Development of a landscape-scale model for restoration planning following SPB induced tree mortality John Waldron 1, David Cairns 2, Robert Coulson 3, Charles Lafon 2, Maria Tchakerian 3, Kier Klepzig 4 1. Knowledge Engineering Laboratory, Bent Creek Experimental Forest, 1577 Brevard Road, Asheville, NC Department of Geography, 810 Eller O&M Building, Texas A&M University, College Station TX, Knowledge Engineering Laboratory, Department of Entomology, 408 Heep Center, Texas A&M University, College Station TX, Southern Pine Beetle: Ecology, Behavior and Management, USDA-Forest Service Southern Research Station, 2500 Shreveport Highway, Pineville, LA

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Project approach Use LANDIS to model the restoration of fire-controlled native Pitch pine/Table-Mountain Pine ecosystems in montane Western North Carolina.

PASTFUTUREPRESENT

LANDIS (Landscape Disturbance and Succession) was originally designed to meet the following specifications: ● uses satellite imagery or raster GIS for initial input ● operates regionally with cell sizes ranging from m ● simulates succession dynamics at 10-year intervals ● simulates forest change at the species level ● simulates disturbances by wind, fire, and harvesting ● simulates the interaction between succession and disturbances simultaneously ● seed dispersal is simulated in a “spatially explicit” manner

SPB

Needs Assessment for LANDIS SPB Restoration Project: 1. Determine the LANDTYPE CLASSES (LC) for the project area a. determine probability of various woody species occurring in each area 2. Create a LANDTYPE MAP (LT) -A raster map reflecting the location of the LC 3. Create a SPECIES FILE (SF) -Contains information regarding attributes of each species included 4. Create a SPECIES COMPOSITION FILE (SCF) -Listing of communities of species from the SF that are found within each LC 5. Create a SPECIES COMPOSITION MAP (SCM) -A raster map reflecting locations of communities in the SCF 6. Create a DISTURBANCE FILE (DF) -This contains information about FIRE, WIND, & HARVESTING 7. Create a SPB-BDA FILE (SBF) -Landtype modifiers, disturbance modifiers, temporal parameters, species vulnerabilities, neighborhood outbreak modifiers…

LandType ClassCommunity TypesElevation Range (m)SlopeAspect Spruce Fir >1671 Northern Hardwood Cove Hardwood/Northern Hardwood Cove Hardwood SW-NE Mesic Oak NE-SW Cove Hardwood >27.6%SW-NE Xeric Oak >15%E-S Mixed Mesic Hardwood Gentle (<15%) Mixed Mesic Hardwood N-NE Xeric Oak NE-SW Pine SW-N Xeric Oak <551

Xeric #pinuechi# 0.05#betupapy# 0.0#pinepung# 0.25#pinurigi# 0.25#pinustro# 0.75#pinuvirg# 0.0#thujacan# 0.05#prunpenn# #fire curves# #fire class # #wind curve# #mod fire cl# a. Minimum age cohort present on site before a highly shade tolerant tree can establish b. Mean number of years needed for fire to burn the entire landtype c. Fire ignition coefficient (0 or 1) d. Fire probability e. Time since last windthrow f. Time since last fire a b c d e f

Needs Assessment for LANDIS SPB Restoration Project: 1. Determine the LANDTYPE CLASSES (LC) for the project area a. determine probability of various woody species occurring in each area 2. Create a LANDTYPE MAP (LT) -A raster map reflecting the location of the LC 3. Create a SPECIES FILE (SF) -Contains information regarding attributes of each species included 4. Create a SPECIES COMPOSITION FILE (SCF) -Listing of communities of species from the SF that are found within each LC 5. Create a SPECIES COMPOSITION MAP (SCM) -A raster map reflecting locations of communities in the SCF 6. Create a DISTURBANCE FILE (DF) -This contains information about FIRE, WIND, & HARVESTING 7. Create a SPB-BDA FILE (SBF) -Landtype modifiers, disturbance modifiers, temporal parameters, species vulnerabilities, neighborhood outbreak modifiers…

