Weather Support for the 2002 Olympic and Paralympic Games Dr. Tom Potter SLOC Weather Coordinator and NOAA Cooperative Institute for Regional Prediction. U. of Utah Department of Meteorology Presented by John Horel KSL

2002 Winter Games 2500 Athletes 78 Events at 10 Venues 1.5 Million Spectators 9000 Accredited Media + 4 K more 26,000 Volunteers Staff Budget $ 1.3 Billion Games Labeled “Outstanding” by Athletes,Spectators,TV Audience, and the Media. KSL

Wasatch Front KSL D. Judd

Downtown Salt Lake City KSL

Paralympics CIRP

Weather Effects on Olympic Activities Sport Competition Delays Transportation (Ground and Air) Spectator Safety & Comfort Medical Emergency Response Security Snowmaking & Snow Removal Engineering & Construction: Seats,tents,flags,displays,… Environmental Quality & Air Pollution Ceremonies with weather-critical shows before 50,000+ people in stadium

Potential Wx Concerns Westwide Avalanche Network Forecasts of Precipitation in the Mountains Forecasts for tiny sports venues at precise fixed times Heavy Snow Strong Winds Too Warm for Snowmaking Rain on Snow Low Visibility: Fog or Snow Lightning Avalanches Air Pollution

Actual Weather Nearly perfect for Winter Games: Colder & drier than normal, with no big snowstorms, strong wind gusts, or low visibilities Few weather delays/postponements - Mostly from winds - Only one postponement from snow - Potential wind/lightning impacts at all 4 Opening/Closing Ceremonies

What Was Provided Forecasts & Warnings : For 5 Outdoor Venues,the Salt Lake Area, and Roads Official Weather Conditions at Venues Historical Climate Data: Venues & Cities plus Climate Forecasts from CPC Consultant advice on applications: snowmaking,engineering & construction, transportation, security, ceremonies,...

Who Did the Job Unique Weather Team from public, private, academic and military sectors - NWS WFO: Area-wide & road corridor fcsts, plus led twice-daily conference calls - KSL : Detailed fcsts for sports venues -U: Pre-Game Planning, Sensors, MesoWest, Research, Fcst Tools, Hi-Res Analyses & Fcsts, Wx Aides -Hill AFB: Helicopter Support and TMOS -NWS Western Region SSD, NCEP, SLOC IS/Comm/Others, USFS Avalanche Center, FSL (FX-Net), UOPSC

Real-time Operations Weather Operations Center at NWS Office near SLC Airport (24/7) Coordinator/Aides at SLOC/MOC( ) Weather Forecasters at Outdoor Venues ( 0400 to 1800 on event days) Volunteer Weather Aides at Outdoor Venues: Official Obs (0600 to 1800) High-res MM5 and ADAS Runs, MesoWest DataBase at U of U (24/7) Aviation Weather from Hill AFB (24/7)

Weather Operations Center KSL

Weather Operations Center KSL

Media Operations Center KSL CIRP

KSL Weather Team KSL

Hill AFB CIRP

Ingredients for Success Planning Before the Games –Science IPEX February 2000 field program Local studies –Technology FX-Net MesoWest MM5/MM5-MOS

IPEX field program during February 2000 Research ongoing to improve the understanding, analysis, and prediction of precipitation and precipitation processes in complex terrain More information: BAMS. February 2002 J. Steenburgh IPEX- Intermountain Precipitation Experiment

FX NET PC-based weather display system from NOAA/FSL Provides access to NWS/AWIPS information at outdoor venues and Hill AFB Insures all forecasters on Olympic team have access to the same weather information KSL

MesoWest surface network 2600 stations & 70 networks in western US 250+ stations in northern Utah BAMS. February

Monitoring Weather MesoWest

Mesoscale modeling/(MOS)

Mesoscale Model Skill The mean absolute error (MAE) of temperature by geographic region for the period 23 Jan 2002 – 24 Mar 2002.

Ingredients for Success Operations During the Games –Clearly Defined Areas of Forecast Responsibility During the Games NWS: protection of life and property and coordination with federal and state agencies KSL: provide SLOC with detailed guidance for weather critical events * Forecasters Knew Local Mtn Weather * Each Component of Weather Team brought unique strengths * Twice Daily Conference Calls Aided in Accurate & Well-Coordinated Forecasts

Olympic region sites Outdoor Venues Soldier Hollow: Cross Country, Biathlon, Nordic Combined Snowbasin Downhill, Combined, Super-G Utah Olympic Park Bobsled, Luge, Skeleton, Ski Jumping, Nordic Combined Park City Alpine GS, Snowboard GS Snowboard Half Pipe Deer Valley Alpine Slalom, Aerials, Moguls Locations of Weather Stations

Venue Forecasts

Cross Country/Biathlon Soldier Hollow Cross Country/Biathlon CIRP

Aerial/Slalom/Moguls Deer Valley Aerial/Slalom/Moguls KSL

Snowboard/Grand Slalom Park City Snowboard/Grand Slalom KSL CIRP

Ski Jump/Bobsleigh/Luge Utah Olympic Park: Ski Jump/Bobsleigh/Luge CIRP

Downhill SnowBasin Downhill D. Judd KSL

Closing Ceremonies CIRP Ceremonies Begin 6-7 PM Calm Balloons and Fireworks 8:30-9:05 PM Calm Set-Up 4-5 PM Lightning Post Ceremony Cold Front 9:20 PM Gust to 21 mph 9:45 PM Gust to 41 mph

Forecast Results Overall, forecasts were excellent, according to customers. Superb data sets and wide range of models available to experienced forecasters who coordinated well. Had high resolution analyses/forecasts. MM5/MOS forecasts for venues were quite accurate. Detailed, precise forecasts for Opening/Closing Ceremonies were exceptionally good.

LEGACIES More observations and new forecast tools Better understanding of winter weather in complex terrain as a result of research & experience Will result in better forecasts in mountain regions well after the Olympics Model of multi-sector cooperation

Ongoing scientific issues QPF!!! –When, where, how much Highway surface modeling/guidance Air quality during cold pools/inversions For additional information: BAMS Feb 2002