Summary and Recap: CSES’s Impact on the PNW Implications for Climate Services in the PNW Ed Miles CSES Review December 3, 2004.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

An integrated assessment of the impacts of climate change on Washington State Marketa McGuire Elsner University of Washington JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts.

Advertisements

Implement Wy-Kan-Ush-Mi Wa-Kish- Wit Watershed Assessment and Restoration Plan Now A Regional Support Program Sponsored by the Columbia River Inter-Tribal.

Briefing to the Caribbean Fisheries Management Council April 23, 2014.

Capitol Hill Oceans Week Wetlands Restoration Panel June 8, 2005 JOHN H. DUNNIGAN Ecosystem Goal Lead Capitol Hill Oceans Week June 8, 2005.

1 Preparing Washington for a Changing Climate An Integrated Climate Change Response Strategy Department of Ecology Hedia Adelsman, Executive Policy Advisor.

Design Criteria for a National Climate Service: Insights from a RISA Program Edward L. Miles, Amy K. Snover, and Lara Whitely.

Lara Whitely Binder Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group University of Washington December 2, 2004 CIG 5 Year Review Climate Science.

Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) By Edward L. Miles Team Leader JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group (CIG) Center for Science in the Earth System.

Alan F. Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier Amy K. Snover JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental.

Amy Snover, PhD Climate Impacts Group Center for Science in the Earth System University of Washington Integrated Assessment Methods and approach Illustrative.

Regional Climate Change Water Supply Planning Tools for Central Puget Sound Austin Polebitski and Richard Palmer Department of Civil and Environmental.

CSES Review 2004: Coastal Zone Moving to Horizontal Integration.

Generating a Comprehensive Climate Change Streamflow Scenarios Database for the Columbia River Basin Alan F. Hamlet Kurt Unger Philip W. Mote Eric Salathé.

Moving to Horizontal Connections: Design Concept 2 Impacts: 1. What are the critical interactions among resources (and resource management) that will.

CSES Vision & Strategies by Edward L. Miles Bloedel Professor of Marine Studies and Public Affairs Adjunct Professor of Fisheries Senior Fellow & Co-Director.

Introduction Integrated Assessment Conceptual Models.

The Climate Impacts Group: The Climate Impacts Group: Climate Information and Decision-making in the Pacific Northwest Lara Whitely Binder Center for Science.

Somerset County Council Climate Change Strategy Abigail Stretch Sustainable Development Officer.

WA State Climate Impacts Assessment (HB 1303) CIG Fall Forecasting Meeting October 2, 2007 Marketa McGuire Elsner.

Alan F. Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering.

PNW Aquatic Ecosystems and Climate: Where are we coming from and where are we going? R.C. Francis N. Mantua.

NOAA’s Habitat Blueprint- a multiagency approach to climate adaptation and increasing resiliency along the Sonoma coast Sonoma Adaptation Forum April 8,

Developing Tools to Enable Water Resource Managers to Plan for & Adapt to Climate Change Amy Snover, PhD Climate Impacts Group University of Washington.

Climate Impacts on Salmon Recovery in the Snohomish River Basin James Battin Krista Bartz Mary Ruckelshaus Hiroo Imaki Matthew Wiley Elizabeth Korb Richard.

A Preliminary Analysis of the Impacts of Climate Change on the Reliability on West Side Water Supplies Richard Palmer and Margaret Hahn Department of Civil.

Planning for Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest Amy Snover, PhD Climate Impacts Group Center for Science in the Earth System University of Washington.

Date Name of Meeting 1 Climate Change Impacts in the United States Third National Climate Assessment May 15, 2014 Cascade Water Alliance 15 th Anniversary.

Climate Futures and Oregon’s Coastal Communities A Survey and Strategy to Address the Effects of Climate Change on the Oregon Coast.

The National Climate Assessment: Overview Glynis C. Lough, Ph.D. National Climate Assessment US Global Change Research Program National Coordination Office.

Managing Drought: A Roadmap for Change in the United States

Dam Hazard Consequences Assessment

Pacific Fishery Management Council Jurisdiction –3 miles to 200 miles –4 states (includes Idaho) Members -- appointed –State governments –Federal Agencies.

