Dec. 7th, New York State’s High School Demographics Considerations for Change SUNY Directors Meeting December 7, 2005 Herkimer County Community College Renée M. Overdyke Director of Enrollment Analysis Office of Enrollment Management SUNY System Administration

Dec. 7th, NYS High School Demographics Considerations for Change  NYS High School Graduate Projections  Regional Distributions  Racial/Ethnic Trends and Distributions  Future Analyses

Dec. 7th, NYS High School Projection M E T H O D O L O G Y  Originally developed by Dr. Glenwood Rowse, Coordinator, Office of Research and Information Systems NYSED.  Cohort Survival Method based on prior year grade-to-grade attrition (or growth) using at least four years of K-12 historical data.  Designed as a hybrid model that finds the best value, or “Grade Progression Rate” (GPR) to project future cohorts.  The model selects the best of 3 different ways of computing the GPR: (1.) basic average, (2.) weighted average and (3.) the “trend” or linear regression (R 2 ) of the most recent years.  The level of analysis is the county; county #’s & ratios are generally quite stable making this a reliable level of detail to work from.  Important to remember any projection figures will vary as new data becomes available.  Accordingly, the first several projected years are likely to be more accurate, with the margin of error increasing the further out we project. Data Source: The NYSED Institutional Master File

Dec. 7th, Updates coming soon!

Dec. 7th, 20055

6 SEE ABOVE CLINTON FRANKLIN ESSEX ST LAWRENCE HAMILTON WARREN WASHINGTON SARATOGA SCH’tdy FULTON MONT. HERKIMER ONEIDA OTSEGO SCHOHARIE SCH’tdy RENSSELAER COLUMBIA GREEN E MADISON LEWIS WESTCHESTER ROCKLAND ORANGE SULLIVAN DUTCHESS ULSTER DELAWARE TOMPKINS TIOGA BROOME CHENANGO OSWEGO JEFFERSON ONONDAGA CAYUGA QUEENS MANHATTAN. NYC – 5 Boroughs STATEN IS. BRONX WAYNE MONROE ORLEANS NIAGARA GENESEE ONTARIO SENECA LIVINGSTON WYOMIN G ERIE CHAUTAUQUA CATTARAUGUS ALLEGANY STEUBEN CHEMUNG SCHUYLER YATES NASSAU SUFFOLK Western Northeast NY C BROOKLYN % Change in Projected NYS High School Graduates 2004 (actual) vs (projected) CORTLAND Mid-Hudson Northern Genesee Valley Central Long Island +21% or more+11% to +20%+1% to +10% -1% to -10%-11% to -20%-21% or less ALBAN Y Putnam

Dec. 7th, SEE ABOVE CLINTON FRANKLIN ESSEX ST LAWRENCE HAMILTON WARREN WASHINGTON SARATOGA SCH’tdy FULTON MONT. HERKIMER ONEIDA OTSEGO SCHOHARIE SCH’tdy RENSSELAER COLUMBIA GREEN E MADISON LEWIS PUTNAM WESTCHESTER ROCKLAND ORANGE SULLIVAN DUTCHESS ULSTER DELAWARE TOMPKINS TIOGA BROOME CHENANGO OSWEGO JEFFERSON ONONDAGA CAYUGA QUEENS MANHATTAN. NYC – 5 Boroughs STATEN IS. BRONX WAYNE MONROE ORLEANS NIAGARA GENESEE ONTARIO SENECA LIVINGSTON WYOMIN G ERIE CHAUTAUQUA CATTARAUGUS ALLEGANY STEUBEN CHEMUNG SCHUYLER YATES NASSAU SUFFOLK Western Northeast NY C BROOKLYN % Change in Projected NYS High School Graduates 2004 (actual) vs (projected) CORTLAND Mid-Hudson Northern Genesee Valley Central Long Island +21% or more+11% to +20%+1% to +10% -1% to -10%-11% to -20%-21% or less ALBAN Y Putnam

Dec. 7th, 20058

9 NYS 12 th Grade Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity

Dec. 7th, A Future Glimpse: Regional Cohort Comparisons WESTERN REGION {Cohort size ranks 6th of the 8 Regents Regions.} Total19,962100% White15, % Hispanic7353.7% Asian/PI2791.4% Black2, % Native US3081.6% th Grade Cohort Projected % Change HS Grads: 2004 vs. 2010

