Effects of climate change on animal health and welfare in the UK Dr Helen Roberts (Global Animal Health, Defra – UK)

Defra response to Climate Change To ensure a focus is maintained on the relationship between health and welfare and environmental drivers, including the likely future impact of climate change on disease prevalence and epidemiology. To ensure a coherent science base, including horizon scanning, and facilitating knowledge exchange and action planning between and by stakeholders. To share knowledge, develop effective contingency plans and help stakeholders address these issues themselves.

Adaption response for AHW OIE General Session EU White Paper UK response and contingency planning has been a front-runner Adaptation and Mitigation have both been targeted for response on behalf of the UK Chief Veterinary Officer

OIE To be a focal point for exchange of information To assist Vet Authorities to develop foresight and decision making frameworks “One World One Health” To encourage OIE ref labs to investigate relationship between climate, environment and disease

CVO’s Statement on ACC Issue Important implications for agriculture, livestock management, animal and public health. Climate and resulting habitat and ecosystem changes will change the way we keep livestock, how we source feed and how we interact with wildlife. Our demand for food will increase, and there will be new opportunities for farmers, and not just threats. Physical changes to habitats and new farming methods may lead to a change in the type or number of animal diseases we encounter. Some diseases may be of very low prevalence, whereas others may become more significant. While each disease is different, we have used our procedures and practices for responding to disease threats in many real life situations before. We continuously review contingency plans to make sure they remain as effective as possible. We try to anticipate likely changes in disease threats so we can manage such risks proactively whilst encouraging livestock keepers to adapt and allow agriculture and food production to thrive. Defra continues to conduct continuous horizon scanning to assess disease threats.

What we are Doing Links with sustainable agriculture colleagues to prepare for a multi-disciplinary approach to using the UKCIP scenarios. To identify and prioritise evidence base needs, to build on research already done. To use the scenarios to augment our evidence in a targeted and intelligent way. To consider the case for redirecting some of our existing (and finite) research budget into this area. Disease profiles and a decision support tool to objectively rank disease risks have been developed to underpin risk assessments and decision making on prioritising resources against different threats. A horizon scanning team continually assesses disease threats to UK and publishes qualitative risk assessments on the Defra Website Disease profiles will be updated continually as science and on-the-ground realities change. There will also be a section specifically relating to climate change (ie how easy to mitigate and how important a role in greenhouse gas emissions and climate change). CVO’s Statement on ACC

ACC Measures and Impacts Type Potential adaptation measure Risks addressed by the measure Overall Impact Implications of adaptation measures - Outcomes in your area negative (-) neutral (0) positive (+) Unknown (?)* breed/speciesStock different livestock breeds with reduced skin sensitivity to reduce sunburn Sunburn in pigs ? Breeds may more susceptible to disease. Change in trade - i.e. Imports from different countries where the 'breeds' are available at a reasonable price but with a high risk disease status. business and contingency planning Monitor numbers of wild species Direct effects on wildlife and biodiversity from T o C, rainfall, flooding, drought (e.g. changes to phenology, range, abundance, behaviour) (+) better information on wildlife population size and distribution would help monitor risk and inform controls measures during an outbreak. infrastructure/ technology Provide additional mechanical ventilation in transporters to reduce heat stress Heat stress in livestock when transported due to higher summer T o C (o) infrastructure/ technology Improve insulation and ventilation in animal housing to avoid heat stress Heat stress in livestock due to higher summer T o C (o) managementReduce number of animals transported at any one time to reduce heat stress Heat stress in livestock when transported due to higher summer T o C (o) More journeys may put time pressures on hauliers which could cause reluctance to C&D vehicles between each load. managementAdopt control strategies from countries from where 'immigrating' pests originate Increased risk of Exotic pests and diseases introduction. (+) opportunity to learn from other countries who already have the climate and disease threats and put the necessary measures in place managementHousing livestock during flooding risk. Use of temporary fencing to keep livestock away from risk areas. Use of text warning systems Flood risks to livestock as a result of heavy rainfall (+) could be effective in reducing interation with wildlife

EXPERT OPINION

Our adaptation response Exotic notifiable diseases of animals Endemic “production” diseases UK and also EU level UKCIP projections (medium emissions) Direct and indirect effects of CC on disease incidence Input into OIE and DfID

Risk Framework Routes of introduction and spread Pathogen biology Disease reservoirs Vector biology Contact and movement of animals, including trade Environmental routes

How is a disease transmitted?

How much trade is there?

Where is disease?

Final Risk Score

Expert Opinion workshop Identify Climate Change parameters to apportion boundaries to the assessment. Consider what effect could these climate scenarios have on diseases. Determine the risk by multiplying likelihood of impact by magnitude of consequence and plot on a graph. Identify what characteristics of a disease could make it important to the UK. Generate a ranking which can be used to help prioritise disease prevention efforts. Apportion high impact, high priority factors to different diseases based on rank. Identify unknowns. Plan of action.

Predictions are EU-wide

General results Increases in vector borne diseases (variable) as direct effect on vector distribution Possible increases in production diseases due to indirect changes in livestock husbandry etc Flood risk as well as heat stress may have immediate impact Some fish diseases may be affected, as water quality may change Possible change in migration of wild birds Population movement and changing trade patterns

Final plan of action Bearing in mind the White Paper guidance for actions for Member States: Develop guidelines and surveillance mechanisms on the health impacts of climate change by Step up research in animal disease surveillance and control.

Cautionary note: African Swine Fever

Bluetongue Disease

Foot and Mouth Disease

Rift Valley Fever

Thank you