CountrySomaliaKenyaEthiopia No. Affected3.7 m 4.8 m Example of response (Concern Worldwide) Food Vouchers (30,000 families) Cash, Seeds Nutrition, Water and Sanitation, Non Food Items Rural & Urban Nutrition & Livelihoods Cash Transfers Animal Off-take Animal Feeding Nutrition in 13 in (Districts) with Govt. Water Trucking Seeds in Jan- March Beneficiary Numbers250,00080, ,000 Horn of Africa Crisis – Evidence Ignored? 9 th November 2011 Austin Kennan Horn of Africa Crisis – Overview

Long term tragedy – people vulnerable to: 1. More frequent drought (now every 3 to 5 years). 2. Misguided policies affecting pastoralists and other marginalised groups. Somalia – conflict since Since 2008, escalating food & other essentials prices globally. became “Perfect Storm” in 2011 Horn of Africa Crisis – Evidence Ignored? | 9 th November 2011 | Austin Kennan

Early Warning System – trigger points FSNAU Post ‘Gu analysis August 2010 (Somalia) FEWSNET alerts in region since November 2010 FSNAU Post Deyr analysis January 2011 (Somalia) FEWSNET (10/10-03/11 )

Initial Impact (Somalia) Horn of Africa – Evidence Ignored? 9 th November, 2011 Austin Kennan River Shabelle, Lower Shabelle Region, April 2011 Village in Lower Shabelle Region, Somalia

June/July – Famine Declaration in Somalia June/July – the ‘Media Moment’ arrives. Dadaab Camp in Kenya and better access in Mogadishu Famine Declaration in Somalia Agencies arrive or scale up Funding now becomes available IDP Camp - Mogadishu July 2011

Picture – Late July 2011

Why was the evidence not acted upon? Horn of Africa Crisis – Evidence Ignored? | 9 th November 2011 | Austin Kennan Early warning evidence was there – in April, ‘famine’ word was being used. Economics – much cheaper to prevent (Niger 2005 – prevention cost $7 per person; response cost $23 per person) But... Political imperative globally – short term, other priorities, ‘war on terror’ focus. Access issue Specific contexts in Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia