Morningstar June 2008 Richard Quin - Director, Credit Suisse

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Presentation transcript:

Morningstar June 2008 Richard Quin - Director, Credit Suisse Portfolio Manager APAC, Leveraged Investments Group Alternative Investments CREDIT SUISSE ASSET MANAGEMENT (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED ABN 57 007 305 384 AFSL 238390 Asset Management (Size 9 pt, Bold); use all CAPS if legal entity

Disclaimer Issued by Credit Suisse Asset Management (Australia) Limited (CSAMA) ABN 57 007 305 384 AFSL 238390. CSAMA has used its best endeavours to ensure the accuracy, reliability and completeness of the information contained in this presentation. Subject to law, CSAMA, its directors, employees, affiliates and consultants do not provide any warranty or accept any liability for errors or omissions or any losses or damages suffered by the recipient of this presentation or any other person. This presentation has been prepared for general information only for the intended recipients. It does not take into account an individual’s objectives, financial situation or needs, which are necessary considerations before making any investment decision. Opinions constitute our judgment at the time of issue and are subject to change. Offers for investments in the Credit Suisse Private Investment Funds, Select Investment Funds and Wholesale Funds are made in, or accompanied by a copy of the relevant current Product Disclosure Statement (PDS). You should consider the PDS in deciding whether to acquire or continue to hold the product. If you wish to invest, you will need to complete an application form contained in, or which accompanies the current PDS. Please contact us directly should you have any queries in relation to the information in this presentation on 1300 366 890, or to obtain a copy of the PDS. Net Returns are calculated using pre-distribution month end withdrawal unit prices, and assumes all income is reinvested in additional units. Total returns are calculated by adding back the Management Costs deducted. As benchmark performance is gross of fees, we recommend that the total returns performance figures be used when comparing our performance with the relevant benchmark performance. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Returns are volatile and may vary from year to year. CREDIT SUISSE ASSET MANAGEMENT (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED ABN 57 007 305 384 AFSL 238390

Investment grade spreads at recessionary levels 31 Jan 1991 BBB 270, 5.16% excess returns 31-Jan- 1992 11 Oct 2002 BBB 365, 13% excess returns by 31-Oct-2003 Source: Lehman Spreads to 6th June 2008 CREDIT SUISSE ASSET MANAGEMENT (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED ABN 57 007 305 384 AFSL 238390

Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities - CMBS Source: Lehman Spreads to June 6th 2008 CREDIT SUISSE ASSET MANAGEMENT (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED ABN 57 007 305 384 AFSL 238390

Bank regulatory capital credit spreads from AA rated banks ? Source: Lehman Spreads to June 6th 2008 CREDIT SUISSE ASSET MANAGEMENT (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED ABN 57 007 305 384 AFSL 238390

High yield bonds spreads not near recessionary levels 11 Oct 2002 Single B 1,044bps, by 17 Oct 2003 excess returns of 30%. 11 Oct 2002 Double BB 700bps by 10 Oct 2003 excess returns of 19%. CREDIT SUISSE ASSET MANAGEMENT (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED ABN 57 007 305 384 AFSL 238390

Loans look cheaper than High Yield Bonds CREDIT SUISSE ASSET MANAGEMENT (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED ABN 57 007 305 384 AFSL 238390

Peak in excess returns follows peak in spreads – Investment Grade \\ssyd50p20003.csam.cs-group.com\wrkgrps$\investmt\alternatives\Data\Excess return graphs\Excess return and spread.xls CREDIT SUISSE ASSET MANAGEMENT (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED ABN 57 007 305 384 AFSL 238390

Peak in excess returns follows peak in spreads – Leveraged Loans \\ssyd50p20003.csam.cs-group.com\wrkgrps$\investmt\alternatives\Data\Excess return graphs\Excess return and spread.xls CREDIT SUISSE ASSET MANAGEMENT (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED ABN 57 007 305 384 AFSL 238390

Peak excess returns follows peak in spreads – High Yield Bonds \\ssyd50p20003.csam.cs-group.com\wrkgrps$\investmt\alternatives\Data\Excess return graphs\Excess return and spread.xls CREDIT SUISSE ASSET MANAGEMENT (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED ABN 57 007 305 384 AFSL 238390

Summary Higher spreads, Fees, Covenants and Discounts Forced deleveraging repriced asset classes early in the cycle Technical dislocation (liquidity crunch) or credit crunch – weeding Risk still remains general or systemic and is not yet company specific Better lending term good for banks and credit investors Higher spreads, Fees, Covenants and Discounts Poorer fundamentals Priced for disaster not perfection. CREDIT SUISSE ASSET MANAGEMENT (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED ABN 57 007 305 384 AFSL 238390

Current market opportunities Risk Management Less cash, Secured but look for opportunities down the capital structure 2008 picking through the wreckage Assets sold by geared investors: loans, CLOs and bank capital securities Hedging company specific risk or idiosyncratic risk Basis trades, Equity delta, a few short trades Tactical trading Not a deer in the headlights. CREDIT SUISSE ASSET MANAGEMENT (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED ABN 57 007 305 384 AFSL 238390