Montana’s Economic Recovery: Making Sense of Mixed Signals Patrick M. Barkey and Paul E. Polzin Bureau of Business and Economic Research The University.

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Presentation transcript:

Montana’s Economic Recovery: Making Sense of Mixed Signals Patrick M. Barkey and Paul E. Polzin Bureau of Business and Economic Research The University of Montana - Missoula

2010: Predictions and Surprises Inventory Correction Fuels U.S. Growth Spurt Consumer Spending Holds Back Growth Employment Growth Turns Positive, Barely Montana Income Tax Withholdings Swing to Growth Europe’s Weakest Economies Max Out Their Credit Cards Gulf Oil Spill is Worst in History Montana Income Growth Revised Sharply Downward

New Concerns For Montana Correction in Housing Still Not Finished U.S. Consumer Confidence Stuck in a Rut No More Stimulus to Bail Out State Government Downward Assessment of Global Economic Growth

Montana’s Recession Experience U.S. Montana Payroll Employment, Index, September 2008 = 100

Montana’s Recession Experience Nonfarm Labor Earnings, 2007Q4 = U.S. Montana North Dakota Nevada

The Outlook for U.S. Growth After spurt to begin the year, growth falls back Growth has been unbalanced High productivity gains have limited the need for new hiring Concern over Europe, unemployment, and sluggish consumer spending have downgraded forecasts

Half of Those Unemployed are Long-Term Jobless > 27 weeks weeks 5-14 weeks < 5 weeks

But Private Borrowing is in Reverse Commercial and Industrial Loans at all Commercial Banks (BUSLOANS) Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Billions of Dollars

Montana’s Economic Base Nonresident Travel Mining Manufacturing –Wood and Paper –Other Manufacturing Agriculture Federal Government (Incl. Military) 90% Weak Recovery Positioning for Growth Permanent Closures Recovering Back to Long-term Average Stimulus Current Status Construction Montana State Government No Rebound in Sight Significant Cuts Ahead

Labor Income and Basic Industries, Montana Mining, 14% Wood and Paper, 6% Ag. and Related, 8% Travel, 13% Selected Manufacturing, 16% Transportation, 13% Fed. Military, 9% Fed. Civilian, 21% Montana’s Energy Industries

Coal Mining NAICS Employment = 946 Number of firms = 7 Coal Mining Employment Montana’s Energy Industries

Coal Mining NAICS Employment = 946 Number of firms = 7 Montana’s Energy Industries

Coal Mining NAICS Employment = 946 Number of firms = 7 Wages and Salaries per Worker $72,250 State average = $33,800 Montana’s Energy Industries

Petroleum Refining NAICS Employment = 1,069 Number of firms = 4 Petroleum Refining Employment Montana’s Energy Industries

Petroleum Refining NAICS Employment = 1,069 Number of firms = 5 Montana’s Energy Industries

Wages and Salaries per Worker $95,800 State average = $33,800 Petroleum Refining NAICS Employment = 1,069 Number of firms = 4 Montana’s Energy Industries

Drilling Oil and Gas Wells NAICS Employment = 333 Number of firms = 49 Drilling Oil and Gas Wells Employment Montana’s Energy Industries

Drilling Oil and Gas Wells NAICS Employment = 333 Number of firms = 49 Montana’s Energy Industries

Wages and Salaries per Worker $64,800 State average = $33,800 Drilling Oil and Gas Wells NAICS Employment = 333 Number of firms = 49 Montana’s Energy Industries

Support Activities for Oil and Gas NAICS Employment = 1,256 Number of firms = 159 Support Activities for Oil and Gas Employment Montana’s Energy Industries

Support Activities for Oil and Gas NAICS Employment = 1,256 Number of firms = 159 Montana’s Energy Industries

Wages and Salaries per Worker $92,500 State average = $33,800 Support Activities for Oil and Gas NAICS Employment = 1,256 Number of firms = 159 Montana’s Energy Industries

Oil and Gas Pipeline Construction NAICS Employment = 428 Number of firms = 31 Oil and Gas Pipeline Construction Employment Montana’s Energy Industries

Wages and Salaries per Worker $54,700 State average = $33,800 Oil and Gas Pipeline Construction NAICS Employment = 428 Number of firms = 31 Montana’s Energy Industries

Pipeline Transportation NAICS Employment = 441 Number of firms = 41 Pipeline Transportation Employment Montana’s Energy Industries

Wages and Salaries per Worker $68,800 State average = $33,800 Pipeline Transportation NAICS Employment = 441 Number of firms = 41 Montana’s Energy Industries

Colstrip Steam Electrical Station 2009 Employment = 578 Number of firms = 1 Montana’s Energy Industries

Wages and Salaries per Worker $64,800 State average = $33,800 Colstrip Steam Electrical Station 2009 Employment = 578 Number of firms = 1 Montana’s Energy Industries

Rim Rock Wind Farm, Sunburst MT Construction – 2 Years 300 Workers / Year $110,000 / Year Operations 22 Workers $48,000 / Year Montana’s Energy Industries

Actual and Projected Change in Nonfarm Labor Income, Montana, Actual Projected Percent

Questions?