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2 יום עיון רפתות גליל מערבי OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN

3 Soybean led recovery expected next year, but will remain well below levels of two years ago

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5 First decline since 95/96, decline is record large

6 Record yearly decline in world soybean production, assuming normal South American yields

7 Relatively small increase in South America production is expected. Would not take much of a crop problem before production is lower than the previous year

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9 US Soybeans Stock Deviation

10 US Soybeans Carry Out and Stock To Use Ratio

11 US stocks are declining to minimum levels. No signs of sufficient rationing yet. Supply tightness in the 08/09 season could become more severe if a large increase in area is not secured.

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13 Caution, La Nina could reduce yields for Southern Brazil

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15 La Nina could increase risk for adverse weather and lower yield

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18 CBOT Soybeans Futures Prices (nearby contract)

19 JUL08-NOV08 Futures Spread

20 Soybean Meal outlook

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24 Expect the meal/corn ratio to move to 2.5. Based on a corn price of $3.15-$4.75 per bushel, soybean meal would be $288-$424 per ton

25 Crush Margins

26 CBOT Soybean Meal Futures Prices

27 Soybean Oil Outlook

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30 CBOT Soybean Oil Futures Prices

31 Soy Complex

32 Corn Outlook

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36 Ethanol keeps shifting the price curve upwards. The price curve is likely higher than the line running through 06/07.

37 Soybeans – Corn Ratio

38 CBOT Corn Futures Prices

39 Thank you!

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