Understanding Complex Dynamical Systems John UsherRossitsa Yalamova Org Theory Finance

Foundations of “New” Social Science Old and new assumptions: agents and equilibria Deliberate vs. emergent strategy Control vs. self- organization Fish / birds / termites (Schools, flocks, bldgs) GM: bidding paint robots Internet / Economy

Four Types of Complexity 1) Static complexity 2) Dynamic complexity 3) Evolving complexity 4) Self-organizing complexity

Type I: Static Complexity System structure does not change with time Count the number of transistors on a computer chip or number of cells in a life form Quantity => Pattern Fractal complication

Type II: Dynamic Complexity Adds fourth dimension of time Recognize temporal patterns (seasons) but lose spatial patterns (leaves) Not just predictable attributes but variable and extreme events

Type III: Evolving Complexity Open-ended, non- cyclic change Variation Selection Retention models Learning, art, galaxies as well as species Identifying patterns among systems not outcomes

Type IV: Self-Organizing Complexity System co-evolves with its environment Classification of system out of context is not a valid description Ecology or language Work on environment constraints & let system evolve a solution instead of trying to impose one

Autopoesis Egocentric organizations Survival must always be with, not against, the environment Example: depletion of fish stocks

Edge-of-Chaos Phase transitions Basins of attraction Edge-of-chaos situations can flip patterns Small changes = BIG effects

Mutual Causality Positive and Negative Feedback Loops Deviation amplifying and stabilizing Understand the system, not just linear cause and effect Intervention points

Management and Emergent Change Powerless power A loss of control or a loss of perceived control? Understanding limits of control & finding points of intervention Shaping patterns instead of planning

Guidance for the Pattern Shaper Sources: Tom Peters, Jim March and Robert Burgelman The world is a stream of problems that can be activated, bound in new ways, or by- passed Timing is important Realizing what levers you control and don’t control is important knowledge Modeling a change gains more ground than asking for it Skinner was right about reinforcement Nudge the system and ask questions to assess their effect And remember…

Lawlessness can be a good thing “I say unto you: one must still have chaos in oneself to be able to give birth to a dancing star.” (Nietzsche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra)

Now it gets really scary… WAIT