Dec. 7th, A Future Glimpse: Regional Cohort Comparisons GENESEE VALLEY {Cohort size ranks 5th of the 8 Regents Regions.} Total19,793100% White15, % Hispanic1,0465.3% Asian/PI3661.8% Black3, % Native US560.3% th Grade Cohort Projected % Change HS Grads: 2004 vs. 2010

Dec. 7th, A Future Glimpse: Regional Cohort Comparisons CENTRAL REGION {Cohort size ranks 7th of the 8 Regents Regions.} Total17,362100% White14, % Hispanic4042.3% Asian/PI2691.5% Black1,5659.0% Native US1290.7% th Grade Cohort Projected % Change HS Grads: 2004 vs. 2010

Dec. 7th, A Future Glimpse: Regional Cohort Comparisons NORTHERN REGION {Cohort size ranks 8th of the 8 Regents Regions.} Total3,868100% White3, % Hispanic631.6% Asian/PI521.3% Black1493.9% Native US1223.2% th Grade Cohort Projected % Change HS Grads: 2004 vs. 2010

Dec. 7th, A Future Glimpse: Regional Cohort Comparisons NORTHEAST REGION {Cohort size ranks 4th of the 8 Regents Regions.} Total20,770100% White17, % Hispanic6993.4% Asian/PI3931.9% Black1,7398.4% Native US330.2% th Grade Cohort Projected % Change HS Grads: 2004 vs. 2010

Dec. 7th, A Future Glimpse: Regional Cohort Comparisons MID-HUDSON REGION {Cohort size ranks 3rd of the 8 Regents Regions.} Total34,044100% White22, % Hispanic4, % Asian/PI1,3524.0% Black4, % Native US610.2% th Grade Cohort Projected % Change HS Grads: 2004 vs. 2010

Dec. 7th, A Future Glimpse: Regional Cohort Comparisons NYC – 5 BOROUGHS {Cohort size ranks 1st of the 8 Regents Regions.} Total96,411100% White22, % Hispanic33, % Asian/PI10, % Black29, % Native US4390.5% th Grade Cohort Projected % Change HS Grads: 2004 vs. 2010

Dec. 7th, A Future Glimpse: Regional Cohort Comparisons LONG ISLAND {Cohort size ranks 2nd of the 8 Regents Regions.} Total41,169100% White29, % Hispanic5, % Asian/PI2,0445.0% Black4, % Native US690.2% th Grade Cohort Projected % Change HS Grads: 2004 vs. 2010

Dec. 7th, Notes of Interest Upstate/Downstate Divergences  Overall, Upstate NY’s general population grew by a mere 1.1 percent in the 1990’s, slower than the growth rate of every state but West Virginia and North Dakota.  Within Upstate NY, only two regions grew in the 1990’s, the Hudson Valley region which extends north of NYC through Albany and Saratoga.  Upstate NY’s racial/ethnic minority population is small and unevenly distributed among its metropolitan areas & segregated within them.  Overall, more people moved out of Upstate NY than moved in during the 1990’s; 1.7 million migrating out & 1.3 million coming in.  Nearly 30 percent of new residents in Upstate NY in the 1990s were prisoners. Source: Brookings Institute/US Census

Dec. 7th, Notes of Interest Upstate/Downstate Divergences  NYC’s general population grew considerably during the 1990’s, with a record 8 million residents in  Neighborhoods throughout the city grew, especially the outer boroughs and surrounding areas.  NYC owes it’s population growth and unrivaled diversity to new arrivals from abroad. Whites, blacks and Hispanic’s each make up at least a quarter of the city’s population.  The city added nearly 800,000 residents from abroad. Without this gain in immigrants, the city’s population would have decreased over the 1990’s.  Nearly half of the city’s foreign-born come from the Caribbean and Latin America, but significant numbers also hail from Eastern Europe and East Asia. Source: Brookings Institute/US Census

Dec. 7th, What’s Next???  Further refine and update projection model.  Drill down to the district level, so we can tie to SUNY’s top feeder schools.  Also try county (district?) level projections for racial/ethnic, gender, and socio-economic distributions.  Continue to tie NYS high school data to SUNY applicant and enrollee trends for planning purposes.  Take a closer look at the “Big Five” school districts.  Consider other NYS demographic features such as national origin, language, sub-cultural elements, etc.

Dec. 7th, Questions??? Contact: Renée M. Overdyke Director of Enrollment Analysis Office of Enrollment Management SUNY System Administration (518) New York State’s High School Demographics Considerations for Change THANK YOU