1 Floods to Droughts Wendy L. Pearson, Hydrologist NOAA NWS Central Region Headquarters, Kansas City, MO Wendy L. Pearson, Hydrologist NOAA NWS Central Region Headquarters, Kansas City, MO

s1308/es1308page01.cfm Living Near the River

NOAA’s NWS Mission Provide weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy

Flood Safety * Vehicles can be swept downstream in as little as 6 inches of moving water.

Water Cycle

How Water is Used & Reused

7 Weather and Climate Information: Temperature Precipitation Wind, … Weather and Climate Information: Temperature Precipitation Wind, … Hydrology and Water Resource Modeling Water Management Water Information “Summit to the Sea” Drought Mitigation Flood Control Public Safety (Flash Floods, Debris Flow) Water Supply Waterway Commerce Power Generation Agriculture Recreation Ecosystem Health Socioeconomic Sciences Reliable Water Information and Services for Decision Makers

What is a Flood? Flash Flood River Flood Low Water Crossing Hurricane Storm Surge Hurricane Inland Flooding Snowmelt Flooding Overland Flooding Dam Failures Flash Flood River Flood Low Water Crossing Hurricane Storm Surge Hurricane Inland Flooding Snowmelt Flooding Overland Flooding Dam Failures

Severity of Flooding Minor Flooding Moderate Flooding Major Flooding Record Flooding Minor Flooding Moderate Flooding Major Flooding Record Flooding

Frequency of Flooding 100 year flood = 1% Flood 500 year flood = 0.2% Flood

NOAA Water Forecasts: Where you are, when you need them Flood warnings for local communities Critical hydrologic information for neighborhoods and watersheds Water supply and soil condition forecasts for drought risk management Working Together: Federal, Tribal, State, and Local Agencies, Private Sector and Academia Snowpack Precipitation Soil moisture River flow Surface storage Ground water River Developed Shrubs/Grass Agriculture Wetlands Forecast Basin Forecast Point Water Predictions for Life Decisions

Weather Forecast Offices (Areas Outlined in Black) Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Camp Springs, MD NOAA Hydrologic Service Delivery 13 River Forecast Centers (Areas are in Color)

NWS Products and Services River Forecast Centers NCEP Graphical and Gridded Products WFO NEXRAD 1 WFO NEXRAD 2 WFO NEXRAD 3 NCEP QPF Short and Extended Range Streamflow ForecastsShort and Extended Range Streamflow Forecasts Flash Flood GuidanceFlash Flood Guidance Interagency Support ActivitiesInteragency Support Activities Hydrometeorological DiscussionsHydrometeorological Discussions Hydrometeorological Support Products and ServicesHydrometeorological Support Products and Services

NWS Products and Services Weather Forecast Offices Warnings ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Public Forecasts ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Gridded Products (many) (many) NEXRAD RFC Graphical, Gridded, and Tabular Products NCEP Weather and Climate Graphical and Gridded Products Public Forecast and WarningsPublic Forecast and Warnings Flash Flood Forecast and WarningsFlash Flood Forecast and Warnings Service Hydrologist Customer CoordinationService Hydrologist Customer Coordination Warning Coordination Meteorologist Service Coordination / OutreachWarning Coordination Meteorologist Service Coordination / Outreach

River level data

16 Provide improved water availability and flood warning information by leveraging NOAA’s infrastructure and expertise Modernize services through infusion of new science and technology Enhanced decision support Quantification of forecast certainty More accurate and timely forecasts and warnings Flood mapping Visually products Provide improved water availability and flood warning information by leveraging NOAA’s infrastructure and expertise Modernize services through infusion of new science and technology Enhanced decision support Quantification of forecast certainty More accurate and timely forecasts and warnings Flood mapping Visually products Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)

Outlook vs. Forecast

18 Probability Information Conditional Simulations (CS) 55 simulations each starting with the current model states only Blend of forecast and historic data drive the model Historical Simulation (HS) one simulation for entire period of record 55 Hydrographs starting over a range of initial conditions Represents the hydrologic model climatology Two Ensembles:

19 Decision Support Information Conveying Certainty Difference indicates relative departure from “normal” Low Flow Information

Iowa City 2009 Fargo, ND 2009 Cedar Rapids 2008 Cedar Rapids 2009

Generate high resolution soil moisture estimates Agricultural use Debris flows Drought Extend to finer scales Accommodate land use change impacts Distributed Hydrologic Modeling