Needs Assessment for LANDIS SPB Restoration Project: 1. Determine the LANDTYPE CLASSES (LC) for the project area a. determine probability of various woody species occurring in each area 2. Create a LANDTYPE MAP (LT) -A raster map reflecting the location of the LC 3. Create a SPECIES FILE (SF) -Contains information regarding attributes of each species included 4. Create a SPECIES COMPOSITION FILE (SCF) -Listing of communities of species from the SF that are found within each LC 5. Create a SPECIES COMPOSITION MAP (SCM) -A raster map reflecting locations of communities in the SCF 6. Create a DISTURBANCE FILE (DF) -This contains information about FIRE, WIND, & HARVESTING 7. Create a SPB-BDA FILE (SBF) -Landtype modifiers, disturbance modifiers, temporal parameters, species vulnerabilities, neighborhood outbreak modifiers…

name longevitymaturity shadefireeff_seed max_seedveg_propsprout reclass Abies fraseri Acer rubrum Acer saccharum Aesculus flava (octandra) Alnus serrulata Amelanchier arborea Betula alleghaniensis (lutea) Betula lenta Betula papyrifera Carya alba (tomentosa) Carya glabra Cornus florida Fagus grandifolia Fraxinus americana Liriodendron tulipifera Magnolia acuminata Magnolia fraseri Magnolia tripetala Nyssa sylvatica Ostrya virginiana

Oxydendrum arboreum Picea rubens Pinus pungens Pinus rigida Pinus strobus Pinus virginiana Platanus occidentalis Prunus pensylvanica Prunus serotina Quercus alba Quercus coccinea Quercus prinus Quercus rubra Quercus velutina Robinia pseudo-acacia Salix nigra Sassafras albidum Sorbus americana Tilia americana var. heterophylla Tsuga canadensis Tsuga caroliniana

Needs Assessment for LANDIS SPB Restoration Project: 1. Determine the LANDTYPE CLASSES (LC) for the project area a. determine probability of various woody species occurring in each area 2. Create a LANDTYPE MAP (LT) -A raster map reflecting the location of the LC 3. Create a SPECIES FILE (SF) -Contains information regarding attributes of each species included 4. Create a SPECIES COMPOSITION FILE (SCF) -Listing of communities of species from the SF that are found within each LC 5. Create a SPECIES COMPOSITION MAP (SCM) -A raster map reflecting locations of communities in the SCF 6. Create a DISTURBANCE FILE (DF) -This contains information about FIRE, WIND, & HARVESTING 7. Create a SPB-BDA FILE (SBF) -Landtype modifiers, disturbance modifiers, temporal parameters, species vulnerabilities, neighborhood outbreak modifiers…

# Xeric - early - Common (1) # #prunpenn# #pinuechi# #betupapy# #pinepung# #pinurigi# #pinustro# #pinuvirg# #thujacan# # Xeric - Mid - Common (2) # # Xeric - Late - Common (3) # # Xeric - early - Rare (4) # First number is a vegetative propagation flag And the remaining numbers are the age cohorts present

Needs Assessment for LANDIS SPB Restoration Project: 1. Determine the LANDTYPE CLASSES (LC) for the project area a. determine probability of various woody species occurring in each area 2. Create a LANDTYPE MAP (LT) -A raster map reflecting the location of the LC 3. Create a SPECIES FILE (SF) -Contains information regarding attributes of each species included 4. Create a SPECIES COMPOSITION FILE (SCF) -Listing of communities of species from the SF that are found within each LC 5. Create a SPECIES COMPOSITION MAP (SCM) -A raster map reflecting locations of communities in the SCF 6. Create a DISTURBANCE FILE (DF) -This contains information about FIRE, WIND, & HARVESTING 7. Create a SPB-BDA FILE (SBF) -Landtype modifiers, disturbance modifiers, temporal parameters, species vulnerabilities, neighborhood outbreak modifiers…

