Development of the NEC baseline scenario State of play Janusz Cofala, Zbigniew Klimont International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

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Presentation transcript:

Development of the NEC baseline scenario State of play Janusz Cofala, Zbigniew Klimont International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

National scenarios provided for the NEC review CountryEnergyAgricultureEnergyAgriculture AUSTRIAYes ITALYYes BELGIUMYesNoLATVIAYes CYPRUSNo LITHUANIANo CZECH REP.Yes LUXEMBOURGNo DENMARKYes MALTANo ESTONIANoYesNETHERLANDSYes FINLANDYes POLANDYes FRANCEYes PORTUGALYes GERMANYYesNoSLOVAKIAYesNo GREECENo SLOVENIAYes HUNGARYYes SPAINYesNo IRELANDYes SWEDENYes ITALYYes UKYes LATVIAYes Total1916

Available energy and CO 2 projections PRIMES “with climate policy” scenario 2004 used for CAFE (“PRIMES CAFE”) – all MS PRIMES baseline projection 2005 (“PRIMES 2005”) – all MS National energy projections for NEC, late 2005, - 19 MS National CO 2 projections submitted in the “Policies and Measures” reports, July 2005 – 12 MS National CO 2 (and energy) projections reported in the 4 th National Communications to UNFCCC, March 2006, – 11 MS

Energy projections EU

2005 energy projections for 2020 (1) [PJ]

2005 energy projections for 2020 (2) [PJ]

2005 energy projections for 2020 (3) [PJ]

Comparison of CO 2 estimates for 1990 excl. LULUCF

CO 2 projections for 2010 relative to 1990 (provisional GAINS estimates)

CO 2 projections for 2020 National CO 2 vs. National NEC energy projections, relative to 1990 (provisional GAINS estimates)

CO 2 projections for 2020 National NEC energy projections vs. PRIMES, relative to 1990 (provisional GAINS estimates)

Conclusions Some inconsistencies between national CO 2 and NEC energy projections not yet resolved – further consultations There are differences between national and PRIMES energy projections for MS Both projections are likely to exceed in at EU level - the Kyoto target for 2012 This is relevant because air pollutant (baseline) emissions and control costs are sensitive towards the stringency of the GHG/CO 2 target