Located with NWS river forecast locations Depicts flooding from minor to historical levels Communities can see potential impacts to the flood- prone areas NOAA is working with partners; states, FEMA, USGS, and USACE to communicate Flood Risks. Flood Inundation Mapping

23 NOAA National Weather Service AHPS Flood Mapping depends on partnerships, diligence, dedication, and commitment.

24 New Business Model for Water Forecasting: New Business Model for Water Forecasting: Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) Historically, organizations and groups: Worked independently Developed their own unlinked systems Duplicated efforts Used disparate tools and processes The new approach provides: Open system architecture to easily accommodate addition of models, data, and procedures Modern platform for collaboration with national/international agencies, universities, and private sector to leverage work of others Historical Approach New Approach

25 Enable Full Use of Existing and New Observing Systems Accelerate Research-to-Operations –Incorporate models and science developed by partners –Deploy integrated (water, climate, ecosystem information) services for time scales of hours to months Enable Full Use of Existing and New Observing Systems Accelerate Research-to-Operations –Incorporate models and science developed by partners –Deploy integrated (water, climate, ecosystem information) services for time scales of hours to months Emerging Strategy to Advance Water Forecasting User Needs and Requirements NOAA’s Unified Mission Delivery and Support Services Regional Demonstration Projects High Resolution Observations and Models NOAA’s R&D and Testbeds Private Sector NASA USDA Bureau of Reclamation EPA USACE Community Hydrologic Prediction System Academia Integrated Water Resources Science and Services (IWRSS) USGS

26 NOAA NOAA Hydromet Testbed Coastal Services Center Aligning multi-agency collaboration is essential –Provide the Nation with a seamless suite of consistent water resources monitoring and forecast information – summit to sea –Sustain quality of life and the natural environment –“No water agency can meet the full array of climate change-induced water problems on its own” USGSUSGS USACEUSACE Hydrology Program Hydrology Program Forecast Offices Hydraulic Engineerin g Center Water Resources Institute Remote Sensing Centers Cold Regions Research Lab Water Science Centers Geography Discipline Water Discipline Initial Federal Partnership for Integrated Water Resources Science and Services

27 Integrating to Address the Challenges For All Water Agencies To address growing demand for relevant and reliable water information, we must integrate our water science and services to provide our Nation with water information when and where it is needed. “In this century, the U.S. will be challenged to provide sufficient quantities of high- quality water to its growing population.” - National Research Council Estimates of economic losses from recent western droughts are “billions of dollars”. - Western Governors Association Competition for increasingly limited freshwater resources will make “water supply availability a major economic driver in the 21 st century”. - Nature The provision of adequate fresh-water resources for humans and ecosystems will be one of the most critical and potentially contentious issues facing society and governments at all levels in the 21 st century. - American Meteorological Society Integrating Water Science and Services

Drought Monitor

Homework Safety is always #1 Water runs down hill but which way is that? What kind of flood is it? What were the contributing factors? What factors will increase uncertainty of forecast? Can I help explain forecasts? Societal and Economic Impacts? What are the roles and responsibilities of local, state, and federal organizations involved? Media of all types are partners with NOAA NWS. We need storytellers to tell the flood forecast story! Safety is always #1 Water runs down hill but which way is that? What kind of flood is it? What were the contributing factors? What factors will increase uncertainty of forecast? Can I help explain forecasts? Societal and Economic Impacts? What are the roles and responsibilities of local, state, and federal organizations involved? Media of all types are partners with NOAA NWS. We need storytellers to tell the flood forecast story!

When FLOODS make Headlines Deaths Record Flooding Evacuations Possible Disasters Millions of Sandbags and thousands of volunteers Road closures and washouts Deaths Record Flooding Evacuations Possible Disasters Millions of Sandbags and thousands of volunteers Road closures and washouts

NWS Message Text and Graphics online Talking Points and Sound Bites Headlines Complex Situations Scientific Jargon Uncertainty Text and Graphics online Talking Points and Sound Bites Headlines Complex Situations Scientific Jargon Uncertainty

New Media Internet –U tube –Online Radio –TV station web pages –News Papers Online –Blogs –Twitter Internet –U tube –Online Radio –TV station web pages –News Papers Online –Blogs –Twitter

Flood News in Pictures red_river_flooding.htmlhttp:// red_river_flooding.html lood/ lood/ red_river_flooding.htmlhttp:// red_river_flooding.html lood/ lood/