A Partnership of U.S. Federal, State and Tribal Fish and Wildlife Agencies with support from the Association of Fish & Wildlife Agencies Shared solutions.

The National Climate Assessment Kathy Jacobs, Assistant Director for Climate Assessment and Adaptation Office of Science and Technology Policy North American.

U.S. GLOBEC THE VIEW FROM NOAA The Honorable Dr. Larry Robinson Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Conservation & Management National Oceanic & Atmospheric.

1 A Presentation to the NOAA Science Advisory Board Usha Varanasi, Ph.D. Science Director Philip Roni, Ph.D. Research Fishery Biologist Northwest Fisheries.

Climate Change and The NW Power Supply Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest University of Washington April 21, 2009.

Planning for Climate Change Climate science in the public interest Lara Whitely Binder Climate Impacts Group Center for Science in the Earth System Joint.

Center for Science in the Earth System Annual Meeting June 8, 2005 Briefing: Hydrology and water resources.

Looking at Impacts of Climate Change on Seattle City Light Lynn Best, Director Environmental Affairs.

Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) RISAs are comprised of physical, natural, engineering and social scientists who partner with stakeholders.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER MAKING RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT PLANS “CLIMATE PROOF” IN SPAIN.

Approaches and Mainstreaming of Ecosystem-based Adaptation in Europe International workshop “Mainstreaming an ecosystem based approach to climate change.

Balancing Drought and Flood in the Pacific Northwest: Doug McChesney Water Resources Program Washington Department of Ecology June 12, 2003 The Challenge.

Alan F. Hamlet, Philip W. Mote, Nate Mantua, Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University.

UNCLASS1 Dr. Gene Whitney Assistant Director for Environment Office of Science and Technology Policy Executive Office of the President WISP Meeting - July.

1 NOAA Priorities for an Ecosystem Approach to Management A Presentation to the NOAA Science Advisory Board John H. Dunnigan NOAA Ecosystem Goal Team Lead.

AMS 85 Dr. James R. Mahoney Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere | NOAA Assistant Administrator January 10, 2005 From Information.

Safeguarding California: Implementation Action Plans Listening Tour October 2015.

American Fisheries Society Incoming Governing Board Breakfast Scott Rayder Chief of Staff National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration September 15,

Climate change impacts and adaptation in the Pacific Northwest Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Climate Impacts.

Ahsha Tribble, Ph.D. Chief, Climate Services Division | NOAA National Weather Service May 20, 2009 Ahsha Tribble, Ph.D. Chief, Climate Services Division.

PNW Climate Change Impacts & Related Studies Marketa McGuire Elsner Climate Impacts Group Center for Science in the Earth System Joint Institute for the.

NOAA Climate Program Office Richard D. Rosen Senior Advisor for Climate Research CICS Science Meeting College Park, MD September 9, 2010.

NOAA 31st Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Boulder, Colorado October Challenges in Attribution of Climate Variability and Trends.

Note: This presentation contains only preliminary research results. If you have any questions, please contact Julie Vano at Thanks.

1 Climate Future: Science and Policy Randall M. Dole NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center Introduction Mountain Climate Sciences Symposium Lake Tahoe,

U N I T E D S T A T E S D E P A R T M E N T O F C O M M E R C E N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N.

EPA Global Change Research Program A TEN YEAR PLAN Presentation to 13 th Symposium on Global Change Studies Janet L. Gamble, Ph.D. National Center for.

International Task Force Meeting on Sustainable Tourism Climate Change and Tourism United Nations Environment Programme Division of Technology, Industry.

Alan F. Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering.

Alan F. Hamlet Edward L. Miles Amy K. Snover JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental.

Using Analysis and Tools to Inform Adaptation and Resilience Decisions -- the U.S. national experiences Jia Li Climate Change Division U.S. Environmental.

Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest

WA State Climate Impacts Assessment (HB 1303)

Montana Climate Assessment stakeholder driven, science informed

Cary A. Talbot, PE, PhD Program Manager

Drought Research and Outreach at CIG

Building Tribal Capacity for Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment

Lecture 09 Understandings of the Global Fisheries Crisis

Presentation transcript:

Summary and Recap: CSES’s Impact on the PNW Implications for Climate Services in the PNW Ed Miles CSES Review December 3, 2004

Summary and Recap: Contributions to Climate Impacts Science Defining the PDO Identifying ENSO and PDO impacts on PNW winter climate and key natural resources Identifying 20 th century trends on PNW temperature, precipitation, and snowpack Extending the paleorecord for PNW climate, streamflow, forests, and summer sea surface temperatures in the Strait of Juan de Fuca Defining and evaluating the potential impacts of global climate change on PNW climate and resources Identifying barriers to effective use of climate information and characteristics of adaptive institutions

Summary and Recap: Contributions to Decision Support (CV) Seasonal climate outlook for the PNW Climate forecasts for use in resource management Long-lead (1 year) seasonal streamflow forecasts based on ENSO/PDO Long-lead (1 year) seasonal marine survival forecasts for Oregon coastal coho salmon Mid-term (6 month) municipal reservoir forecasts Near-term (7-14 day) extreme weather risk forecasts Reinstitution of the Office of the Washington State Climatologist

Climate change temperature, snowpack, precipitation, and streamflow scenarios Climate change streamflow scenarios for water supply planning (bias-corrected, targeted locations) Client-based research consultancies (e.g., climate change impacts on municipal water supplies) Optimization models for evaluating impacts of climate change on streamflow management Technical assistance to watershed planning efforts Summary and Recap: Contributions to Decision Support (CC)

CSES’s Impact on the PNW

Influencing Operations and Policy Cultivated agency interest in information supporting planning for climate variability and change. Evidenced by: Strong attendance at meetings (e.g. fall forecast, climate/salmon, hydrologic scenarios, climate and water policy meetings) Research partnerships and consultancies (e.g., municipal water suppliers, ID Dept of Water Resources, Northwest Power and Conservation Council, USACE, Bureau of Reclamation) Requests for presentations (75+/year) Survey results demonstrating institutional learning in key sectors

A Sea Change in Perceptions 1995: Few managers saw role for climate info, recognized predictability of climate, or possessed a conceptual framework for applying climate info : El Niño and concomittant media attention stimulated widespread interest in information about climate variability and in CIG Most stakeholders unfamiliar with potential impacts of climate change and unprepared to use such information 2001: Senior-level water resources managers recognize climate change as a potentially significant threat to regional water resources; acknowledge climate change information as critical to future planning 2001/2: 50-year drought brings intense media attention to issue and CIG’s work  public & private pressure on State agencies to include CC impacts in long-term planning  significant involvement of CIG in multiple efforts [see below] 2003/4: Continued significant breakthroughs with stakeholder groups [highlighted below] Dramatic change in stakeholder perceptions of value and relevance of information about climate variability and change…

Impacts on Fisheries Science, Management and Recovery Planning Information about PDO and ecosystem regime shifts percolating through Pacific fisheries management agencies International Pacific Halibut Commission, International Pacific Salmon Commission, North Pacific Fisheries Management Council, Pacific Fisheries Management Council, AK/WA/OR Dept’s of Fish and Wildlife Collaboration on climate and coho life cycle studies with NWFSC (Lawson) and AFSC (Logerwell) 4 paper series led to formal collaboration arrangement with NWFSC Proposed NOAA/NWFSC initiative on climate change and freshwater ecosystems (CIG, NWFSC, U. Idaho) WA Dept. of Fish and Wildlife salmon management changed to recognize climate uncertainty Ongoing collaboration with Col. Riv. Intertribal Fish Commission CRITFC developed proposed alternative Col. Riv. operating plan based on CIG’s streamflow projections Current PhD work on chinook salmon (Sharma) NWFSC’s Oceans and Human Health Initiative collaboration Pilot study of climate change and Snohomish R. salmon recovery planning with NWFSC (Ruckelshaus, Battin, Palmer, Wiley)

Specific Examples of CSES’s Influence on Operations and Policy… CSES asked to participate on WA and OR advisory committees for West Coast Governors’ Climate Change Initiative and write a high-level briefing memorandum on PNW climate impacts for the governors’ offices (July ‘04) COE/CSES climate change impacts study proposed for the Green River. Larger goal = help draft national guidance for COE incorporation of climate change into project analysis (11/04) CSES asked by Skagit River System Coop. to develop a watershed-based climate impacts assessment for Skagit Basin (10/04)