Needs Assessment for LANDIS SPB Restoration Project: 1. Determine the LANDTYPE CLASSES (LC) for the project area a. determine probability of various woody species occurring in each area 2. Create a LANDTYPE MAP (LT) -A raster map reflecting the location of the LC 3. Create a SPECIES FILE (SF) -Contains information regarding attributes of each species included 4. Create a SPECIES COMPOSITION FILE (SCF) -Listing of communities of species from the SF that are found within each LC 5. Create a SPECIES COMPOSITION MAP (SCM) -A raster map reflecting locations of communities in the SCF 6. Create a DISTURBANCE FILE (DF) -This contains information about FIRE, WIND, & HARVESTING 7. Create a SPB-BDA FILE (SBF) -Landtype modifiers, disturbance modifiers, temporal parameters, species vulnerabilities, neighborhood outbreak modifiers…

Needs Assessment for LANDIS SPB Restoration Project: 1. Determine the LANDTYPE CLASSES (LC) for the project area a. determine probability of various woody species occurring in each area 2. Create a LANDTYPE MAP (LT) -A raster map reflecting the location of the LC 3. Create a SPECIES FILE (SF) -Contains information regarding attributes of each species included 4. Create a SPECIES COMPOSITION FILE (SCF) -Listing of communities of species from the SF that are found within each LC 5. Create a SPECIES COMPOSITION MAP (SCM) -A raster map reflecting locations of communities in the SCF 6. Create a DISTURBANCE FILE (DF) -This contains information about FIRE, WIND, & HARVESTING 7. Create a SPB-BDA FILE (SBF) -Landtype modifiers, disturbance modifiers, temporal parameters, species vulnerabilities, neighborhood outbreak modifiers…

LANDIS-BDA: Biological Disturbance Agent module Models Biological Disturbances (Disease & Insect) 5 Main Elements 1) Site Resource Dominance (SRD)- Indicates quality of food resources on a given site (cell) 2) Site Resource Modifiers- Adjust SRD to reflect variation in in food resources by land type and disturbance 3) Neighborhood Resource Dominance- distance-weighted average of SRD in all sites within a user-specified neighborhood. Combined with SRD to calculate Site Vulnerability, which dictates severity of Outbreak. 4) Temporal Disturbance Function- Determines temporal behavior of Biological Agent (chronic, cyclic, random) 5) Dispersal- Uses a search vector to identify barriers to annual dispersal distance in 4 or 8 directions. (UNDER DEVELOPMENT)

Spruce Budworm Example Based on data provided by B. Sturtevant 100m x 100m cells 512 x 512 cell landscape

Spruce Budworm Example Based on data provided by B. Sturtevant 100m x 100m cells 512 x 512 cell landscape

BUDWORM 20 YEARS

BUDWORM 60 YEARS

BUDWORM 100 YEARS

BUDWORM 140 YEARS

BUDWORM 180 YEARS

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60

100

140

180

220

PRESENCE/ABSENCE OF BALSAM FIR AT YEAR 10

PRESENCE/ABSENCE OF BALSAM FIR AT YEAR 20

PRESENCE/ABSENCE OF BALSAM FIR AT YEAR 60

PRESENCE/ABSENCE OF BALSAM FIR AT YEAR 100

PRESENCE/ABSENCE OF BALSAM FIR AT YEAR 120

PRESENCE/ABSENCE OF BALSAM FIR AT YEAR 130

PRESENCE/ABSENCE OF BALSAM FIR AT YEAR 140

PRESENCE/ABSENCE OF BALSAM FIR AT YEAR 150

PRESENCE/ABSENCE OF BALSAM FIR AT YEAR 180

PRESENCE/ABSENCE OF BALSAM FIR AT YEAR 200

PRESENCE/ABSENCE OF BALSAM FIR AT YEAR 220

PRESENCE/ABSENCE OF BALSAM FIR AT YEAR 250

Next Step: SPB-BDA 1. Calibration of LANDIS to fit our study area 2. Calibration of BDA to fit SPB behavior 3. Testing of Model on Simple Hypothetical Landscapes 4. Engaging the model in restoration scenarios 5. Analysis of data 6. Dissemination of Results

Anticipated Products 1. Better understanding of SPB at Landscape Scale 2. Knowledge of how best to re-structure SPB infested landscapes to make them: a) More SPB Resistant b) Ecologically correct 3. A tool to aid in constructing more robust management plans for restoring forests disturbed by SPB