The Future of Washington Forests and Forest Industries Stand Management Cooperative April 26, 2007 Larry Mason, Rural Technology Initiative

The Future of Washington’s Forests and Forest Industries Commissioned by the WA State Legislature 2005 Study Areas Include: 1)Timber Supply and Forest Structure Study 1 2)Competitive Position Study 2 3)Economic Contribution Study 3 4)Land Conversion Study 4 5)State Granted Return on Investment Study 5 PROGRESS REPORTS

Bolsinger, C. L., N. McKay, D. R. Gedney, and C. Alerich Washington's Public and Private Forests. Resource Bulletin PNW-RB-218, USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. * USDI Bureau of Indian Affairs Status of Forest Management Inventories and Planning. USDI, Bureau of Indian Affairs, Division of Forestry, Branch of Forest Resource Planning. Washington Unreserved Timberlands (thousands of acres) , ?? Less Roads, Buffers, Etc ~9400

North Coast South Coast South West North Puget Sound South Puget Sound Central Inland Empire Washington Timbersheds: Five Westside and Two Eastside

Westside Forest Types Management Intensities Harvest Implications Land Conversions

Western Washington Harvest Volumes YearOwnership Type – Volumes in Million Board Feet Native American Forest Industry Private Small StateNational Forest Total , , , ,666.9 Source: DNR Timber Harvest Report 2002

HistoricProjected Sources: DNR Timber Harvest Report 2002, FIA age-class data, UW/WFPA Management intensities Survey, Chambers 1980 DNR RPT 41.

Source: Gray et al PNW-RB-246 HistoricProjected

West Side Question: This or This?

Eastside Forest Types Forest health & climate change Fire/carbon/bioenergy Mill Closures

Eastern Washington Harvest Volumes YearOwnership Type – Volumes in Million Board Feet Native American Forest Industry Private Small StateNational Forest Total Source: DNR Timber Harvest Report 2002

Sources: DNR Timber Harvest Reports , FIA & CVS Inventory Data; Tribal, Industry, Small Private Forestland Managers HistoricProjected

Source: DNR, Oneil

Without treatment, dry fuels, drought, and hot summers mean catastrophic wildfire in eastern Washington

Source: NOAA, EPA, US Census, NIFC, RTI 2006 Forest Fires Total WA ~ 400,000 acres Total US > 9.8 million acres

This Or This East Side Question:

Source: TSS Consultants,

Source: WSU, WA DOE WA Biomass and Bioenergy Potential by Feed Stock Type

This? ORThis?

Harvest 6,000 Loggers in Washington Annual Payroll = $250 million Employment = 1.84 loggers/MMBF/Yr

Average contract logger is over 50 years of age 1995: 82% had health insurance but today: 53% Skilled workers are much harder to find than 10 years ago 13% make money; 48% break even; 40% lose money WCLA Survey Highlights – 98 Respondents ~ 900 MMBF/Yr

Washington Comparative Harvest Costs and Cost Multipliers with Regen Harvest Cost as the Baseline Harvest Type WCLA 2006DNR 2006 Cost/MBFCost MultCost/MBF Regen - Grd $ 691$ 671 Regen - Cable $1381$ 931 Regen – 50/50 $1041$ 801 Select - Grd $ Select - Cable $ Select – 50/50 $ Thin – 50/50 $ $ Ave WCLA & DNRLippke 1996 Cost/MBFCost MultCost/MBFCost Mult $ $ $ 921$ $ $ Harvest TypeLogging Cost Change Cost/MBF Regen - Grd- Regen - Cable- Regen – 50/50 ($58) Select - Grd- Select - Cable- Select – 50/50- Thin – 50/50 ($62)

48% are leaving logging!

Haul More than 1 million loads/year 150 million miles 2400 Truck Drivers Annual payroll = $100 million Employment = 0.65 Drivers/MMBF/Yr

Source: WCLA Survey, Timber purchasers survey, NW Truckers Coop, Log Truckers Conference 70% of Truckers are independents Average trucker is over 50 years of age Skilled workers are much harder to find than 10 years ago

WA DOT, WA DOL, and ODOT OR Trucks = 1593, WA Trucks = 1325 No. of WA Trucks down 36% since 1998

Sawn Wood Manufacture 12,000 mill workers in Washington Annual Payroll = $480 million Employment = 4.3 mill workers/MMBF/Yr

Average years in business = 60 Average No. Employees = 192 Average Production = 200MMBF/Yr Sales are 98% domestic Average worker age = 43 Skilled workers hard to find Sawmill Survey: 34 Respondents, 4.2 Billion BF Production WA is #2 Producer in US 40% plan to expand 0% will pay for certified logs

Reductions in log exports offset reductions in timber harvest for sawmills

Spotted Owl Closure of inefficient mills, improvements in technology, and shift to second growth result in overrun gains (west but not east). Source: DNR Mill Survey, RTI 2006 Survey

Coast Log Price (left side) Coast Lumber Return Net Log (right side) YearLmbr Price Westside Over Run = 2.23 Source: Random Lengths, Log Lines, NW Management, Future of WA Forests $440 -$40 East Log Price East Lumber Return Net Log (Not Good!) Eastside Over Run = 1.34

Washington Forest Products Manufacturers

Pulp and Paper 8,500 Pulp and paper workers in Washington Annual Payroll = $450 million Employment = 2.5 paper workers/MMBF/Yr

Washington Forest Products Manufacturers

No. of WA Pulp Mills & Pulp Export Facilities and Total Annual Production 1989 – % Reduction in Domestic Production 71% Reduction in Export Production

Forest Industry Summary 40,000 direct jobs & $1.7 billion in payroll 100,000 indirect jobs Gross Business Income (2005) = $14.6 billion