Class 5a: Population II Future predictions: Malthus vs. Boserup The demographic transition Urbanization and world cities (Delhi)

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Presentation transcript:

Class 5a: Population II Future predictions: Malthus vs. Boserup The demographic transition Urbanization and world cities (Delhi)

Future population Doubling time = 70 ÷ rate of natural increase

Future population Doubling time = 70 ÷ rate of natural increase

Future population: Thomas Malthus Essay on the Principle of Population (1798) Observing the Industrial Revolution Food is necessary for human existence "The passion between the sexes is necessary and constant"

Future population: Malthus Food production grows arithmetically, but population grows geometrically

Future population: Malthus Food production grows arithmetically, but population grows geometrically

Future population: Malthus Food production grows arithmetically, but population grows geometrically Therefore, the human population will self- regulate by means of famine Ecological view of humanity

Demographic transition Shift from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates

Demographic transition Stage 1: pre-industrial High birth rate; high, fluctuating death rate

Demographic transition Stage 2: industrial Birth rate stays high Death rate drops with better living conditions

Demographic transition Stage 3: urbanized Birth rate drops; death rate stays low Growth begins to taper off

Future population: Ester Boserup Conditions of Agricultural Growth (1965) Technological improvements keep food production ahead of population "Overpopulation" actually drives agricultural improvement Social scientists’ view of humanity

Future population Increasing emphasis on quality of life Reproductive health care Women’s rights and development

Urbanization Just under half world population But most growth is in cities Overcrowding, food security, health

Historically follows industrialization Industrial Revolution: Europe from 12% to 36% , North America from 16% to 40% Urbanization

, Third World from 17% to 37% Most rapid in history But without economic growth And without urban decentralization

Urbanization: megacities Population over 10 million Disproportionately large economic activity From 5 in 1970 to 26 in 2015 Strong income disparities Environmental and health problems Lack of infrastructure

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