Specific Examples: Influencing Ops and Policy cont’d… Utilities roundtable from the Puget Sound region established in fall 2004 to discuss the use of climate information in electric utilities management. Will meet 2x/year in March and October (key decision periods). Northwest Power and Conservation Council adding a climate change chapter to agency’s 5 th power plan. Looking at implications of climate change for streamflow in the power system. CSES asked by the COE to prepare memo on climate change impacts to Kootenai River flows as part of Section 7 ESA consultation on White Sturgeon (11/04). Query from Senator John Kerry’s office on legislation needed to help agencies adapt to changing streamflows as a result of climate change (5/04).

Studies for Seattle Public Utilities, Portland Water Dept, Tualatin Water Dept, ID Water Dept, Northwest Power and Conservation Council. Private sector and environmental organizations demanded that OR Water Dept include climate change in long-term planning as a result of CIG’s work and media coverage. Governor Locke’s keynote address at state watershed meeting stating that climate change is a major long-term challenge and referencing likely impacts on the PNW (11/19/02). Climate change added to North Pacific Research Board’s Strategic Plan for physical/biological and human dimensions research to encourage systematic study [ala CIG] in North Pacific. Specific Examples: Influencing Ops and Policy cont’d…

Key briefings and presentations… Invited speaker at U.K. AAAS/House Science Committee-sponsored briefing on climate change in D.C.; panel member at AAAS special session on climate change (Feb 11-13, 2004) Testimony on snowpack trends before U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation (April 26, 2004) 1 hour presentation on climate change before special session of the Idaho Committee on Natural Resources (June 3, 2004) 1 hour presentation on CSES, climate change, and decision support before Oregon House Subcommittee on Water (August 9, 2004) Specific Examples: Influencing Ops and Policy cont’d…

Work with the Media CSES has established an important and valuable working relationship with local and national media Hundreds of local and national news stories featuring CSES research, researchers since ‘97 Major Seattle P-I special report on 11/13/03 Stories in San Francisco Chronicle, Seattle P-I, Idaho Statesman, Albuquerque Journal, The Oregonian Featured in radio, television programs (KPLU (88.5 FM), KZOK (102.5 FM), PBS’s The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer)

All results to-date based on this model:

Institutionalizing the CSES Since its inception in 1995, CSES has become The leader in exploring the impacts of climate variability and change on the PNW A regionally-recognized and widely respected source for information about climate impacts, assessment methodologies, and potential response strategies This success results directly from the diverse, inter-disciplinary, integrated, and committed research team that makes up CSES This success has come despite the difficulty of sustaining an interdisciplinary group in a University environment due to: Low Salaries Lack of permanent positions Inability to reward non-academic pursuits Lack of permanent University commitment to address problems of PNW

Human activities (fishing) Freshwater habitat (water quality, quantity & timing) Estuarine habitat (water quality, mixing processes) Ocean habitat Climate change (altered water cycle) Human activities (resource & land use) Human activities (aquaculture, development) Climate change (sea level rise & ocean mixing) Health & Viability of PNW salmon To the Future: Integrated Watershed Analysis Responding to stakeholder demand for information applicable to real-world watershed planning issues

Implications for the Transition to Operational Climate Services in the PNW Developing the institutional capacity to provide climate services is neither quick nor easy. Requires: Defining the types of climate information that are most useful for the specified applications Producing very specific, mutually defined products Building trust with stakeholders over time Developing an integrated research and outreach team for continued innovation The successful delivery of climate services requires the establishment (and maintenance over time) of a middle-man between the providers and users of climate information Must have research and interpretive/outreach arms, e.g., climate extension service Individual agencies and industries assume operational responsibilities only after products are developed, tested, and demonstrated

Climate Impacts Group nature humans climate CLIMATE IMPACTS SCIENCE Adaptation & Change External Stresses Managed Natural Resource Systems Climate Research Community - Seasonal/interannual climate forecasting - Anthropogenic climate change projections - Diagnostic analysis and interpretation Institutional Barriers Nature Institutions - Resource Managers - Policymakers - User Communities

The Future… The transition to climate services for the PNW, and its ultimate form (University, Govt, Private Sector), remains to be mutually defined by NOAA and CSES.