of Southern California

Center Vision Improve the nation’s homeland security through development and application of tools for assessing the risks and consequences of terrorism.

Security and Society

Center Competition 72 submitted white papers 72 submitted white papers 12 selected for full proposals 12 selected for full proposals 4 selected for site visits (USC, Harvard, Nebraska, Pennsylvania) 4 selected for site visits (USC, Harvard, Nebraska, Pennsylvania) $4 million/year funding from DHS $4 million/year funding from DHS 1 st University Center of Excellence 1 st University Center of Excellence CREATE universities are partnered with 2 nd and 3 rd centers of excellence CREATE universities are partnered with 2 nd and 3 rd centers of excellence

Center Activities Comprehensive research program, covering risks, consequences, response & economics Comprehensive research program, covering risks, consequences, response & economics Integrated tools within a GIS environment Integrated tools within a GIS environment Outreach to users and research community, through events, professional associations & exchange Outreach to users and research community, through events, professional associations & exchange Educational programs: professional masters, short-courses, PhD fellowships, assistantships Educational programs: professional masters, short-courses, PhD fellowships, assistantships

Interdisciplinary Engineering Social Sciences Information Technology

Service to the Nation

Framework and Products

Terrorist Enterprise Criminality Coercion Political Aims

Terrorist Attacks on US Interests 83, Beirut, Embassy+Barracks: 257 lives 83, Beirut, Embassy+Barracks: 257 lives 88, PanAm 103, Lockerbie: 270 lives 88, PanAm 103, Lockerbie: 270 lives 93, WT Center, NY: 6 lives 93, WT Center, NY: 6 lives 96, Saudi Arabia housing towers 96, Saudi Arabia housing towers 98, US embassies, Kenya, Tanzania 98, US embassies, Kenya, Tanzania 99, OK City Federal Building: 168 lives 99, OK City Federal Building: 168 lives OO, US Cole, Yemen: 17 lives OO, US Cole, Yemen: 17 lives 01, WTC, Pentagon: lives 01, WTC, Pentagon: lives Approximately 4000 lives over 20 years Approximately 4000 lives over 20 years

Comparisons 4000 fatalities = 4000 fatalities = –2 days of heart disease –2 weeks of accidents –5 weeks of automobile accidents –10 weeks of homicides

Why Worry? Economic loss: how people respond to the risk of terrorism Economic loss: how people respond to the risk of terrorism Impossible to predict what will happen in the future based on the past Impossible to predict what will happen in the future based on the past –Nuclear threat during cold war

Modeling Steps Risk Assessment Consequence Assessment Emergency Response Models Economic Assessment

Integration: Models and Applications Application Areas: Modeling Areas: PortManpadElectricity Risk Analysis Consequence Assessment Response Modeling Economic Analysis

Education and Outreach

Advisory Committees Scientific Advisory Committee – Ph.D. trained scientists and homeland security experts Scientific Advisory Committee – Ph.D. trained scientists and homeland security experts User Advisory Committee – public sector/non-profit users of center products User Advisory Committee – public sector/non-profit users of center products Industry Committee – research partners and collaborators from private industry Industry Committee – research partners and collaborators from private industry

Education Masters/Certificate: System Safety and Security – Available via Distance Education Masters/Certificate: System Safety and Security – Available via Distance Education –Decision Analysis –Risk Assessment –Management of Government Programs –Economics/Policy –Engineering Economics –Specialization (many choices) – M.S. –Elective – M.S.

Short Courses Aviation Safety and Security Program has 50 years of experience training aviation safety professionals and accident investigators Aviation Safety and Security Program has 50 years of experience training aviation safety professionals and accident investigators New programs in non-aviation threats + aviation security New programs in non-aviation threats + aviation security Taught through LAX facility Taught through LAX facility

Events Economics Workshop (August, 2004) Economics Workshop (August, 2004) Conference on Reducing the Risks and Consequences of Terrorism (November 18, 2004) Conference on Reducing the Risks and Consequences of Terrorism (November 18, 2004) Vulnerability Assessment Workshop (January, 2005) Vulnerability Assessment Workshop (January, 2005) 2 nd Economics Workshop (2005) 2 nd Economics Workshop (2005) Emergency Response Workshop (2005) Emergency Response Workshop (2005) Port Security Workshop Port Security Workshop

Website:

Some Statistics 15 active research projects 15 active research projects Nearly 50 students involved in center Nearly 50 students involved in center More than 50 professionals on advisory committees More than 50 professionals on advisory committees 50 presentations on our research 50 presentations on our research More than 20 company visits More than 20 company visits 3 completed research reports 3 completed research reports New degree and certificate programs New degree and certificate programs New aviation security courses New aviation security courses Extensive national media coverage Extensive national media coverage

Conclusions

Today’s Conference What risks do we face from terrorism? What risks do we face from terrorism? What are the potential future consequences? What are the potential future consequences? What tools are available for evaluating threats? What tools are available for evaluating threats? How should we best invest and prepare? How should we best invest and prepare?

Center Messages Evaluate and prioritize investments in counter-terrorism Evaluate and prioritize investments in counter-terrorism Each threat and counter-measure must be placed in a broad context, relative to opponent goals and objectives Each threat and counter-measure must be placed in a broad context, relative to opponent goals and objectives Investments must also be placed in the context of all risks faced by humans Investments must also be placed in the context of all risks faced by humans Counter-terrorism must be as robust as the terrorists themselves Counter-terrorism must be as robust as the terrorists themselves