Multi-Criteria Decision Aide (MCDA) at the Watershed Scale Watershed HealthLand-Use Change and Social Context Biophysical Land Use Society Community Economy Firms Households Economic Structure and Change Individuals

Decisions at the watershed scale are characterized by: Multiple goals  Multiple alternatives to meet goals  Multiple criteria for alternatives  Multiple metrics, scale, and time dimensions of criteria  Multiple decision-makers with...  Diverse preferences All within a decision environment where the only thing that is certain is: CHANGE. How can we structure such a decision-making process?

At the watershed scale, what is the decision to make? GOAL Examples: Quantitative growth oriented goalsQuantitative growth oriented goals Qualitative development oriented goalsQualitative development oriented goals Specific management or action plansSpecific management or action plans

What are the decision alternatives that could help reach that goal? Examples: Business as usualBusiness as usual Directed growth policies; technical fixesDirected growth policies; technical fixes Steady stateSteady state GOAL Alternative 1Alternative 2Alternative 3

How do we choose amongst alternatives? What criteria? Examples: Economic (C Ec ): Employment, income, tax baseEconomic (C Ec ): Employment, income, tax base Social (C Sc ): Income distribution, landscape characterSocial (C Sc ): Income distribution, landscape character Environmental (C Ev ): Impervious surface, IBIsEnvironmental (C Ev ): Impervious surface, IBIs GOAL Alternative 1Alternative 2Alternative 3 C Ec C Sc C Ev C Ec C Sc C Ev C Ec C Sc C Ev

How do we evaluate these criteria? Metrics: Quantitative, qualitative Degree of uncertainty Data availability Scale: Stream site, tax parcel, neighborhood, sub-catchment, township, catchment, county, state... Time: Stream flow, industry and household processes, land-use change, policy change, economic change, government change...

GOAL DM 1 DM 2 DM 3 A1A1 A2A2 A3A3 A1A1 A2A2 A3A3 A1A1 A2A2 A3A3 How do we arrive at a goal when multiple perspectives are involved? Examples: Equity weightsEquity weights Alliances and consensus buildingAlliances and consensus building Group process designGroup process design

How do we identify decision-makers’ preferences within and between each criterion?

Within each criterion: Maximize or minimizeMaximize or minimize Absolute or relative preferenceAbsolute or relative preference Difference 0 1 Score Absolute Difference 0 1 Score Relative Linear Non-linear

Within each criterion: Degree of indifference thresholdDegree of indifference threshold Difference 0 1 Score Indifference Threshold

Within each criterion: Degree of indifference thresholdDegree of indifference threshold Degree of preference thresholdDegree of preference threshold Difference 0 1 Score Preference Threshold

Within each criterion: Degree of indifference threshold, ANDDegree of indifference threshold, AND Degree of preference thresholdDegree of preference threshold 0 1 Score Indifference Threshold Preference Threshold

Between criteria: WeightsWeights GOAL Alternative 1Alternative 2Alternative 3 C Ec C Sc C Ev C Ec C Sc C Ev C Ec C Sc C Ev w 1 + w 2 + w 3 = 1

Outcomes of the MCDA decision process Performance of each alternative by multiple criteria 1 0 C1C1 C2C2 C3C3 C4C4 C5C5 C6C6 C7C7

Outcomes of the MCDA decision process Pairwise comparison of alternatives by multiple criteria Alt-1 Alt-2

Outcomes of the MCDA decision process Preference ordering of alternatives for each individual, and the group as a whole A3 A4 A2 A1 A5 Partial A3 A4 A2 A1 A5 Complete

Outcomes of the MCDA decision process Simultaneous comparison of criteria and alternatives (individual GAIA Plane) C Sc C Ev C Ec Alt-1Alt-3 Alt-2 pi

Outcomes of the MCDA decision process Simultaneous comparison of decision-makers and alternatives (group GAIA Plane) DM-2 DM-1 DM-3 Alt-1Alt-3 Alt-2 pi

Outcomes of the MCDA decision process Sensitivity analysis – walking weights and stability intervals C Sc C Ev C Ec Alt-1Alt-3 Alt-2 pi

Outcomes of the MCDA decision process Shared understanding Coalition and/or consensus building Concrete problem definition Visualization of points and strength of conflict Ample opportunities for revision AND Ranking of decision alternatives